[SilverTongueFox]

CFB Week Three
1* Michigan TT under 41
1* Rice/N Texas over 57
1* Nebraska/Miami over 58
1* Wisconsin TT over 46 (-120)
1* Georgia Tech -2'
1* W Kentucky/Indiana over 71'
1* William & Mary +25'

I like the over as well in the Rice/N Texas game. Might have to tail you.
*edit went to book this one and the line dropped from 57 to 54.5. Whats up with that???

I lean Tech too bc I think there qb is a stud in that triple option and they've look very good with him going back to last year. However, my concern is how good is Tech's defense. We don't know bc they have not played anyone. Notre Dame on the other hand has played 2 teams with a pulse at least (although I guess we could argue Texas). lol. I think ND's backup got enough game snaps last week and then getting all reps in practice this week that he should be able to handle it. Plus, he probably gained a bit of confidence the way that UVA game ended. For me, this is a tough one to pick. I've seen times where teams stop that dive and the triple option goes to $hit and bogs down. I've seen times where ball security and handoff/pitch exchanges in the triple option become an issue and turn games. I looked at this really hard. But not ready to jump on Tech, on the road, first test this year even though I think they end up the higher ranked team with a good chance to play for the ACC title.

Good luck brother

[BiffTFinancial]

W&M Tribe play is (-120) for the record

CFB Week Three updated card
1* Michigan TT under 41
1* Rice/N Texas over 57
1* Nebraska/Miami over 58
1* Wisconsin TT over 46 (-120)
1* Georgia Tech -2'
1* W Kentucky/Indiana over 71'
1* William & Mary +25' (-120)

[BiffTFinancial]

I like the over as well in the Rice/N Texas game. Might have to tail you.
*edit went to book this one and the line dropped from 57 to 54.5. Whats up with that???

I lean Tech too bc I think there qb is a stud in that triple option and they've look very good with him going back to last year. However, my concern is how good is Tech's defense. We don't know bc they have not played anyone. Notre Dame on the other hand has played 2 teams with a pulse at least (although I guess we could argue Texas). lol. I think ND's backup got enough game snaps last week and then getting all reps in practice this week that he should be able to handle it. Plus, he probably gained a bit of confidence the way that UVA game ended. For me, this is a tough one to pick. I've seen times where teams stop that dive and the triple option goes to $hit and bogs down. I've seen times where ball security and handoff/pitch exchanges in the triple option become an issue and turn games. I looked at this really hard. But not ready to jump on Tech, on the road, first test this year even though I think they end up the higher ranked team with a good chance to play for the ACC title.

Good luck brother

Hello, STF! No clue on Rice total. Did not see that coming at all. Pissed that i missed a shot at the sunny side of 56 but still like the play. May sprinkle a little more on it (55 now). For what it's worth, total opened at 55', so while i got a bad number, line movement isn't a major cause for concern in my opinion. Rice is an ideal CFB over team.

Your reservations about the Wreck are well-founded and thanks for posting your thoughts. Irish have injuries all over the place - Zaire of course, but they've lost a bunch of defenders to injury since start of camp. I think that Jarron Jones is the guy that they really miss this week. ND hasn't played GT for a long time, and they've struggled against the only triple option team they've faced last few years (Navy). I think that the line says it all (though was expecting it to go to 3 today) and ND's defense won't be up to the task. BOL whatever you decide, my friend!

[survive]

I really like this tech team also. My only problem with betting them tomorrow is the line seems inflated. If Zaire were playing I think tech would be getting 3 or more points, so we're talking about at least a 5.5 line difference and I just don't know if Zaire is worth that many.

[SilverTongueFox]

Hello, STF! No clue on Rice total. Did not see that coming at all. Pissed that i missed a shot at the sunny side of 56 but still like the play. May sprinkle a little more on it (55 now). For what it's worth, total opened at 55', so while i got a bad number, line movement isn't a major cause for concern in my opinion. Rice is an ideal CFB over team.

I'm going to tail the over.. And look at it as I'm just glad I got it after and not right before it came back down.

For what it's worth, AU is worth a look brother. I think AU has pinpoint focus after last weeks almost disaster. I think getting TD is a nice gift. And think it could go either way. LSU has a great RB but they are nothing special on offense and can't see them running it up & down the field on AU. I'm putting a bit of faith that AU qb cleans it up this week but feel good this game is played within a td.

