[Jupiter333]

Going light in week 1, and expect to be playing more games with more uumph behind them after the first week.
My units will be 1 or 2 units for every game. I am a technical handicapper by and large, but week 1 those angles don't work as well. Use the technique that you resonate with to decide who to take on YOUR games. It's your wallet, right?

1) Charlotte +5, 1 unit. Technical play, but also the rushing differential that Georgia State exhibited last year was something like -200 yds/game. Teams that outrush their opponent cover over 76% of the time as away dogs and close to 82% of the time as away dogs, game 1...that's why Navy and Georgia Tech cover every year against supposedly superior opponents, b/c they're outrushing them. (And that is a HUGE reason why I'm looking forward to Georgia Tech visiting Notre Dame in a few weeks.) I'm not expecting Georgia State to suddenly turn it around this year, starting with week 1.

2) BYU +6, 1 unit. Coaching makes a difference in college football, not a huge in your face statement. Even great coaches will suffer in the beginning when implementing their system. I am a huge Jerry Kill fan of the Minnesota Gophers, but his team in his first year lost to New Mexico State, and Jim Harbaugh's record his first two seasons at Stanford was below .500, so I don't think that Nebraska losing straight up to a decent BYU team is a stretch. Riley is introducing a passing attack with a quarterback that is not a good passer, and again, they could get outrushed in this game as Riley's teams never have been exceptional running teams. The Nebraska defense the last 4 or 5 games last year gave up points in bunches and they return only about 6 starters. BYU brings back their quarterback that can make things happen.....like the Mormons.

Leans: 3) Texas.....Notre Dame is terrible as a favorite every year. Texas will be improved this year as Strong has gotten rid of the dead wood and their pass defense should be top-notch.

4) Georgia Southern,...getting over two TDs with the best rushing attack in the nation last year?.....I could be playing it.

[Renegades]

Agree with you that good rushing teams are usually great bets as underdogs

[crackerjack]

BYU +6 is a gift.

[Hotlanta Steam]

Guys that think BYU is a gift...just be careful...BYU has players suspended and has had and very serious injuries. QB Hill is coming back from a very serious injury himself....Nebraska's one big strength is its two stud DTs (Valentine and Collins)... BYU will find it very tough sledding up the middle and Hill is an average at best passer...Im not saying it is a bad play but Mike Riley has never had this much talent to work with....word is Nebraska's second string O-line is better than any line he ever had at Oregon State... He is adapting his playbook to QB Armstrong, lot more QB run plays than he had ever done in the past. Agree with OP Armstrong is a poor passer..

I think this will be a good ball game, I think Nebraska wins by 7-10 pts (31-21)

[crackerjack]

Guys that think BYU is a gift...just be careful...BYU has players suspended and has had and very serious injuries. QB Hill is coming back from a very serious injury himself....Nebraska's one big strength is its two stud DTs (Valentine and Collins)... BYU will find it very tough sledding up the middle and Hill is an average at best passer...Im not saying it is a bad play but Mike Riley has never had this much talent to work with....word is Nebraska's second string O-line is better than any line he ever had at Oregon State... He is adapting his playbook to QB Armstrong, lot more QB run plays than he had ever done in the past. Agree with OP Armstrong is a poor passer..

I think this will be a good ball game, I think Nebraska wins by 7-10 pts (31-21)

Good info. Line now +6.5... I'm rethinking it but I think Byu will be better than expected this year. Maybe I'll pass on this one. I didn't know they had guys suspended...

[HeeluvaGuy]

4) Georgia Southern,...getting over two TDs with the best rushing attack in the nation last year?.....I could be playing it.

I'm sure you already know this, but just in case ... GaSo will be without its starting QB and is replacing 4/5 of its OL from last season. Source: http://m.chronicle.augusta.com/sport...bond#gsc.tab=0

[Jupiter333]

Heeluva,

Yeah, I did know it, but thanks for lookin' out for me just the same.

Good luck this season to ya.

[Roy Keane]

Good Luck

(Trying to get to 40 posts so I can DM)

[Jupiter333]

yeah, I am trying to get to 40 posts too,....that's a good idea.

[Bswitz32]

leaning Texas +9.5

[Jupiter333]

Going light in week 1, and expect to be playing more games with more uumph behind them after the first week.
My units will be 1 or 2 units for every game. I am a technical handicapper by and large, but week 1 those angles don't work as well. Use the technique that you resonate with to decide who to take on YOUR games. It's your wallet, right?

1) Charlotte +5, 1 unit. Technical play, but also the rushing differential that Georgia State exhibited last year was something like -200 yds/game. Teams that outrush their opponent cover over 76% of the time as away dogs and close to 82% of the time as away dogs, game 1...that's why Navy and Georgia Tech cover every year against supposedly superior opponents, b/c they're outrushing them. (And that is a HUGE reason why I'm looking forward to Georgia Tech visiting Notre Dame in a few weeks.) I'm not expecting Georgia State to suddenly turn it around this year, starting with week 1.

2) BYU +6, 1 unit. Coaching makes a difference in college football, not a huge in your face statement. Even great coaches will suffer in the beginning when implementing their system. I am a huge Jerry Kill fan of the Minnesota Gophers, but his team in his first year lost to New Mexico State, and Jim Harbaugh's record his first two seasons at Stanford was below .500, so I don't think that Nebraska losing straight up to a decent BYU team is a stretch. Riley is introducing a passing attack with a quarterback that is not a good passer, and again, they could get outrushed in this game as Riley's teams never have been exceptional running teams. The Nebraska defense the last 4 or 5 games last year gave up points in bunches and they return only about 6 starters. BYU brings back their quarterback that can make things happen.....like the Mormons.

Leans: 3) Texas.....Notre Dame is terrible as a favorite every year. Texas will be improved this year as Strong has gotten rid of the dead wood and their pass defense should be top-notch.

4) Georgia Southern,...getting over two TDs with the best rushing attack in the nation last year?.....I could be playing it.

Been terrible with anticipating line moves in ncaa foots....we'll see if it costs me this week. Teams that score>28 points as a dog cover 82% of the time in week 1. All of four of my plays this week, I am expecting the dog to score more than 28. Adding to my Charlotte and BYU plays

3) North Carolina +2, 1 unit

4) FAU +6', 1 unit

lean Minnesota +17, I might be biting...Gophers covered versus Michigan State, Badgers and Buckeyes last three years as big dogs. They are probably a year away from being able to win the BIG West as they draw Michigan and Ohio State in cross over games this year. Next year Wisconsin gets the two Michigan schools and Ohio State while the Gophers get much easier opponents. TCU is not blowing this team out.

Still leaning Georgia Southern +19'. When a team runs for over 350 yards/game in a season, it's not the players only but the system that is making it happen. They will be like Wisconsin, Navy and Georgia Tech year after year, replacing players but still running the ball very well. Teams that outrush their opponent cover over 64% of the time and those teams that outrush their opponent as away dogs have covered 79% of the time week 1.

[Jupiter333]

Final plays for the weekend.

1) Charlotte +4 (played too early)
2) BYU +5 (played early)
3) North Carolina +2
4) FAU +6'
5) Minnesota +17
6) Georgia Southern +19'

Good luck.