Week 1 Over/Under Picks based on end of season stats...

usma1992 · 08-02-14 12:44 PM

I don't bet until Week 5 but here are the picks...something to think about.

Time

Visitor

Home

Sprd

VEGAS

Proj

60%

70%

75%

90%

6:00 PM

TexasAM

0

SouthCarolina

0

-11

57.5

48.3

NB

7:00 PM

WakeForest

0

LouisianaMonroe

0

3.5

47.0

50.9

O

NB

7:00 PM

EastCarolina

0

Minnesota

0

-26.5

0.0

45.1

N

7:30 PM

SouthernMiss

0

OleMiss

0

-28.5

55.5

57.6

O

NB

O

NB

8:00 PM

Tulane

0

Tulsa

0

-4

47.0

48.0

O

NB

8:00 PM

OleMiss

0

BoiseState

0

9.5

57.0

57.8

O

NB

9:15 PM

Temple

0

Vanderbilt

0

-14.5

52.0

43.8

NB

10:00 PM

Rutgers

0

WashingtonState

0

-9.5

60.0

66.5

NB

7:00 PM

BYU

0

Connecticut

0

17

50.5

55.7

O

NB

7:30 PM

BowlingGreen

0

WesternKentucky

0

7.5

56.0

44.9

NB

9:00 PM

ColoradoState

0

Colorado

0

-3

65.0

49.4

NB

9:00 PM

TexasSanAntonio

0

Houston

0

-13

56.0

52.9

NB

10:30 PM

UNLV

0

Arizona

0

-24

57.0

52.0

NB

8:30 AM

PennState

0

UCF

0

1

47.5

46.7

NB

12:00 PM

OhioState

0

Navy

0

17

63.0

26.6

NB

12:00 PM

UCLA

0

Virginia

0

22.5

59.0

56.3

NB

12:00 PM

Alabama

0

Michigan

0

34.5

50.0

38.9

NB

12:00 PM

Troy

0

UAB

0

67.0

49.8

NB

12:00 PM

Ohio

0

KentState

0

-2.5

50.0

42.3

NB

12:00 PM

WesternMichigan

0

Purdue

0

-12.5

53.0

47.3

NB

12:30 PM

Georgia

0

NCState

0

-23

53.0

53.7

O

NB

3:00 PM

BostonCollege

0

Massachusetts

0

14.5

48.5

30.7

NB

3:30 PM

California

0

Northwestern

0

-12

61.0

66.0

O

NB

3:30 PM

FloridaAtlantic

0

Nebraska

0

-24

51.0

42.4

NB

3:30 PM

Marshall

0

MiamiOhio

0

24.5

60.0

42.1

NB

3:30 PM

Rice

0

NotreDame

0

-24.5

52.0

41.3

NB

3:30 PM

Alabama

0

WestVirginia

0

27

55.0

45.8

NB

5:30 PM

Clemson

0

Georgia

0

-8.5

58.0

55.7

NB

7:00 PM

LouisianaTech

0

Oklahoma

0

-37.5

51.5

48.1

NB

7:00 PM

Idaho

0

Florida

0

34.5

52.0

43.4

NB

7:30 PM

FresnoState

0

USC

0

-22

57.0

58.5

O

NB

8:00 PM

FloridaState

0

OklahomaState

0

17.5

63.0

49.3

NB

8:00 PM

NorthTexas

0

Texas

0

-25

51.0

48.2

NB

8:00 PM

UTEP

0

NewMexico

0

-7.5

66.0

25.9

NB

9:00 PM

LSU

0

Wisconsin

0

5

50.5

35.5

U

7:00 PM

UtahState

0

Tennessee

0

-6.5

51.0

45.1

NB

7:30 PM

SanJoseState

0

Baylor

0

-31.5

74.0

60.9

NB

8:00 PM

Miami

0

Louisville

0

-3

55.5

41.7

NB

thetrinity · 08-17-14 09:47 PM

half these arent even the right games what the hell

usma1992 · 08-18-14 10:09 AM

really...I'll check... which ones... probably because they are playing division II teams and my system may not have picked it up ...

Tboonepickem · 08-18-14 11:37 AM

michigan / alabama.

BigdaddyQH · 08-18-14 07:51 PM

Originally Posted by usma1992

really...I'll check... which ones... probably because they are playing division II teams and my system may not have picked it up ...

