[footballkelly31]

I have been a casual bettor for years and look at it as entertainment. With that said I figure I should post my plays and reasoning and get the opinions of other like minded degenerates. I hope to use the thread as a way to learn from mistakes by documenting what I had thought at the time.

Futures:
Temple Season Wins Over 7 (-130) (1 unit)

Conference Champions (units to win)
AAC - Temple +1200 (15 units)
ACC - Louisville +800 (8 units)
MWC - Boise St -300 (2.5 units)

I'll post my reasoning later tonight.

[footballkelly31]

I told myself in the middle of the summer that if the win total was 7 or less I was going to take the over. I would have loved to see a 6.5 but I will take at worst a tie. I know that Temple has PSU and Notre Dame but I love their defense and experience (19 returning starters). The season win total will ultimately come down to conference games. They play 4 of the top 5 favorites (only avoiding Houston) which is why I was hoping for a 6.5.

PSU - Have to chalk that up as a Loss (will prob take PSU if it goes under a TD)
@ Cincy - Again putting it in as a loss.... to much fire power
@ UMASS- W
@ Chalotte -W
Tulane - W Home coming against an experienced team edge to the Owls D (held them to 3 last year)
UCF - (50/50) only 9 starters back and replacing 2 all conference OL man giving the edge to the Owls D,UCF 7th straight gm
@ECU - (50/50) Short week and revenge game (20-10 Owls LY) although ECUs 8th straight gm so not out of question
ND - L
@SMU - W will once again be one of the worst teams in the nation.
@USF - W Top notch running back with weak o-line advantage Owls D
Memphis - (50/50) No experience on D but top QB in conference with almost all his wideouts back, hoping Owls offense is rolling by now.
UConn - W experience but no offensive fire power talent wise.

I have six wins with 3 50/50 games. I'll pay the juice to see Temple win one of the toss ups to tie and 2 toss ups to win the bet. This goes hand in hand with my 12 to 1 wager on Temple to win the AAC. They play the top teams in their division and have their destiny in their own hands. I like the experience and defense especially at those odds.


Boise St. is the favorite and always reload cant go against them even at the -300 juice. They have the best OL, DL and Linebackers in the conference and I believe that you win games in the trenches. Experience? 17 returning starters from a team that won the conference last year. They do have a tough run at Colorado St. and Utah St. for there 6 and 7th game in a row. Still have to like them even if they lose one there. Air Force key loss last year is at home and revenge (no worries).

Louisville - No real reason besides getting to control their fate with games against Clemson and @ FSU rest of ACC schedule is on the weaker side.

[crackerjack]

The problem with Temple is they have one of the worst offenses in college football. They averaged like 300 yards a game last year. The lost their best wide receiver, so how will they be better? Experience will help them improve a little. They do have an awesome defense but if you can't score, that won't matter. Seven wins seems like a stretch unless they get something going on offense. Otherwise bet the unders in their games. They had only three overs all of last year...

[footballkelly31]

You sir are correct. They lost their top wide receiver. They need to replace 53 receptions 730 yards and 6 touchdowns. They did get a 6'3 wideout transferred in from Hawaii and a highly touted transfer in from Pitt who should contend for that #1 wide out spot. The offense is no doubt a concern but the run game should get better as Zaire Williams is back after missing last season with an injury and they got a UCLA transfer who should fight for playing time. They return 4 offensive line starters and this is the third year for Walker under this system. Walker is athletic but has been inconsistent as a thrower. Would like to think that the third year of coaching will get the best out of him. This is a bet, gamble, rolling the dice however you want to say it and nothing is guaranteed but I have to say that with the level of talent they will be facing (apart from PSU and Notre Dame) they will have a chance to win every game.

[footballkelly31]

Added PSU -6.5 (-115) risking 4 units. This game should come down to the trenches. If PSU can get pressure up front and force Temple to throw they should win this one easily. From the offensive side of the ball it will be the same story, PSU will need to win enough battles up front and get into manageable 3rd downs. Long drives should benefit PSU O as they will wear down the Temple D and pull away in the 2nd half. Looking for a 27-13 final.

