Originally Posted by
playmaker79
but out that's the best you are going to do in this scenario. If you hedge on a couple teams, and then hedge again one or more times once you get it the semis, you are going to do even worse.
tcu is -525 right now basically because everyone thinks they are going to beat Iowa state and stay ahead of baylor(the committee sorts of tipped us of to that by the move to 3). I don't think tcu needs any help(unless tosu or Baylor win by like 50 pts perhaps)....field vs tcu is -525 now, and maybe that same number or even higher(if Bama wins and looks good...Oregon has already done so) once they do make the playoff. Hedging before the playoff on other teams is stupid stupid stupid...
if you don't want to ride the thing out, then the best play(by far) is to take that -525 field number. I know you don't want to hear that, but you are believing you are in a much stronger position than you are. I think that -525 number is generous and may increase if Bama wins today since tcu is either going to draw Bama or Oregon in the first round and not fsu.
Think about it like this- if tcu was playing Oregon today and then Bama next week, the ml odds on those games would be -170 and -250 I'd guess. Guess what? Parlaying tcu to win those(and those are likely back to back opponents) pays more than tcu +500. If you really can get field for -525 right now(maybe not with Oregon looking good last night), then I would jump on it with that hedge....if you really want to hedge. Pissing around by hedging in games that won't even increase thus odds for the next step is stupid.