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**Square Bet No More - NCAAF Season Thread**
The best time of year is here! I've developed algorithms for all sports, but especially in college sports. The algorithms have proven successful but I've also applied filters that have given yield to higher win rates! I will post plays throughout the year, let me know what you think about some of my plays, and of course, lets just win!!!
Scrat, I think one of the most intriguing lines of the week may be the biggest matchup. Alabama vs Wisconsin... The line at first glance looks about correct, but let's look at this from a value standpoint.
My algorithms look into coaching and recruiting for each team. While the media and most fans have classified alabama as rebuilding, are they really? Alabama is still is at the top in terms of pure talent over the past 4 years. The biggest issue they've had is at corner the past two years. They've upgraded heavily in the past two rounds of recruiting. Go check if you must. But, I think from a pure talent perspective alabama upgrades on the defensive side of the ball quite a bit when comparing to last year's team. As for offense, they might not have a QB named yet, but do we doubt the talent and kiffen's ability to score points?
I've got more research to do from a Wisconsin perspective, but the thing that really intrigued me and got me looking deeper into the matchup is that for the first time in possibly a half decade, alabama might be under valued. It's only a lean and would only qualify as a minor play, but I think there could be value at Alabama -10. Will follow up later in the week!
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I agree that there is value with Bama at -10. As you said even though they haven't named a QB yet I will take the talent at Bama over Wisconsin every day of the week. I'm a Big Ten fan and there has been plenty of talk from the Big Ten football analysts that Wisconsin may not be able to run the ball as effective as they have in the past as their O-line this year isn't a vintage Wisconsin O-line. I believe the experts have named Bama's D-line the best in the country for this year and that's bad news for Wisconsin! Also, the QB at Wisconsin is average at best and their offense is void of any play makers that would really threaten Bama. Kiffen will spread them out and pound Derrick Henry at them. I'll be shocked if this is within 2 TD's at half.
I agree Alex. Alabama front 7 should be one of the best in the country. If they play any kind of defense in the back you'd like to think that their offense could get around to pushing the lead out to a comfortable lead and not have too much of a sweat. I do think Alabama getting Kenyan Drake back after last year's leg injury will add an interesting dynamic for their offense. He reminds me a little of Percy Harvin. I might throw a buck or two on this game but nothing official.
I had several lines move on me today, wish I had moved over the weekend. I'll be posting leans soon so I can get a little input from you guys, check injuries, and of course line shop!
Alright guys here we go! Like I said earlier these plays are based on algorithms and filters on the algorithms. The better the filter then the higher confidence. I also do additional research that I use to determine confidence. Week one should be a little slower than most since lines have been hammered out, but I still have several games that show value.
Week 1
Alabama -10 (3u)
FIU +14 (3u)
Hawaii +7.5 (3u)
More to come!
You mention your algorithms, but fail to rely on any statistical evidence in your reasoning?Originally Posted by SquareBetNoMore
Sorry, haven't taken a lot of time to detail the algorithms. The algorithm uses a power ranking I've developed using a combination of recruiting rankings, coaching experience, each team's unit rankings, and returning players/starters. Each teams power ranking is then added or subtracted from based on home field advantage, injuries, and the emotional state (let down game, look ahead game, or sandwich game).
I wanted an unbiased power ranking and added the other parameters to give a little detail fine tune depending on each teams schedule each week.
I don't use any points per yard type stats to generate a total. The power rankings I use will be used solely for side bets.
Last years power rankings with the added weighted parameters I mentioned above were applied to every game throughout the year. For every single game the final win percentage was 59.5%. What I found throughout the year was that the big games were less successful. So, I added a filter to exclude games with teams with a power ranking over 85 (top 12ish team in the country). Adding the filter bumped the win % up to 65%. I discovered 3 other filters like this and it is how I decide which games to keep an eye on.
I have Alabama winning by 15 on a neutral site, qualifying as a base play. I tacked on a unit after doing additional research.