I also like Duke and got it when it was -3. Cutcliff is something like 10-2 ATS in non conference L3 years.

Maybe the Gators. UK hasn't beaten Florida since 1986 and if they couldn't get it done under the Muschamp era not sure they ever will. May throw Florida in a ML parlay. Just much better athletes and got the mental edge. An aside, the McElwain sideline explosion has been covered all week. I expect Gator players ready to knock that taste out of medias mouth with a dominating performance.

Not much else I'm liking tomorrow.

Good luck brother!

[BiffTFinancial]

I'm going to tail the over.. And look at it as I'm just glad I got it after and not right before it came back down.

For what it's worth, AU is worth a look brother. I think AU has pinpoint focus after last weeks almost disaster. I think getting TD is a nice gift. And think it could go either way. LSU has a great RB but they are nothing special on offense and can't see them running it up & down the field on AU. I'm putting a bit of faith that AU qb cleans it up this week but feel good this game is played within a td.

I also like Duke and got it when it was -3. Cutcliff is something like 10-2 ATS in non conference L3 years.

Maybe the Gators. UK hasn't beaten Florida since 1986 and if they couldn't get it done under the Muschamp era not sure they ever will. May throw Florida in a ML parlay. Just much better athletes and got the mental edge. An aside, the McElwain sideline explosion has been covered all week. I expect Gator players ready to knock that taste out of medias mouth with a dominating performance.

Not much else I'm liking tomorrow.

Good luck brother!

Agree that Auburn is the side - took them in my contests - but don't think i like them enough to make a play on them. Have real concerns that Jeremy Johnson might be a one-read QB, incapable of maximizing the potential of Malzahn's offense. Today should answer that question.

Agree Duke at -3. That's one of those games where the line tells the story (similar to GT in my opinion) - it's either the fave or pass.

Gators in ML parlay is intriguing. You could pair them with, say, a team like Cal, Toledo, Navy, Bama and have a nice + money play.

BOL today brotha!

[BiffTFinancial]

I really like this tech team also. My only problem with betting them tomorrow is the line seems inflated. If Zaire were playing I think tech would be getting 3 or more points, so we're talking about at least a 5.5 line difference and I just don't know if Zaire is worth that many.

I hear you in that you don't want to be on the wrong side of an overadjustment, and this may well be an overadjustment. That said, i'm more concerned about an overadjustment when it comes to covering significant points, and here, we're talking more about win/loss (if either team wins, they're likely to do so by 3+ points). When i look at the fair ML for this game (iron out the juice), i figure that, if you're right, the implied odds of GT win went from around 40% (-150 or so/-3 or so ND) to around 55% (-125 or so/-2' or so GT). Bottom-line: wish that i knew what line was before Zaire injury (certainly, places like 5D offered future on it), because when i capped the game, i did not adjust nearly that much for Zaire (probably not even half that much). In the end, i like the triple option to give ND's defense problems and dominate time of possession in the second half, and i give GT 60-65% chance of winning this game based upon how i see the matchups, so it's a play for me. BOL whatever you decide!

[2daBank]

agree on gtech, i think far too much being made of them playing cupcakes but bottom line is this team ran threw a bunch of good teams the end of last season.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Iowa State team total under 26

CFB Week Three updated card
1* Michigan TT under 41 - WINNER
1* Rice/N Texas over 57 - WINNER
1* Nebraska/Miami over 58 - WINNER
1* Wisconsin TT over 46 (-120) - LOSER
1* Georgia Tech -2' - LOSER
1* W Kentucky/Indiana over 71' - WINNER
1* William & Mary +25' - WINNER
1* Iowa State TT under 26

BOL to all tonight

[2daBank]

looks to me like fading mizzou the play in the mizzou gm this week, dont get me wrong i know jack shit bout ucon but mizzou shouldnt be laying this many to any team with a pulse. i really like their defense but the offense isnt all that good and will also make mistakes that give points away. if ucon can muster 10 here i think they cover.

so easy. lol

[Smutbucket]

Nice day Biff

Looking forward to any nfl selections you got for tomorrow

One total that stood out to me was tampa bay/new orleans over 47.5

[2daBank]

Nice day Biff

Looking forward to any nfl selections you got for tomorrow

One total that stood out to me was tampa bay/new orleans over 47.5

that one sticks out for sure. almost worried it seems so damn easy and would worry that martin could really control this gm if lovie chooses to protect shamis early..

