Throwing Darts.... Hoping for a Trick! Hatter's 2014 Picks.
Excited about the new season and itchy to get some action on the gridiron. I'm pretty rusty so not sure how I'll do. Fade material for sure. Normally, I'd just post my units but going to try something different. Posting everything straight up. Local Bookies are sucking this year so I am posting everything vs Bookmaker. BoL to everyone on beating the books.
9/4 Thurs
Yeah UTSA has a lot of returning starters. Yeah, Arizona QB is a redshirt freshmen playing in his 1st away game w/ a "Hostile Crowd" in front of a national audience. Few other things many are bringing up. I was originally leaning UTSA but there's just too many glaring stats that I can't ignore in the 1st game vs Houston (a team not known for its defense).
UTSA scored 27 pts. Respectable #. BUT it was against a team that had 6 TOs. The score should've been closer to 47 against Houston.
UTSA has a SR QB. BUT he has never started a game b4 Houston and has played in 5 total games, all off the bench a year ago.
UTSA was ranked #56 in total offense last yr (Arizona #30). BUT they only converted 5/17 attempts on 3rd down vs Houston. Had a 2.84 ave on the ground and a total of 3.55 yds/play on offense. 264 total yds on offense.
Zona scored 58 pts vs a crappy defense. 164.47 passing rating, +1 TO ratio, 7.35 rushing/att, 8.37 offensive yds/play, and converted 52.38% on 3rd down (11/21).
Arguments can of course be made for both sides but these few just seem to be glaring to me. TOs will play a key part of every game but take a look at the stats after you take those away. Zona or nothing is the play. Anything can happen on the only game in town on a Thurs in the 2nd week of NCAAF but I'm throwing my 1st dart at the Wildcats.
On a side note, defense may be key for both sides as UTSA's returning starters on defense may hold Zona to around 30 pts. Possible close game in the 1H w/ Arizona coming out flat on offense. Looking at a possible 31-13 final. Leaning Under 54.5. May lock it in later.
If I'm off base and UTSA gives Arizona a game. Pretty sure it'll still go under. UTSA will not keep up in a shootout w/ the Cats unless there's a lot of defensive scoring.
Considering tacking more on for Oregon St at -9. Spread keeps dropping and I believe Hawaii will get dominated here by a good veteran QB. Huge over-reaction to last week vs Washington who was able to score today but nothing close to covering vs E Wash today (59-52 w/ -17 spread).
Also looking at Colo St +8 vs Boise St, UCLA -21 vs Memphis, UTEP +21 vs Tex Tech.
Wash St/Nev O67 -110 to win 200 L
Wash St/Nev 2H O34.5 EV to win 200 L
0-2 -420.00 for the day.
NCAAF: 1-3 -535.00
NFL: 0-0 +0.00
9/6 Sat
Kansas St -12 -110 to win 300 L
FAU +39.5 -110 to win 200 E
Utah -11.5 -110 to win 200 W
Arkansas St -110 +17 to win 100 W
Oregon St -10 -110 to win 500 L
Navy -3 -115 to win 300 W
Kentucky -13 -125 to win 150 W
Oregon St -9 -120 to win 500 L
Colo St +8 -111 to win 200 L
UTEP +21 -115 to win 200 W
Wyoming PK -110 to win 200 W
Air Force PK -110 to win 320 L
Memphis 2H +10 -115 to win 200 W
Memphis/UCLA 2H O31 -110 to win 200 L
7-6 -924.00 for the day.
'14 NCAAF: 8-9 -1459.00
'14 NFL: 0-0 +0.00
Had trouble coming to terms w/ the final of the Wyoming/AF and Hawaii/Colo St games. Brutal beat in the Hawaii game. Let's see what this week brings.
Ohio St -32 -120 to win 500
Indiana -8 -110 to win 200
Missouri -10 -105 to win 200
Arkansas St +17 -120 to win 200
N Illinois -10 -115 to win 325
Arizona St -15 -110 to win 300
Nebraska -12 -110 to win 500
NFL: Arizona -3 EV to win 200 L
NFL: SD/Ari U46 -110 to win 200 W
NFL: Arizona 2H PK -120 to win 200 L
1-2 -240.00 for the day.
'14 NCAAF: 8-9 -1459.00
'14 NFL: 1-2 -240.00
Total: 9-11 -1699.00
9/12 Fri
Toledo +10 -110 to win 200 L
Baylor 2H -13 -120 to win 500 L
0-2 -820.00 for the day.
'14 NCAAF: 8-11 -2279.00
'14 NFL: 1-2 -240.00
Total: 9-13 -2519.00
9/13 Sat
Ohio St -32 -120 to win 500 W
Indiana -8 -110 to win 200 L
Missouri -10 -105 to win 200 W
Arkansas St +17 -120 to win 200 L
N Illinois -10 -115 to win 325 W
Arizona St -15 -110 to win 300 L
Nebraska -12 -110 to win 500 W
Georgia -7 -104 to win 500 L
Tex A&M 1H -20.5 -110 to win 200 L
Georgia Southern +17 -110 to win 300 W
Georgia Southern/Georgia Tech O54 -110 to win 200 W
Rutgers +3 -104 to win 300 E
Alabama -47 -109 to win 300 L
Boston College +17 -105 to win 300 W
Oklahoma St 2H -7 -105 to win 150 W
N. Ill 2H -3 -120 to win 150 L
Navy 2H -0.5 -120 to win 300 L
Texas 2H +3.5 -115 to win 800 L
8-9 -842.00 for the day. Need to stay away from 2H bets. Original 7 bets would've gave me a positive day (+405.00). Blew it today.
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Throwing Darts.... Hoping for a Trick! Hatter's 2014 Picks.
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