Ehhhh that's your call, I fully expect to see OSU play better on both sides of the ball, the coaching advantage is clearly is OSU's favor and adjustments will be made. If OSU doesn't turn the ball over they'll take it I think
Came very close to placing 20% of my BR on OSU covering the very juiced -5.5 spread for the 2nd half, but chickened out thinking the excessive -240 on them winning by a FG wasn't worth the risk of VT possibly keeping it close and covering that. With their starting QB out now it's certain that even a double-digit OSU spread will win, but not too upset at missing out as being less prudent has certainly stung me in the past! Content with the small VT amount easily won from the 2nd qtr, happy with a little profit from a game I certainly didn't have a strong feeling for anyway!
Btw, I apologize for high-jacking your thread, but just wanted to make a comment about your ranking system. It's pretty awesome seeing others try out models like that, as I've toyed around and attempted some models myself, though I find it's much harder for me with a sport like football that I know very well - it seems I make more money just using my gut and intuition in this sport over any ranking systems or computer models I've come up with. Though in all fairness to the systems/models, I haven't ever stayed the course throughout the entire season, nor had the patience/time to backrest any past seasons, so there is a chance that they may be more profitable over the long run than making regular picks! Lol
Anyway you certainly seem to have developed a very nice system/model here, and I will certainly keep a close eye and discuss here in this thread. What books/guides did you use in developing this system? Don't know how statistical/math oriented you are, but I've found that 'Conquering Risk' and 'Who's #1? The Science of Rating and Ranking' have been invaluable tools in helping develop some of mine! The latter one gets especially complex with linear algebraic functions used in creating ratings systems, but they're not too bad if you can follow the equations and plug in any pertinent data to tweak whatever kind of statistical data you want in these formulas. I'm sure you've probably read/analyzed much more complex texts in developing your models, but just wondering if you've read or heard of either of these books, as they contain a wealth of knowledge and something I've found extremely helpful for a beginner like me!
Week 2 lines are out and there will be plenty of plays. I went ahead and bet a couple of games and we can tack on a unit or buy back when the game gets closer. But I like the lines where they are so I'm going to get them before they move.
No problem about the thread Semper, glad you're following my plays, hopefully they stay hot and we make some money. OSU game is hard not to hedge if you have an opportunity like you did last night with the only way VT could stay in it was to have OSU turn it over. Seeing as to how they already had twice I doubted we would see that too much the rest of the way. The QB injury is one you just can't predict and obviously changes the game big time! Oh well though. I haven't heard or read the books you mentioned. I did do a good bit of tinkering with my power rankings and the algorithm I use though. If I liked to read I would probably look into them, maybe one day right?
Topher I would buy the hook in the Indiana game but the others are a go. I bet these fully expecting the line to move the wrong way. If some of these lines stay the same then we might add a unit or two, but we'll see! I'll have a few more and tack on bets later!
Who sidetracked your system. Lots of solid plays in week 1, but in week 2? You are really going to take a team that just got their tails handed to them by the tune of 55-6 and are hosting the SEC East Champs?
Indiana, who barely escaped with a win over a FCS team giving 7 to a team that just beat UCF, a much better team than Indiana?
Tulane who just lost at home by 30 to Duke taking 28 1/2 at a better Ga. Tech team?
Colorado State +6 against Minnesota is very tempting considering that Colorado State is 8-0 at home off a non-con game against a team off a S/U loss. Then there is the altitude. Minny -6 could well be a loser.
Just for the hell of it, I will fade you on those 4 games. Let's see what happens. It should be interesting.
BigDaddy good luck whether you fade or not, I just crunch the numbers and play. While I agree some of these are tough bets to actually wager after viewing these teams week 1 performance, they are what they are. The algorithm I have is based on a power ranking I have developed. While a team might not necessarily perform up to par in week 1, doesn't always mean they don't bounc back with energy in week 2. I'd even argue because they were as bad as they were in week 1 they'd have the max value now, before showing their true potential. Yes all 4 teams that I've bet may lose this week (and net you a bunch of cash), but my goal is to find inflated lines in which I can have a field goal or touchdown difference between the posted line and my generated line. If they lose, I can live with it, mainly because it's what netted me and anyone that followed +20 units in week 1. Good luck though, it's week 2 and we are playing with house money
Love, I would but it would take me even longer to post plays than it already does, sorry. I use yahoo sports app to view scores and kick times. Maybe that will help you! We have Utah as a play tonight!
Yep, had I bet early last week I could have gotten much better lines and this week several have moved against us. Such is life I reckon. We'll probably hold off til a little closer to mid-week next week before we bet anything. I would have been disappointed had I waited and Utah moved to -14.5! Oh well, maybe it won't bite us this weekend!
Yep, they looked sluggish, but the QB injury hurt. If the starter doesn't go down in the first half they had a chance to cap the half with a score. Instead they were lucky to get away without a turnover and they still have up a TD before half. Their defense looks rough. Can't win them all though, maybe they'll pick it up at half.
Hate we bet Tulane too early, but if we liked it at 28.5 we gotta add another unit at 32.5, could be a blowout but like I said last week, just following the numbers, hopefully four touchdowns are too many.
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