[footballkelly31]

Well that was not a good first play. Currently sitting at -4.4 units as the PSU offense looked terrible. Have to remember to not overreact from one game and get burnt in the second week. I have a few matchups that I like, without looking at any spreads yet these are a few leans.

Currently like Clemson at home against Appalachian St. for anything under 3 td's.

Kansas St. @ UTSA, Kansas st is always well coached and an over achieving team. I know that UTSA played a good game @ Arizona and am hoping that the line reflects that. I'd take KSU -10 or less.

Michigan home verse the Beavers. Oregon St. will be playing this game at 9 am local time and Michigan will be rocking for there first home game under new coach. Leery of a bad line as Michigan always gets public backing wouldn't play them if its more then -10.

ND @ Virginia, ND is the real deal and play a different style then UCLA who won by 18. ND will spread them out and should get a better line with the big injury. However as with Michigan ND always gets public love and have to be weary of an inflated line. ND if its under 14 points.

Wisconsin hosting Miami (OH) - Wisconsin looked lackluster against Bama. I look for them to come out and dominate up front and show no mercy to a team who beat Presbyterian by less then 3 tds. Badgers by 24 or less.

These are just views/thoughts on a few games, I'll post my plays when I make the wagers.

[footballkelly31]

So going to put one unit on the Golden Domers and the Tigers of Clemson as both lines currently lay lower than what I felt comfortable with.

ND -12
Clemson -19

The question now becomes do I take the dogs getting 5 to 7 points more than I wanted to give them. I'll wait for now but may jump on one or two of the dogs before kick off tomorrow. I do like Boise St. giving less then a field goal but the line looks fishy with BYU getting lucky last week and having the stud QB out. Will have to sleep on that one and see what the spread/juice is tomorrow.

[footballkelly31]

Card for week 2:

ND -12 (1 unit)
Clemson -19 (1 unit)
LSU -4 (.75 unit)
OU/Tenn U64 (1 unit)

Added the Under do to the weather being a factor and footing being an issue.
LSU due to getting an extra week to prepare.

[Jimmy Proffett]

I like Michigan big today; they can't make that line high enough. Rookie coach, Freshman QB coming into the Big House to face a Top 10 projected Defense.... only 2 returning starters on D for the Beavs.

I'm on the fence on ND and LSU, leaning their way.

Good luck today kelly

[footballkelly31]

Thank you sir....wish I would have taken Michigan myself. Good insight proved to be right. I should have gone with my gut and taken all the teams I liked even though the lines were higher then I wanted. Here is to hoping ND turns it around.

[Jimmy Proffett]

Nice calls on Clemson and the OU/Tenn under. I always worry about Appy St b/c they've been giant-killers in the past and are slated to win the Sun Belt this year.

I was way off on UMass today; I thought that going to be a shootout for sure, and well it was but only for one team. I need SMU to wake up and this could be a really nice day for me.

Still debating whether or not to take Stanford.... gonna be a game-time decision

[footballkelly31]

The way week 2 has gone and teams playing much better then they did in week 1, Stanford should come out and dominate.

[footballkelly31]

Got a little back last week.

ND -12 (1 unit) L -1.1
Clemson -19 (1 unit) W +1
LSU -4 (.75 unit) L -.83
OU/Tenn U64 (1 unit) W +1


Week 2 +.07 with a terrible YTD (-4.33 units)

Patience is always the key and even though more of the games of the games capped but not wagered on would have been winners I was not able to get a number i felt comfortable with and will continue to lay off if the number is not in a range I like. How can LSU not hold the momentum after jumping out to a quick 14-0 lead. I understand its Les Miles and a boring offense but it was way to early to start with the conservative nonsense. Going to keep that in mind when looking at any LSU game. Now on to week 3. I have not looked at the lines in depth minus a pick or two for the prick contest.