Neither East Carolina nor Minnesota are Division 2 teams and they have NEVER played each other. You have Ole Miss down twice, and UGA playing at North Carolina State. Junk this and start all over.

usma1992 · 08-20-14 06:15 AM

6:00 PM

TexasAM

0

SouthCarolina

0

-10

57.0

48.3

NB

N

7:00 PM

WakeForest

0

LouisianaMonroe

0

2.5

46.0

50.9

O

NB

O

8:00 PM

Tulane

0

Tulsa

0

-5

47.0

48.0

O

NB

O

8:00 PM

OleMiss

0

BoiseState

0

10

56.0

57.8

O

NB

O

9:15 PM

Temple

0

Vanderbilt

0

-16

52.5

43.8

NB

N

10:00 PM

Rutgers

0

WashingtonState

0

-8

60.5

66.5

NB

N

7:00 PM

BYU

0

Connecticut

0

17

50.5

55.7

O

NB

O

7:30 PM

BowlingGreen

0

WesternKentucky

0

7.5

56.0

44.9

NB

N

9:00 PM

ColoradoState

0

Colorado

0

-3

64.0

49.4

NB

N

9:00 PM

TexasSanAntonio

0

Houston

0

-11

55.0

52.9

NB

N

10:30 PM

UNLV

0

Arizona

0

-23.5

60.5

52.0

NB

N

8:30 AM

PennState

0

UCF

0

-1

48.5

46.7

NB

N

12:00 PM

OhioState

0

Navy

0

17.5

63.0

26.6

NB

N

12:00 PM

UCLA

0

Virginia

0

21.5

59.0

56.3

NB

N

12:00 PM

Troy

0

UAB

0

66.0

49.8

NB

N

12:00 PM

Ohio

0

KentState

0

-3

49.0

42.3

NB

N

12:00 PM

WesternMichigan

0

Purdue

0

-11

53.0

47.3

NB

N

12:30 PM

GeorgiaSouthern

0

NCState

0

-23

53.0

31.1

NB

N

3:00 PM

BostonCollege

0

Massachusetts

0

14.5

48.0

30.7

NB

N

3:30 PM

California

0

Northwestern

0

-10

62.0

66.0

O

NB

O

3:30 PM

FloridaAtlantic

0

Nebraska

0

-23

51.0

42.4

NB

N

3:30 PM

Marshall

0

MiamiOhio

0

22.5

60.0

42.1

NB

N

3:30 PM

Rice

0

NotreDame

0

-20.5

0.0

41.3

N

3:30 PM

Alabama

0

WestVirginia

0

24.5

55.0

45.8

NB

N

4:00 PM

Arkansas

0

Auburn

0

-21

57.0

31.5

NB

N

5:30 PM

Clemson

0

Georgia

0

-7.5

57.5

55.7

NB

N

7:00 PM

LouisianaTech

0

Oklahoma

0

-37.5

51.5

48.1

NB

N

7:00 PM

Idaho

0

Florida

0

-35

51.5

43.4

NB

N

7:30 PM

FresnoState

0

USC

0

-21

58.0

58.5

O

NB

O

7:30 PM

SouthernMiss

0

MississippiState

0

30.5

55.5

52.3

NB

N

8:00 PM

FloridaState

0

OklahomaState

0

17.5

63.0

49.3

NB

N

8:00 PM

NorthTexas

0

Texas

0

-24

51.0

48.2

NB

N

8:00 PM

UTEP

0

NewMexico

0

-7.5

66.0

25.9

NB

N

9:00 PM

LSU

0

Wisconsin

0

4

50.5

35.5

U

10:30 PM

Washington

0

Hawaii

0

14.5

60.0

59.2

NB

N

7:00 PM

UtahState

0

Tennessee

0

-6.5

51.0

45.1

NB

N

7:30 PM

SMU

0

Baylor

0

-33

75.5

69.9

NB

N

8:00 PM

Miami

0

Louisville

0

-3.5

55.5

41.7

NB

N

This is why I post ... I bet week 5... I work through the bugs each year.