[BiffTFinancial]

CFB Week Three final card
1* Michigan TT under 41 - WINNER
1* Rice/N Texas over 57 - WINNER
1* Nebraska/Miami over 58 - WINNER
1* Wisconsin TT over 46 (-120) - LOSER
1* Georgia Tech -2' - LOSER
1* W Kentucky/Indiana over 71' - WINNER
1* William & Mary +25' (-120) - WINNER
1* Iowa State TT under 26 - WINNER

6-2 +3.7u

11-10 -0.1u season to date

[BiffTFinancial]

NFL Week Two
1* Raiders team total under 18'
1* Seahawks team total over 23

[BiffTFinancial]

Nice day Biff

Looking forward to any nfl selections you got for tomorrow

One total that stood out to me was tampa bay/new orleans over 47.5

that one sticks out for sure. almost worried it seems so damn easy and would worry that martin could really control this gm if lovie chooses to protect shamis early..

Thanks, fellas! Lean over in TB/NO game but probably passing. I like these two TTs better than anything else and not inclined to make more than a couple of plays. Over the years, i've had so many Sundays when i gave back everything from a strong Saturday.

Browns TT under 20 also worth a look, but i'm going to the game and don't want to be against the home team (notwithstanding the fact that i have zero confidence in Manziel).

[BiffTFinancial]

I really like this tech team also. My only problem with betting them tomorrow is the line seems inflated. If Zaire were playing I think tech would be getting 3 or more points, so we're talking about at least a 5.5 line difference and I just don't know if Zaire is worth that many.

I hear you in that you don't want to be on the wrong side of an overadjustment, and this may well be an overadjustment. That said, i'm more concerned about an overadjustment when it comes to covering significant points, and here, we're talking more about win/loss (if either team wins, they're likely to do so by 3+ points). When i look at the fair ML for this game (iron out the juice), i figure that, if you're right, the implied odds of GT win went from around 40% (-150 or so/-3 or so ND) to around 55% (-125 or so/-2' or so GT). Bottom-line: wish that i knew what line was before Zaire injury (certainly, places like 5D offered future on it), because when i capped the game, i did not adjust nearly that much for Zaire (probably not even half that much). In the end, i like the triple option to give ND's defense problems and dominate time of possession in the second half, and i give GT 60-65% chance of winning this game based upon how i see the matchups, so it's a play for me. BOL whatever you decide!

Figures that i wrote a 500-word essay about one of the worst plays on my card. Oh well, here's hoping that you ended up passing on GT!

[2daBank]

Thanks, fellas! Lean over in TB/NO game but probably passing. I like these two TTs better than anything else and not inclined to make more than a couple of plays. Over the years, i've had so many Sundays when i gave back everything from a strong Saturday.

Browns TT under 20 also worth a look, but i'm going to the game and don't want to be against the home team (notwithstanding the fact that i have zero confidence in Manziel).

any other year browns would be one of the best week 2 plays you can ask for. maybe they still are, the setup is beyond perfect but i just cant trust the little clown playing qb or the rest of that team.

im not playing the tb/no total either,. really think there a high possibility lovie goes ultra conservative early and think if he does martin will prob have more than enough success to limit possessions in the 1st half. i could def see a 1st half under 2nd half over type scenario or saints just to continue where they left off last year and keep stinking up the joint.

prefer cincy/sd over to that one where my only worry is sd playing their typical clock sucking protect the d offense, i just dont think they will be able to for long cause i think cincy will score at will on them and force rivers to sling it around.

sea tt over makes a lot of sense. that def looks high scoring to me. lynch outta go for a buck fifty and a couple scores alone,. between wilson, graham, and lockett im sure they can muster another 10.. gl brother, nfl week 2 history says you see your clowns get the win today. have fun

[BiffTFinancial]

any other year browns would be one of the best week 2 plays you can ask for. maybe they still are, the setup is beyond perfect but i just cant trust the little clown playing qb or the rest of that team.

im not playing the tb/no total either,. really think there a high possibility lovie goes ultra conservative early and think if he does martin will prob have more than enough success to limit possessions in the 1st half. i could def see a 1st half under 2nd half over type scenario or saints just to continue where they left off last year and keep stinking up the joint.

prefer cincy/sd over to that one where my only worry is sd playing their typical clock sucking protect the d offense, i just dont think they will be able to for long cause i think cincy will score at will on them and force rivers to sling it around.

sea tt over makes a lot of sense. that def looks high scoring to me. lynch outta go for a buck fifty and a couple scores alone,. between wilson, graham, and lockett im sure they can muster another 10.. gl brother, nfl week 2 history says you see your clowns get the win today. have fun

Morning, Banker! Checked out your NFL thread, always like reading your thoughts. I'm in a pool where i have to pick 6 NFL sides, and i need all the help that i can get!

Agree that this "should" be a spot to back the Browns, but no way, no how could i back Manziel. And no fun to fade the home team, at least not in game two. Oh well - beautiful day and i'll be hanging out with old friends at a football game - Manziel's shortcomings are the least of my worries right now, especially since i'll have no money invested in the result. BOL today, my friend.

[BiffTFinancial]

NFL Week Two final card
1* Raiders team total under 18' - LOSER
1* Seahawks team total over 23 - LOSER

0-2 -2.2u

Learning the lesson of sticking to Saturdays, time and again...

[survive]

Vegas really doesn't like BYU huh? 17 point dogs to ucla now 5.5 dogs to Michigan. Strange

[2daBank]

Would love for you, stf, or anyone else to kinda fill me in on what kind of team uk is? Sad but I really don't know lot bout, they seem solid w pretty decent d, can they score on mizzou d? I wanna say any solid sec team just having to beat mizzou should prob be a play cause not sure how tigers really score.

[2daBank]

Vegas really doesn't like BYU huh? 17 point dogs to ucla now 5.5 dogs to Michigan. Strange

I been playing byu last few and def lean that way again. How big are mich corners?

[survive]

I been playing byu last few and def lean that way again. How big are mich corners?

One of my good friends is a Michigan season ticket holder and is fairly rational as a fan, I asked if they have big cb's he said, "No. Lewis is really good tho. Stribling and Clark are almost 6 feet but they can be bums at times."

[Smutbucket]

Would love for you, stf, or anyone else to kinda fill me in on what kind of team uk is? Sad but I really don't know lot bout, they seem solid w pretty decent d, can they score on mizzou d? I wanna say any solid sec team just having to beat mizzou should prob be a play cause not sure how tigers really score.

Ill chime in as I usually watch almost every SEC matchup (SEC and BIG10 are my specialties), I just got done watching entire UF/Kentucky as I was already leaning kentucky vs missou and tennesse (which I just locked in as a pick) against UF this week.

Kentucky:
Expierenced defense with 7 starting seniors and good coverage team that doesnt make a lot of mistakes in the secondary. They have a strong goal line/red zone D holding south carolina to 1 TD in 5 trips and uf to 2 tds on 4 trips but one of those tds was a 4th down on goaline after being stuffed twice, before scoring on a really athletic play by greir. Had a blocked FG and an INT in the endzone too to stop UF twice in RZ. Despite UF controlling field position for much of the 3rd qtr and being in kentckys territory they were unable to put any points on the board in the second half.Their run defense is average (slightly below right now at 4.8 ypc but that was against two tough running teams UF and Scary) for SEC which would be considered strong in any other conference but probably their weakest link.6'5 240 pound Towles is big and mobile enough to pick up some yards with his legs and make some dbs miss/struggle to take him down in the open field. He's expierenced and big enough to deal with pressure effectively, but at times his accuracy struggles. I still think he's one of the better underrated QBs in the SEC, UF just has a real good pass defense and brought him a lot of pressure thats why they shut him down. Their leading rusher is real good averaging 8 yards a carry. Hes a patient runner whose able to accelerate quickly. Their WRs seem to be their biggest weakness as they had some big dropped passes they should have had including one early TD and also caused an INT that should of been caught and tipped and practically ran back for a touchdown but towles tackled him down inside the 20. (His 2nd INT in game was on a 4th and 27 in last minute of game so that doesnt really count either) Their O-Line is touted as one of stoops best as it return 4 starters but they struggled handling the strong and fast uf front that sent a lot of pressure and mixed looks fooling them a lot and racking up 6 sacks on kentucky.