New Mexico visiting Arizona St. - Arizona St. has looked uninspired and not playing up to the talent level that they have. They also have a huge game against USC next week and I fear a look ahead. With that in mind New Mexico will be over matched and it will be tough for them to stay close. New mexico will give up a ton of yards but I expect it to be on the ground which should shorten the game. I'd take New Mexico is they are getting more than 24 points.

UMass @ Temple - Temple has proven that they can run the ball against a poor defense. UMass is a poor defense with one weapon on offense. Temples D has been as good as advertised and they should be able to shut them down. You have to fear a let down as the team had a historic win in week one and then a big conference win over the preseason favorites. Because of that I would like the line to be a touchdown or less but i have a feeling it maybe closer to -10.

I'd like to look at a few more games before I look at the lines.

[footballkelly31]

Grabbing New Mexico +25 for a unit since its above the 24 points I had it at. Really think AZ St. will be looking ahead playing a base defense not showing many exotic looks allowing New Mexico to score some points.

Temple is a 14 point road fav? That is higher then I had pegged and I may have to grab UMass with the points. Im going to wait until tomorrow before making the call.

South Carolina +16.5 is also intriguing at Georgia. The Gamecocks have been terrible so far this season. The best way to right the ship is a SEC battle. I have to believe that the D will be up to containing the run while trying to pound the rock themselves. This should create a shorter game and allow the dogs to hang around. The talent edge goes to the Dawgs but the gamecocks are coming off a loss and I wouldn't be surprised if they play with a ton of energy. I just don't can't see them being 17 points worse. I'll wait to see if I can get it +17 tomorrow before making a play.

Wisconsin -34.5 would have been under 4 touchdowns if it wasn't for that whopping they put on Miami OH. They have added a passing attack with a senior quarterback and the balanced attack has the Badgers poised to score points in bunches against the weaker opponents. NC State ran over Troy and the Badgers should be able to with little issue. This will open up the passing game and should make it a long day for the Trojans. Will sleep on this one but leaning Badgers.

[donkbetter]

texas tech +11 1/2 looks like a great bet

[Jimmy Proffett]

South Carolina +16.5 is also intriguing at Georgia. The Gamecocks have been terrible so far this season. The best way to right the ship is a SEC battle. I have to believe that the D will be up to containing the run while trying to pound the rock themselves. This should create a shorter game and allow the dogs to hang around. The talent edge goes to the Dawgs but the gamecocks are coming off a loss and I wouldn't be surprised if they play with a ton of energy.

It always seems like right about the time everyone forgets about the Gamecocks, the Ol' Ball coach turns the tables on everyone and they shock the world. I might follow you on this one, especially if this gets over 17.

Well, you said New Mexico was at 24 points and anything over was a win

[footballkelly31]

Texas tech is a tough call...Arkansas should come out pissed off after that embarrassing game last week. it wasn't the defense that lost the game it was a lack of offensive efficiency. I would not be surprised to see Arkansas cover. With that said its a no play for me.

New Mexico wasn't as productive on offense as I hoped but I'll take a win any day of the week.

final week three card soon....

[footballkelly31]

Week 3: (1 unit each)

New Mexico +25 yesterday
South Carolina +17
Wisconsin -30 dropped 4.5 points overnight which normally scares me but it's not going to go below the magic number of 28 which would have been perfect.

Looking at gt if the juice is low will wait till it gets closer to kick off.
Same with Umass see it as a 7 to 10 pt game but feel better if it gets back to 2 tds.

[footballkelly31]

New Mexico +25 W +1
South Carolina +17 L -1.1
Wisconsin -30 L -1.1

YTD sitting at a terrible -5.53 units.

Not much to be said the South Carolina game was a blow out and I was way off. No positive point can be taken from that game. The Wisconsin game was what I anticipated from the defensive side of the ball. I felt like Wisconsin was going to be able to do more with the air attack but alas I was wrong.

Week 4 is intriguing as teams have started to find an identity.

I have not looked at the lines yet and am just throwing out some games that stand out to me.

Cent Mich @ Michigan State- Air Force kept it close with the option attack while Cent. Mich is an air it out type team. We all know the MSU is the more talented team and they will win this game the question is by how much. I would like MSU under 21 as they will probably pound the ball and play a conservative game.

UL Monroe @ Alabama - Bama just flat out isn't as deep and talented as they were a few years back. However Saban is still a great coach and will have his guys working this week. Going to take them if its under 35.

These are just a few games that stood out from a quick glimpse. Will evaluate more games and these a little deeper later in the week.

[footballkelly31]

Getting ready for some more college football. Earlier I mentioned Mich St. if it was 21 or under and now I see that it is at 26.5. Going to pass on the game even though I am leaning Cent. Mich. I'll check in the am to see if it gets up to 28 but I highly doubt it and will stay away. Bama line isn't where I wanted it either. Going to lay off that one also. I prefer to make plays on games that I look at prior to seeing the spread but I like Florida as a pick um. Tennessee came into the season with a lot of hype and Florida has been under the radar. This could be a look ahead spot with Ole Miss coming in next week but it is the SEC and short of Vanderbilt any team can win and I believe that these kids know that. Take into account that Tennessee hasn't traveled yet this year and the Swamp will be rocking, I have to take the Gators and will be putting a little extra on it.

Another game that stood out is the Ole Miss Rebels hosting Vandy. I just said Vandy is the only opponent that I fear a look ahead. Add to it that Ole Miss just had a huge win on the road at Bama. I think the Rebels come out flat and just cruise through the game in preparation for a trip to the Swamp next week. I'm going to take the under 54 and stay away from the spread. Vandy doesn't have the fire power to score and Ole Miss wont be going score for score like last week. Doesn't mean they wont cover just don't see it being over 54.

Last game that I am going to take is Bowling Green at Purdue. Purdue is not a very good team. They have Michigan St. next week and are working with a new starter at QB. Bowling Green on the other hand is also not the most talented yet they have a spread attack which puts up points in bunches. I dont see either defense playing lights out but I think the new kid at QB will feel some pressure and make a mistake or two that will allow Bowling Green to cover. Taking Bowling Green -4 (currently at 3.5 with increased juice).

Official Week 4 card:
Gators pk (1.5 units)
Ole Miss/Vandy U54 (1 unit)
Bowling Green -4 (1 unit)

[footballkelly31]

Week 4 Card:
Gators pk (1.5 units) W +1.5
Ole Miss/Vandy U54 W +1
Bowling Green -4 W +1

Had a good week and was sweating that kick. Still not in the black but working my way back slowly. Looks like my leans would have also hit as the lines I made were pretty close to the finals. I have to trust my self more and make the plays. The ytd is now -2.03.

I have not had the time yet this week to look deeply into any of the games on tap. I typically can avoid seeing any lines until Thursday so I'll think about a few games today and tomorrow and will be back later in the week. (Hoping tomorrow)

[footballkelly31]

Ok the first game of the week has some potential. Cincy is playing host to the Hurricanes who are coming off a tough 3 point win over Nebraska 2 weeks ago. Cincy is missing their starting QB and played a back and forth game last Thursday in Memphis. Miami is a public team whos lines are sometimes inflated. They also have FSU (the biggest game of the season) next week. Cincy is the worst team in the nation with regards to turnovers and I think that has been drilled into the kids heads all week. I see them trying to control the pace of play and being conservative with the red shirt freshman. Miami has a great connection going with Kaaya and Berrios and they should put up some points on the porous Cincy defense. The weather is going to be crappy and chilly which should favor the bearcats however I like Miami by a td but fear the spread will be closer to 10.