I have FIU losing by 9. It's a stronger play that hit a 72% filter. I hate I didn't bet it when it was up at +17 last week.
Hawaii qualifies as a top play. I wanted to get at least 3 units on it before it dropped to +6.5 or +7. I will probably add 2 units later. Hawaii hit a 90% filter (50-5 last year).
FAU was the only other game that hit the 90% filter this week. It will be bet, just line shopping for now.
Hopefully this gives you a better idea of what kind of algorithm I'm using to generate scores each week. Let me know what you think!
Last edited by SquareBetNoMore; 09-02-15 at 03:23 PM.
Vanderbilt +3 (2u)
Hawaii +7.5 (1u) adding a unit (4 total)
UTSA +31.5 (2u)
why vandy?
Well they were nearly 3 point favorites a week ago. I have Vandy winning by 7. Second year coach at Vandy, maybe they lose in this one against a high powered offense, but I do think they have a chance at pulling out the W. Hence the reason it's only 2u. Now if this game we're going on in 2 or 3 weeks I could give you more of an answer to "why Vandy", but for now it's they met one of my filters and I think they have a chance to win the game while getting points.
Give an example of the filters you are refering to
I did above, but I will again. I thought throughout the year I was winning more games when two scrub teams were playing each other. Colorado vs Hawaii tonight is a similar game type that I felt I won more often than games involving top 5 or top 10 teams. So I added a filter to exclude any games with top 10 teams participating. This bumped the 60% (entire population of 700+ games) system to about 65% (with about half the total games played 350ish games). The 90% filter added an additional filter on this first filter but was over a smaller amount of games, 55 last season(50-5).
Marshall -7 (3u) buy the hook if you need to, I only see this going up closer to kick
Nice start last night going 5-1 for a pretty +9.8 units! Lets win a little more!!!
FIU +14 (3u) - W
Vanderbilt (2u) - W
Hawaii (4u) - W
Oklahoma St (2u) - L
Ohio (2u) - W
UTSA (2u) - W
Fantastic start. I followed you Hawaii play. I'm low on money from mlb betting. But I'm gonna start following your COllege Football bets. Great way to start! Let's keep it up!
Washington +11 (2u)
Florida Atlantic +5 (3u)
Last edited by SquareBetNoMore; 09-04-15 at 06:55 PM. Reason: Forgot to put the +5 on FAU
Ideally, what do you expect to hit % wise?
Topher, I tried to find an algorithm that yeided at least 60% over the entire population of games with the thought that in future years results should fall between 55% and 65% (+/- 5% the 60% population). So, if any of this makes sense, ideally I'd like to hit at least 55%, but probably closer to between 60% or 65%. But, at the same time, I will not be giving every single game this year. I will be using 3 filters to determine if I'm going to post. Those filters were 65% over 350 plays, 76% over 120 plays, and 90% over 55 plays.
So, if I'm only posting those, I'd like to be at least 60%, but that just sounds ludicrous, but I guess you never know!
Eric, FAU qualifies for the best filter (90% last year), but I didn't bet 4 or 5 units because I don't love the number I got. Hopefully we don't get burnt this go around!
I hit up Washington with you tonight. I like that bet a lot.
I also bet Illinois -13.5
I didn't love these but also didn't hate it, hence the token 2u bet. Hopefully we can get a winner or two!
I actually didn't get the Illinois bet in Dangit. Let's go Washington
Washingtons defense looks terrible
Yep, can't get off the field, maybe they'll figure something out...
Yeah a lot of time left. We got this!
INT maybe I spoke to soon:/ might be a long night
Maybe. I did catch a break with the Illinois game. Game has been rescheduled for tomorrow afternoon. I'm going to try to get -13.5 or better. Will repost when I bet it.
That's a win we probably didn't deserve after watching the first half, but I'll take it.
Washington +11 (2u) - W
Crazy start continues!
6-1, +11.62u
Penn st -6.5 (2u)
Georgia Southern +17.5 (2u)
gl SBNM
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