Havent watched missouri that much but from the little I saw of them their offense looked terrible especially their recievers and mauk isnt a qb to take over a game and win it by himself by any means. How good is their RB thats supposed to be returning this week? Is this just going to be another under? 44 is low...but now that low....Missouri is 0-3 ATS this year, but thats sort of a bounce back after being consistently undervalued by the oddsmakers over the last two years going 21-7 ATS or are they just that bad this year?

[2daBank]

thanks smut, i knew uk d was respectable at least and have heard good things about their corners. which a little moot since mizzou passing gm is a freaking joke! lol. seriously i doubt mauk could take them down the field passing if there was no defense on the field .

really kinda a bummer you telling me that run d is uk weakest part of the defense cause that all mizzou capable of doing. the rb coming back is pretty good, he has some wiggle and can take it to the house.

the defense is really good and yea there a reason the total 44 cause it be like stealing if they hung another 50 something in a mizzou gm no matter the opponent so get used to these i knew they were coming. mizzou damn near needs the d to create something like a short field or score themselves to actually put points on the board so guess need to know if uk turnover prone.

[SilverTongueFox]

thanks smut, i knew uk d was respectable at least and have heard good things about their corners. which a little moot since mizzou passing gm is a freaking joke! lol. seriously i doubt mauk could take them down the field passing if there was no defense on the field .

really kinda a bummer you telling me that run d is uk weakest part of the defense cause that all mizzou capable of doing. the rb coming back is pretty good, he has some wiggle and can take it to the house.

the defense is really good and yea there a reason the total 44 cause it be like stealing if they hung another 50 something in a mizzou gm no matter the opponent so get used to these i knew they were coming. mizzou damn near needs the d to create something like a short field or score themselves to actually put points on the board so guess need to know if uk turnover prone.

Bank, how do you think Mizzou's defense matches up with Florida's defense? What about SCarolina's defense? SCarolina shutout Kentucky in the 2nd half of that ballgame. Kentucky only mustered 9pts in the Florida game. I think it's pretty evenly matched on the offensive side of the ball. Both have a pretty good back and that's about it. Although I think Kentucky's qb has some talent, he just hasn't put it together nor does he have a good OL or get the WR weapons. Kentucky has certainly recruited better on the defensive side ball and under Stoops have improved, however, I definitely give the edge to Mizzou on that side ball. I also give Pinkel the edge over Stoops.

I will leave you with this and I said it last week as everyone was jumping on Kentucky getting points vs Florida. It's still Kentucky!!! While I expect them to compete and be in some ballgames, it's still Kentucky!!! They beat the scrubs on their schedule, compete in a few SEC games, get blown out in the other SEC games. It's not a program that knows how to win (certainly know how to lose games) that is playing a program that knows how to win in this league with the better defense and better coach. I'd take that team. BOL and nice work in your NFL thread.

[2daBank]

Bank, how do you think Mizzou's defense matches up with Florida's defense? What about SCarolina's defense? SCarolina shutout Kentucky in the 2nd half of that ballgame. Kentucky only mustered 9pts in the Florida game. I think it's pretty evenly matched on the offensive side of the ball. Both have a pretty good back and that's about it. Although I think Kentucky's qb has some talent, he just hasn't put it together nor does he have a good OL or get the WR weapons. Kentucky has certainly recruited better on the defensive side ball and under Stoops have improved, however, I definitely give the edge to Mizzou on that side ball. I also give Pinkel the edge over Stoops.

I will leave you with this and I said it last week as everyone was jumping on Kentucky getting points vs Florida. It's still Kentucky!!! While I expect them to compete and be in some ballgames, it's still Kentucky!!! They beat the scrubs on their schedule, compete in a few SEC games, get blown out in the other SEC games. It's not a program that knows how to win (certainly know how to lose games) that is playing a program that knows how to win in this league with the better defense and better coach. I'd take that team. BOL and nice work in your NFL thread.

the bold is why im having to ask and why im hesitant to pull the trigger against mizzou,. lol.. i liked fading them better when they were laying points with that disgusting offense.. i havnt seen the other defenses much to compare really (sat been kinda busy for me) i will say i think tigers d is really good so sounds like a gm where the team who turns it over less prob wins, i know that little obvious but a bigger factor when neither offense is likely to have a lot of success and prob cant overcome such a thing..

