[BigdaddyQH]

Here are some of my GOY picks for this season. All wagers made at the Golden Nugget yesterday.

8/28. South Carolina -9 vs Texas A&M.
9/13. Nebraska -4 @ Fresno State
9/13. South Carolina -3 vs Georgia
9/25. UCLA +7 @ Arizona State
9/27. N.C. State +30 vs Florida State
10/4. Baylor -3 @ Texas
10/11. Mississippi +1 @ Texas A&M
10/25. Boise State +1 vs BYU
10/25. South Carolina +7 @ Auburn
11/1. Mississipi +7 vs Auburn
11/15. Miami +14 1/2 vs Florida State
11/22. Mississippi -5 @ Arkansas
11/29. N.C. State +20 @ North Carolina
11/29. