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A few things to consider for the GMAC Bowl:
Yes, the axiom most considered here may just be that both teams have great, fast-paced offenses that accumulate points in less than 2 minutes, but the caveat that may be forcing some at the register is that Central Michigan's defense is THAT much more efficient than that seen of Troy's lowly performance throughout the season.
If one looks at the weighted/adjusted performance during "credible" sets of game time (i.e. before both teams had their game(s) wrapped-up and were on cruise control), well, that's a more subjective area that may too difficult to concretely figure out, but it should be considered when sets of data could skew the final stats.
Anyway, my point is that Troy's defensive passing efficiency, and not just the generic listing of passing defense that one can find on NCAA.com, is rather good if one explores footballoutsiders.com and correlates those numbers to their strongest opposition on the 2009 schedule, and if one is going to tread lightly when including their performance against Florida and Arkansas earlier this season into the data set.
Troy will show Central Michigan a front-7 with legit athletes of which they've not seen since playing MSU or Boston College. The opponent most resembling what Troy will face tonight was, in my opinion, Middle Tennessee (or maybe Joe Webb and UAB) and the threat of Dwight Dasher. Middle Tennessee's defense is actually ranked (with weighted adjustment for quality of competition) at #21 in the nation, with Troy at #43, and, suprisingly, Central Michigan at #59 per footballoutsiders.com. Now, this isn't a cure-all stat sheet to determine turnouts no else would ever consider, but it should be stated, since there may be a rather large discrepancy in perception of what really to expect tonight in terms of what has been looked-up in the common stat sheet.
Per web1.ncaa.org Troy is in the backfield far more than Central Michigan, with the Trojans ranking at #21/27 with regard to tackles-for-loss and sacks respectively, while CMU comes in at #105/71.
Offensively, in terms of the aforementioned metrics, Troy resides at #39 nationally, while Central Michigan has graded out at #55. This is a significant number to consider when looking at each of the teams' last 5 performances coupled with the probability that Troy can "out-athlete" every phase of CMU's game sans LeFevour/Antonio Brown, thought that is just what the Chips rely on --- so something has to give.
- Troy allows an average of 1.75 sacks/game (#52) while CMU allows only 1.15 (#16)
I'm not saying these are overwhelming reasons to just go against what seems too easy of a play and be different than everyone else, but just things to consider outside of every thread seemingly saying "Hey, that LeFevour kid, I heard he's good, and Troy's defense sucks. Cha-Ching, take it to the bank bitches!"
In my opinion, I'd venture a guess, and maybe a sizeable bet, that Troy will keep it dangerously close for a while, and eventually win the game with Blankeney at the helm going against Steve Stripling in his first outing.
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