600 PM

TexasAM

0

SouthCarolina

0

-10

57.0

48.3

NB

N

7:00 PM

WakeForest

0

LouisianaMonroe

0

2.5

46.0

50.9

O

NB

O

8:00 PM

Tulane

0

Tulsa

0

-5

47.0

48.0

O

NB

O

8:00 PM

OleMiss

0

BoiseState

0

10

56.0

57.8

O

NB

O

9:15 PM

Temple

0

Vanderbilt

0

-16

52.5

43.8

NB

N

10:00 PM

Rutgers

0

WashingtonState

0

-8

60.5

66.5

NB

N

7:00 PM

BYU

0

Connecticut

0

17

50.5

55.7

O

NB

O

7:30 PM

BowlingGreen

0

WesternKentucky

0

7.5

56.0

44.9

NB

N

9:00 PM

ColoradoState

0

Colorado

0

-3

64.0

49.4

NB

N

9:00 PM

TexasSanAntonio

0

Houston

0

-11

55.0

52.9

NB

N

10:30 PM

UNLV

0

Arizona

0

-23.5

60.5

52.0

NB

N

8:30 AM

PennState

0

UCF

0

-1

48.5

46.7

NB

N

12:00 PM

OhioState

0

Navy

0

17.5

63.0

26.6

NB

N

12:00 PM

UCLA

0

Virginia

0

21.5

59.0

56.3

NB

N

12:00 PM

Troy

0

UAB

0

66.0

49.8

NB

N

12:00 PM

Ohio

0

KentState

0

-3

49.0

42.3

NB

N

12:00 PM

WesternMichigan

0

Purdue

0

-11

53.0

47.3

NB

N

12:30 PM

GeorgiaSouthern

0

NCState

0

-23

53.0

31.1

NB

N

3:00 PM

BostonCollege

0

Massachusetts

0

14.5

48.0

30.7

NB

N

3:30 PM

California

0

Northwestern

0

-10

62.0

66.0

O

NB

O

3:30 PM

FloridaAtlantic

0

Nebraska

0

-23

51.0

42.4

NB

N

3:30 PM

Marshall

0

MiamiOhio

0

22.5

60.0

42.1

NB

N

3:30 PM

Rice

0

NotreDame

0

-20.5

0.0

41.3

N

3:30 PM

Alabama

0

WestVirginia

0

24.5

55.0

45.8

NB

N

4:00 PM

Arkansas

0

Auburn

0

-21

57.0

31.5

NB

N

5:30 PM

Clemson

0

Georgia

0

-7.5

57.5

55.7

NB

N

7:00 PM

LouisianaTech

0

Oklahoma

0

-37.5

51.5

48.1

NB

N

7:00 PM

Idaho

0

Florida

0

-35

51.5

43.4

NB

N

7:30 PM

FresnoState

0

USC

0

-21

58.0

58.5

O

NB

O

7:30 PM

SouthernMiss

0

MississippiState

0

30.5

55.5

52.3

NB

N

8:00 PM

FloridaState

0

OklahomaState

0

17.5

63.0

49.3

NB

N

8:00 PM

NorthTexas

0

Texas

0

-24

51.0

48.2

NB

N

8:00 PM

UTEP

0

NewMexico

0

-7.5

66.0

25.9

NB

N

9:00 PM

LSU

0

Wisconsin

0

4

50.5

35.5

U

10:30 PM

Washington

0

Hawaii

0

14.5

60.0

59.2

NB

N

7:00 PM

UtahState

0

Tennessee

0

-6.5

51.0

45.1

NB

N

7:30 PM

SMU

0

Baylor

0

-33

75.5

69.9

NB

N

8:00 PM

Miami

0

Louisville

0

-3.5

55.5

41.7

NB

James Marques · 08-21-14 11:12 AM

You have 30 unders out of 38 games. Sounds like a scoring issue. I've had the same problem in the past. Obviously I know a lot of them are close and you won't be betting them, but if your model is scoring that far under the Vegas line (close or not) then there is a flaw in how you account for scoring. Having said that, if you play the overs you can probably hit at a decent clip. I'll offer you this piece of advice: if you're not accounting for comparative average field position (very few statistical models do, so there's nothing wrong with that) be sure to adjust for offensive pace. If I had to guess, this is why your scoring is so low. Think about it like it's the NBA. If a fast-paced team and a slow-paced team play each other, things pretty much average out (at least for simplicity's sake). However, when two fast-paced teams play, each teams number of possessions increases significantly (hence, 220+ over/under lines). The exact opposite, obviously, is the case for two slow-paced teams head to head (180 over/under lines). Without getting too much into it, creating a "tempo factor" by which to multiply your calculated scores would probably help bridge the gap in your scoring differential.

usma1992 · 08-22-14 09:41 PM

program over time for just that "tempo piece". I attempted to do the same with college football and even NFL... college football wasn't successful at all and I think it is because there is to big of a disparity between the level of teams each team plays. Ohio State plays Navy or Youngstown State than it plays Michigan state...

I completely understand and agree with your synopsis...but I haven't found a way to implement it within football yet. I would say that you shouldn't worry about the low values of the predicted numbers... because I am only betting a few of the games. The predicted values are only one piece of the pie. The second is a screening process.

This is year 5 for me. I have only been successful on college basketball and moderately successful on NFL last year. College Football has been a disaster almost every year. However, now I feel that I have ample data and ample testing. I am getting my Master's in Statistics so hopefully, I am channeling in on something...

Still need help on baseball. Thank you for the input. I agree with you... but implementation I a harder task.

usma1992 · 09-11-14 02:22 PM

you believe Cincinnati hasn't played a game yet... Weird.

