[BriGuy]

I looked at the top-10 finals and is it just me, or are they 1-7-1 ATS? It really depends on where you put Ohio State but that is the game I am calling a tie because at my book the line started at 17 when Braxton Miller was healthy, dropped to 12' when he was injured, then inched its way all the way back up to 17 by kickoff. Even if you consider that a win, the top 10 was still a pretty weak 2-7 (with Baylor yet to play).

[Hot Jerry]

Yes Sir , ur right they stunk !!

[The Giant]

Ohio State wasn't 17 near kickoff, were they?

I would say the overall numbers were 2-7, some of those were really close though. Oregon and Oklahoma just toyed with their opponents.

[gojetsgomoxies]

this has nothing to do with the thread subject, but i'll throw it here.

seems like alot of FBS vs. FCS games came in really close to the number... how many FCS teams beat FBS yesterday? it wasn't many...

[BriGuy]

Ohio State wasn't 17 near kickoff, were they?

I would say the overall numbers were 2-7, some of those were really close though. Oregon and Oklahoma just toyed with their opponents.

Well yeah, but that's part of the problem in betting heavy favorites. Oregon and OK could have won by 70 if they wanted but as is so often the infuriating case when playing heavy favorites, they just don't play a full 60.

[jjgold]

Its called parity

going on in all sports now but Tennis

[gojetsgomoxies]

Its called parity

going on in all sports now but Tennis

i agree generally, but the early ATS attributes of the top 25 preseason teams has jumped around alot year to year. also FCS upsets and big upsets in generally has jumped around annually too.

[chopperocker]

good observation. failure to meet market expectations sometimes can be attributed to level of motivation and especially in the 1st week lack of experience in defensive backfield. in general I look for reasons to support top 25 teams following an upset loss (#364 South Carolina -15.5 vs E.Car week 2). #'s will always be inflated in top 25 games. level of talent in the backup players is probably the better way to handicap games like Okla vs La Tech.

[gojetsgomoxies]

yup, pretty sure that FBS coaches saw the huge string of FCS upsets (2 septembers ago. or last september.. or both? not sure) and decided these were serious games and not games to try out lots of new things (i.e. they don't assume they will win by 3 or 4 td's eventually).

i do like the whole cfb world becoming smaller and therefore significant underdogs being good bets in general.

i have seen the suggestion in the last few months that the lebron james "superteam" mindset is growing CFB (obviously it was always there to some extent. guys want to win.... a friend of mine's son was a pretty highly ranked recruit. i told his dad, he should go to losing school and start 4 years at his preferred position vs. 1.5 years with much better school converted to safety. the look i got said it all. not a good idea by me at all.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

1st week is probably a good time to bet against these top ranked teams since they like to keep things conservative.

but only one of the teams covering the spread is just ridiculous.

[Big Bear]

I looked at the top-10 finals and is it just me, or are they 1-7-1 ATS? It really depends on where you put Ohio State but that is the game I am calling a tie because at my book the line started at 17 when Braxton Miller was healthy, dropped to 12' when he was injured, then inched its way all the way back up to 17 by kickoff. Even if you consider that a win, the top 10 was still a pretty weak 2-7 (with Baylor yet to play).

great observation

[No coincidences]

Hasn't the Top-10 absolutely killed it ATS in the last two years?

Coincidence?

[gojetsgomoxies]

i remember seeing a recent year where the top 10-15 just got clobbered ATS the first week. so i looked at other years and alot of years they did well.

one thing i would look at is teams that move way up the preseason top 25 from their finish the previous year.... ucla comes to mind this year.... teams like mich state and clemson other years.

[The Giant]

Hasn't the Top-10 absolutely killed it ATS in the last two years?

Coincidence?

All predetermined?

[No coincidences]

All predetermined?

Nope.

Just all magically evens out in the end.

In case you haven't noticed, folks, the books know what they're doing.

[Big Bear]

Nope.

Just all magically evens out in the end.

In case you haven't noticed, folks, the books know what they're doing.

well if you are so sharp to know what the books are thinking please post the info prior to the games.

[No coincidences]

well if you are so sharp to know what the books are thinking please post the info prior to the games.

For hanging around a gambling forum as much as you do, it's amazing that you haven't learned jack shit Ice.

I'm up over 300 units in the last two years. That's $30,000 if you'd have tailed at $100 per unit. And I'm far from a "sharp," or any sort of gambling expert. If you'd just open your eyes and pay attention to lines sometimes, you'd realize it's not that difficult to profit. Instead, you're throwing impossible bullshit parlays to the wall every day, hoping one will stick. Same as you were years ago.

You aren't just a -EV gambler -- you're a -EV person. Find a different hobby already.

[Big Bear]

For hanging around a gambling forum as much as you do, it's amazing that you haven't learned jack shit Ice.

I'm up over 300 units in the last two years. That's $30,000 if you'd have tailed at $100 per unit. And I'm far from a "sharp," or any sort of gambling expert. If you'd just open your eyes and pay attention to lines sometimes, you'd realize it's not that difficult to profit. Instead, you're throwing impossible bullshit parlays to the wall every day, hoping one will stick. Same as you were years ago.

You aren't just a -EV gambler -- you're a -EV person. Find a different hobby already.

too bad you bet $20 a game and not $100 you cheap fukk.

[itchypickle]

Definitely a more level playing field this year it looks like. Waiting to see how the Va Tech and Ohio St...Michigan St and Oregon games play out next weekend.

[No coincidences]

too bad you bet $20 a game and not $100 you cheap fukk.

Do me a favor, moron: add up how many plays I made last year at $20 per unit, figure out how much total $$$ I had on the table and get back to me. I know it's a little beyond remedial math so you'll really struggle with it, so here's a calculator app to help you:

http://www.online-calculator.com/

[convick]

too bad you bet $20 a game and not $100 you cheap fukk.

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New Hobby? Guy should get a job!