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Tommy Karate - CFB 2014/2015
Only 2 weeks to go till the season. Working on a few things, but will definitely weight more on totals (usually my strength) compared to my side plays. Will have the line movement autos again, but the real goal for me is Bowl Season. I feel I've tweaked the weightings of those plays to set me up for a nice finish to the season. My goal here is at least 50u. I likely wont have an auto for more then 5u this season.
The Bowl season is going to be totally different. Different Conference match Ups. A different way of selecting who plays who and where they play. It should be very interesting. GL this season.
So the game-plan for me will be 7 auto's ranging from 2-6u, and all are locked in unit wise from start to finish. I dont believe in reducing or increasing units based on hot or cold streaks. I like to stick to my pre-season game plan on these.
Non-autos will be 1u minimum on sides, and 2u minimum on totals. Ive always been much better at totals in college vs sides, so decided to up the plays to a 2u min.
This sounds rather complicated. Normally the more complicated it is, the tougher it is to win. Maybe I am missing something.
think algo/black box trading..Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH
GL with your system. I will stick to my old fashioned system which is wagering the same amount of money on every wager. To me, a game is either worth a wager or it is not. It is really that simple. I have noticed that for the most part, and especially in sites like this one, all of these wanna-be math geniuses spend so much time on figuring out how much they should wager and what system they should use that they forget the most important part. That would be who to wager on. If you do not know the teams, it does not matter what system you use. Like I said, I am old fashion when it comes to this, but if you find a system that consistantly gives you between 55-59% winners, use it. I have averaged a little over 58% in the past 25 years even though I have never gone over 61%. Perhaps not the greatest or the most spactacular, but a huge money maker over time.
wow, 58% is insane....not sure what you mean by not the most spectauluar. over the course of a year/years, over 55% ats is pretty unheard of - unless you're sam rothstein or also incorprating larger moneyline plays into that %...
keep a tracked thread this season. would love to watch you in action.
i call it fade loser demo
Thursday 8.28
(6u) UL-Monroe -2 (C1)
(6u) Tulsa -6.5 (C1)
(2u) Over Wash St 62.5
Last edited by Tommy Karate; 08-28-14 at 12:08 AM.
(2u) A&M +9.5 (C6)
(3u) Boise St +10.5/-120 (C7)
(1u) Utah -41
(1u) Under Vandy 50.5
(4u) Temple +9 (C4)
(6u) Arizona St -46 (C1)
(6u) Rutgers +8/-120 (C4/C6)
Post got stuck before....looks like servers were down
thats some big plays buddy
best of luck this season
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zona st and boise blow the 4th...
i assume zona took out their starters - always the downside of laying huge points.
Sunday 8.31
(6u) Baylor -32'
(4u) Over Baylor 74
Last edited by Tommy Karate; 08-29-14 at 10:27 AM.
Friday 8.29
(1u) Over Arizona 60
(1u) Colorado St +3
(1u) UConn +15.5
Last edited by Tommy Karate; 08-29-14 at 05:57 PM.
Saturday 8.30
(3u) Central Florida -2 (C/N)
(2u) Over Florida St 63'
(6u) UAB -2' (C1)
(6u) Miss St -29' (C1)
Last edited by Tommy Karate; 08-30-14 at 12:49 AM.
0-2 yesterday....not a good feeling....im playing Uconn +15.5....Friday dogs last year at home were like 75%
agreed - lets hope there is some jet lag for the cougars
(4u) UTSA +10'/-120 (C4)
Last edited by Tommy Karate; 08-29-14 at 07:18 PM.
(4u) UNLV +21.5 (C4)
0-3 I did play UTSA and Colorado St.....why you like UCF tomorrow Tommy! I love Mcklenburg and I like Franklin too....Oleary is a GT guy and I know they got most of the D back from last year
its an auto play for me - no opinion on the game..
What does C/N mean ? Thanks. Also, do you have it listed what each autoplay means? Forgot from last year. Thanks.
GL to all today. Going to give NCAAF another chance this year. Staying with this and NFL only for rest of 2014.
Its a neutral site play when i label it "C/N"
Damn bro, leaning opposite on UAB game, sigh...
(6u) Indiana -33 (C1)
(4u) Appalachian St +30 (C4)
(4u) W. Michigan +8 (C4)
(6u) Navy +14' (C2/C3)
(6u) Illinois -16 (C1)
Last edited by Tommy Karate; 08-30-14 at 10:59 AM.
crazy amount of action today - these lines are so soft and such volatile movement.
happens every season the 1st few weeks....
tommy, u got any info bout wen the Indiana game will get started?
i saw 12:40 before but looks like still a rain delay
(1u) Wisconsin +3.5
(4u) UMass +17.5 (C3)
(7u) Florida Atl +22 (C4/C7)
Last edited by Tommy Karate; 08-30-14 at 01:37 PM.
wow.....navy blew it.
ohio st such an easy call...
no way i can do this again next weekend.....this is an insane amount of action in play.
if these lines are still this volatile next week, im going to have to do something to adjust...
Last edited by Tommy Karate; 08-30-14 at 02:37 PM.
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