The next game I like is the UCF @ Tulane game. UCF has been putrid and dismissed their most talented running back last week. Tulane isnt anything to write home about but they are well balanced on offense have played tougher competition this season. Tulane at home should try and control the game and limit their turnovers. The spread is to hard to try and peg but I think the game is on the lower end scoring wise and see it in the high 30's.

Kansas St. @ Oklahoma St. Kansas St has one brutal schedule. Coach Synder has been around a long time and is a great coach who gets the most out of his teams. I believe that he used the bye week to prep the kids and to focus on one game at a time. They use a run first attack and are going up against a team that has allowed 160+ yards on the ground in each of the last two games. Ok St. played a tough game against Texas and might have lost if it wasn't for a poor special teams play. Ok St. has not been sold on one starter as they have played 2 quarterbacks in teach of the last 3 games. Kansas St. isn't very efficient in the air and if they can't get the ground game going or fall down early wont be able to rally but I believe Kansas St. will be well rested and prepared. Come out fired up and grind out yards on the ground. I don't think they pull out the W but I like them getting a TD or more.

I'll check out the lines later in the week and see if any plays pop out at me.

[footballkelly31]

Good thing I laid off the Miami game as they looked terrible.
The Kansas St. game is currently sitting at a TD and I said I'd take them at that or better so I am buying the hook and going with KSU +7.5 for a unit.
The Tulane under is at 44 which is 6 points higher then I think the end will be so I am putting a unit on that one as well.
I am leaning Army due to PSU being inept on offense (sans last week). I see that the line has moved down a little bit and wish I would have made the play at 27. I think I will lay off now that its at 25.
Minnesota @ Northwestern have to lean Minnesota as they always play close games and Northwestern goes to the big house next week. This one should be a tight game and I will have to lay off for fear of a late score putting NW up 6.
I am leaning under on the WVU Oklahoma game as both team employ the same style of offense and I think the defenses will be prepared. Both quarterbacks have been great all season and the talent around them is whats keeping me off this game.

Official Week 5 Card:
KSU +7.5 (-120)
UCF/Tulane U44

[footballkelly31]

My leans were terrible as only Army covered. On to the wagers
KSU +7.5 W +1
UCF/Tulane U44 L -1.10

This puts the year to date at -2.13. I have not looked at this weeks games yet and will make an effort to review and do a write up on a few tomorrow. I do like Bama, I know it seems like an over reaction to last weeks thumping of the Dawgs but I think Bama knows that they have to win out and win convincingly. I maybe taking them from here on out. I like them at home giving 10 or less...though I would not be surprised to see it around 14.

[footballkelly31]

First game that intrigues me is the Southern Miss @ Marshall game. Marshall was missing their star running back that last 2 games and they lacked a big threat punch. Getting him back this week will go along way to some quick scores. Southern Miss looks like they have improved drastically with a passing game that is efficient and has helped open up a ground game. Last season the teams combined for 80 points (mostly Marshall) I look for another high scoring game and feel comfortable with a total in the low to mid 60's.

Baylor @ Kansas, I could not avoid hearing about the spread (I try to look at the games and create my own line) I have to lean Baylor and will take them if the line stays under 45. Baylor has scored over 60 in three straight and beat down Kansas last year by 46 in a game sandwiched between WVU and Oklahoma. This year the Jayhawks look even worse and Baylor knows that they have to continue to impress to stay in the top 4. I am leaning towards taking them at 45 or less and taking the over if its at 67 or less.

Tulane @ Temple, There has been nothing that I have seen this year that would make me think that Temples D is not going to shut down Tulane. Tulane has been very good at not turning the ball over but they dont have that stud go to playmaker (Breaux on the outside can spread the field but isnt that playmaker yet). The Temple O obviously revolves around Thomas out of the backfield, keep in mind Tulane got destroyed by GT and their run game. Duke uses the similar spread attack that Temple does and put up 37 with over 400 yards of offense. I see Temple controlling the game and like them to win by 2 scores. If the line is 13 or less I will be taking them.
Wake Forest @ BC, BC defense is for real. They have given up 40 points all season. They held FSU to 14 and Goldsen looked mediocre at best all game. The offense on the other hand is still unable to find their identity. Wake Forest is a pass first team who has a solid defense. The only aspect of the game that scares me is the WF propensity for turnovers. Mix in a passing team that is prone to turnovers and your looking at opportunities to score and go over. If BC can get good field position they maybe able to put up some points but I believe it will be a closer game that shouldn't go above 40 points.