Time

Visitor

Home

Sprd

VEGAS

57%

58%

63%

70%

80%

90%

Final

8:00 PM

LouisianaTech

0

NorthTexas

0

-3.5

47.5

NB

N

9:00 PM

Houston

0

BYU

0

-17.5

60.5

U

7:00 PM

Toledo

0

Cincinnati

0

-9.5

59.0

NB

N

8:00 PM

Baylor

0

Buffalo

0

35

69.5

NB

N

12:00 PM

Indiana

0

BowlingGreen

0

8

72.5

U

12:00 PM

Ohio

0

Marshall

0

-21.5

57.5

NB

N

12:00 PM

UCF

0

Missouri

0

-10

54.0

NB

N

12:00 PM

KentState

0

OhioState

0

-32.5

51.0

NB

N

12:00 PM

EastCarolina

0

VirginiaTech

0

-10

54.0

NB

O

NB

O

12:00 PM

Syracuse

0

CMU

0

6

51.0

NB

N

12:00 PM

Pitt

0

FloridaInt

0

24.5

49.0

NB

N

12:00 PM

BoiseState

0

Connecticut

0

16

49.0

NB

O

NB

O

12:00 PM

GeorgiaSouthern

0

GeorgiaTech

0

-17

56.5

NB

N

12:00 PM

WestVirginia

0

Maryland

0

-3.5

57.5

O

NB

O

12:00 PM

Massachusetts

0

Vanderbilt

0

-14.5

46.5

NB

N

12:30 PM

Louisville

0

Virginia

0

6.5

48.0

NB

O

NB

O

2:00 PM

Wyoming

0

Oregon

0

-43

64.0

NB

N

2:00 PM

AirForce

0

GeorgiaState

0

11.5

60.0

U

3:30 PM

NCState

0

USF

0

1.5

52.0

O

NB

O

3:30 PM

MiamiOhio

0

Michigan

0

33.5

51.5

O

NB

O

3:30 PM

IowaState

0

Iowa

0

-11.5

49.5

NB

O

NB

O

3:30 PM

Kansas

0

Duke

0

-14

56.0

O

NB

O

3:30 PM

Georgia

0

SouthCarolina

0

6.5

60.0

NB

N

3:30 PM

Arkansas

0

TexasTech

0

-1

66.5

NB

N

3:30 PM

ArkansasState

0

Miami

0

-14.5

52.0

NB

U

4:00 PM

MississippiState

0

SouthAlabama

0

14

54.5

NB

N

4:00 PM

Kentucky

0

OleMiss

0

-27.5

58.5

NB

U

4:00 PM

Illinois

0

Washington

0

-13

65.0

NB

N

4:00 PM

Minnesota

0

TCU

0

-16

49.0

NB

N

5:00 PM

WesternMichigan

0

Idaho

0

-2.5

59.5

O

NB

O

5:00 PM

Army

0

Stanford

0

-28

53.0

NB

N

6:00 PM

EasternMichigan

0

OldDominion

0

-19

72.5

NB

N

6:00 PM

SouthernMiss

0

Alabama

0

-48

56.0

NB

N

7:00 PM

WesternKentucky

0

MTSU

0

-1.5

64.5

NB

N

7:00 PM

WakeForest

0

UtahState

0

-15

43.5

U

7:00 PM

Tulsa

0

FloridaAtlantic

0

52.0

O

NB

O

7:00 PM

TexasSanAntonio

0

OklahomaState

0

-13.5

55.0

U

7:00 PM

LouisianaMonroe

0

LSU

0

-31

49.5

NB

N

7:00 PM

NorthernIllinois

0

UNLV

0

10

55.0

O

NB

O

7:30 PM

Purdue

0

NotreDame

0

-27.5

56.5

NB

N

7:30 PM

Kentucky

0

Florida

0

-18.5

51.5

NB

O

NB

O

8:00 PM

Navy

0

TexasState

0

10

57.0

NB

N

8:00 PM

Tennessee

0

Oklahoma

0

-20.5

56.0

NB

O

NB

O

8:00 PM

NewMexicoState

0

UTEP

0

-10

61.0

NB

N

8:00 PM

UCLA

0

Texas

0

7

50.5

O

NB

O

8:00 PM

PennState

0

Rutgers

0

3

51.5

NB

N

8:00 PM

USC

0

BostonCollege

0

17

55.0

O

NB

O

9:00 PM

Rice

0

TexasAM

0

-31.5

71.5

NB

N

10:00 PM

ArizonaState

0

Colorado

0

14.5

67.5

NB

N

10:30 PM

Nebraska

0

FresnoState

0

11.5

62.0

NB

N

11:00 PM

Nevada

0

Arizona

0

-17.5

63.0

U

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Thread Tools

Week 1 Over/Under Picks based on end of season stats...

Minor Hiccup---The site I download the picks from changed some team names...

Your feedback was appreciated and was dead on... I have adjusted my college bball

Macks Week 3 OU Picks.. Getting close to betting time... I bet starting week 5...can