[BiffTFinancial]

CFB Week Four
2* Rice/Baylor over 74' (-105)

[BiffTFinancial]

Crazy busy this week, so sorry that i haven't been around, but great to see that you guys have had some good discussion going!

[SilverTongueFox]

CFB Week Four
2* Rice/Baylor over 74' (-105)

I'm in. I do like Mizzou, Florida, SCarolina, Duke, maybe Arky, good spot to take pts with Vandy, have a feeling Nebraska rolls So Miss, but I decided to take the weekend off; however I'm going to tail this one.

Does MD vs WVU total seem a tad low to you? I'm thinking WVU 38-41pts / MD 24-27pts

BOL today.

[BiffTFinancial]

I'm in. I do like Mizzou, Florida, SCarolina, Duke, maybe Arky, good spot to take pts with Vandy, have a feeling Nebraska rolls So Miss, but I decided to take the weekend off; however I'm going to tail this one.

Does MD vs WVU total seem a tad low to you? I'm thinking WVU 38-41pts / MD 24-27pts

BOL today.

Morning, brotha! Didn't have as much time as I'd like to research this week, but will have a few more plays. MD/WVU total does seem low, and can't figure out why it would be dropping, so going to avoid that one. Agree on Mizzou but like under better than side. Agree on Duke, disagree on UF and Arky, but not playing either of those. Great point about being good spot to take points with Vandy. A guy that i really respect has So Miss as his POW, so not touching UNL there, but at the same time, can't justify backing So Miss. BOL and have a great weekend, my friend.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Boston College team total under 27 (-120)
1* Minnesota team total under 28
1* Kentucky/Missouri under 44' (-105)
1* William & Mary -7 (-120)

CFB Week Four updated card
2* Rice/Baylor over 74' (-105)
1* Boston College TT under 27 (-120)
1* Minnesota TT under 28
1* Kentucky/Missouri under 44' (-105)
1* Tribe -7 (-120)

[SilverTongueFox]

Morning, brotha! Didn't have as much time as I'd like to research this week, but will have a few more plays. MD/WVU total does seem low, and can't figure out why it would be dropping, so going to avoid that one. Agree on Mizzou but like under better than side. Agree on Duke, disagree on UF and Arky, but not playing either of those. Great point about being good spot to take points with Vandy. A guy that i really respect has So Miss as his POW, so not touching UNL there, but at the same time, can't justify backing So Miss. BOL and have a great weekend, my friend.

I think Neb TT o44 is the way to go but the game is so damn early, 11am local. The heavy favorite may not be up for it this early in the day. Probably best to leave it alone.

BOL on the rest of your plays. Go Tribe!

Bama comes to Athens next week. I won't get $hit done all week.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Texas Tech team total over 39'

CFB Week Four updated card
2* Rice/Baylor over 74' (-105)
1* Boston College TT under 27 (-120)
1* Minnesota TT under 28
1* Texas Tech TT over 39'
1* Kentucky/Missouri under 44' (-105)
1* Tribe -7 (-120)

BOL to all today

[BiffTFinancial]

I think Neb TT o44 is the way to go but the game is so damn early, 11am local. The heavy favorite may not be up for it this early in the day. Probably best to leave it alone.

BOL on the rest of your plays. Go Tribe!

Bama comes to Athens next week. I won't get $hit done all week.

Agree - better options out there than UNL/So Miss in general.

Thanks, pal. Tribe gave UVA all they could handle last week (not that that's saying a ton) and i expect them to be way up tonight under the lights and play well.

Bama/UGA will be must-watch. Interesting tweet from Bruce Feldman about the decline of the Bama defense:

Bruce Feldman ‏@BruceFeldmanCFB 22h22 hours ago
In #Bama's last 14 games; Tide has allowed 21 ppg & given up 40 pts 4 times. In Tide's previous 80 games: 12 ppg and only allowed 40 once.