I'll check out the lines tomorrow and come back with plays. Will be looking for something close to these numbers and then any games that jump out at me.

[footballkelly31]

Took the over in Marshall usm game.... 1 unit for over 57

[footballkelly31]

Obviously bummed out by the USM offensive output. The team was super efficient through the air through the first 5 weeks. 4 turnovers and a poor completion percentage killed the over.

BC/Wake total is to low to risk the under and the offenses are not worth putting money on.

Temple number is right where I had it and I am here to win not sweat it out. Pass

The Baylor over/under can go either way. If Baylor wants they can drop 70 on their own and I dont expect Kansas to score to much so I'll lay off the o/u. Baylor is capable of covering with out an issue and I expect them to so I'll be throwing a unit on them -45.

I will be playing NW +10. This is expected to be a low scoring game and with a 2 score spread I am taking the dog.

The PSU Indiana game is intriguing. PSU offense has been terrible and uninspired. IU can score on the ground and in the air. I am leaning IU +6.5 and the Under as 54 seems a bit high. Going to play the Under and a sprinkle on IU ML.

Lastly I am going to take Florida -4.5. Missouri over performed last year and impressed all season. This year not so much. The offense has looked atrocious yet they have been able to win with their D. The gators have been slightly better on offense and also have a solid defense. Both teams are fast and this should be close. I like Florida to grab control of the game late. Both teams have big games again next week (its the SEC every week is big). The fear of a let down is always looming but this team has done it before and I think they will be able to do it again.

Official Card:
USM/Marshall o57 (yesterday)
Baylor -45 (-120)
NW +10
IU/PSU U54
IU ML +220 (.5 unit)
Florida -4.5

Best of luck to everyone this week.

[footballkelly31]

USM Marshal O57 L -1.1
NW +10 L -1.1
IU/PSU U54 W +1
IU ML +220 L -.5
Baylor -45 W +1
Florida -4.5 W +1

Up .3 for the week making the YTD -1.83.

Its getting later and later with regards to looking at the games. First off I have seen the lines for todays games and for whatever reason i like the Cardinal as only a 7 pt fav. I will be putting a unit on it.

Clemson at home against B.C. - B.C has an incredible defense but boy that offense is atrocious. They have scored 7 points in 3 ACC games. With that said I anticipate a close game as Clemson has not impressed me against solid defensive teams. Clemson also travels to Miami next week and may slightly over look this BC team. I would like the Eagles getting 10 but anticipate the line being closer to a TD.

Eastern Michigan @ Toledo - Toledo has that spread attack getting the ball out quickly to multiple targets. Eastern Michigan has Darious Jackson and likes to controll the game. Well we saw what Akron was able to do through the air and I just dont see EMU learning to cover the wideouts in one week. I like Toledo by 3 scores. i would love to see it under 21 but feel good taking it up to 24.

Va Tech @ Miami - Miami has speed and talent but they just have not been able to put it together yet. With clemson on deck I think they maybe looking ahead and like Va tech in this spot. Miami is the better team but Va Tech is the only play if they are getting anything close to a TD. I like them getting 6 or more. The problem is Miami is on a slide and prob not giving that many points. If it is close to a pick um I would take the Hurricanes

Alabama @ Texas A&M - This is an elimination game. Bama has the pedigree and name to get into the playoffs with one loss. Texas A&M does not. The loser will be out. Both teams have great coaches and have been impressive as of late. Both of senior leaders and talented quarterbacks. Only one has a defense that is capable of controlling the game. I like Bama to win this one but its to tough of a game to pick a spread for. I know I would have heard if Bama was a dog so I am guessing the line is close to 3. Under 3 makes no sense so I would guess its at 3.5 to 4 in favor of Bama. Bama games typically dont come down to field goal as the last one happened last October. Also lets keep in mind what happened last year in the game that followed the one pointer. Thats right Bama killed A&M 59-0. There D has proven they can stop the A&M offense and I believe they do it again. I like Bama by anything less then 6.

Will take a look at the lines later and see if any numbers stand out. I will also make my offical plays.

Official card:
Stanford -7 (-105)

[footballkelly31]

Always nice to start the week ahead as Stanford took care of business.

I said I liked BC 10 and i see the line is 17. Scary being that far off but with a Defense like that I feel obligated to take them.

Laying off the Toledo game as I liked -24 or less and its over 4 scores. No way do I trust EMU enough to put money on them.

Laying off the Va Tech game as the number is between where I wanted it.

Grabbing Bama thinking of buying it down to 3 but the juice is insane. Going with the 3.5

I like USF in this spot. They dominated the game last year with the defense not allowing a score till the end of the game. They haven't started the heart of the conference schedule yet and I believe that they will be amped up to make some noise in the conference. They also run the ball well and will not allow the meager Uconn Off. to get into any flow. I'll take them getting the 3 points.

I will be sprinkling half a unit on the Ducks ML+125. I know they have under performed all season but I think this is a spot where they have some value. Washington has a stout run defense but the spread attack of Oregon will create some one on one mismatches that I dont think Washington has the players to stop.

Penn State. I know their offense has been pitiful to say the least but they have a very tough defense and have a tendency to play OSU pretty tough. 19 points is to much in my opinion I would have expected it near 14.

Baylor is just unreal on offense. I will be taking them -21 just because they show no mercy and seem to score at will.

Official Card:
Stanford -7 (Thursday)
BC +17
Bama -3.5
USF +3
Oregon ML +125 (.5 unit)
PSU +19
Baylor -21

[footballkelly31]

Stanford -7 (Thursday) W +1.0
BC +17 P
Bama -3.5 W +1.0
USF +3 W +1.0
Oregon ML +125 (.5 unit) W +.62
PSU +19 L -1.10
Baylor -21 W +1.0

Finally got the YTD total in the black +1.69.

[footballkelly31]

I didn't get a chance to look at the games prior to seeing the lines which I prefer to do. Looking down the list of games I may play some but they will be half unit plays do to the lack of preparation.

Miami getting 7.5 hosting Clemson. Clemson has won a few close games while Miami has payed in a lot of close games and lost two of them. Statistically both teams are pretty even and having Miami at home getting over a touchdown, I like this play.

Baylor hosting the Cyclones at -37. Baylor has proven time in and time out that they can score. Iowa st can give up points but I can see a back door cover and will likely lay off.

Rutgers hosting OSU getting 21. Prime time game with an offense that can put up points. This is the super bowl for Rutgers and I expect them to play it like that. i do fear OSU wearing them down and pulling away late like they did with Penn St but this offense should allow them an opportunity to keep it within 3 scores. I'll take them at home with the points.

Kansas St. getting 7 on the road in Texas. I had a lean on Kansas St. season win total 7.5 at plus odds but didnt pull the trigger. This is one game I liked them to win outright prior to the quarterback injuries. Now that they are coming off a whipping at the hands of Oklahoma and Texas beat Oklahoma two weeks ago in a slober knocker type game. I think this one will fall some where in between. I dont trust the Texas offense and I think the Kansas St. offense has something to prove. I'll take them getting the score.

Offical card: All half unit plays due to not getting to be unbiased when create my own lines.
Miami +7.5
Rutgers +21
Kansas St. +7

[footballkelly31]

All three losses putting YTD at .04.....didn't get a chance to look at any games yet and we see how bad that was for me last week. If I can't get time to make a line or two I may sit out this week.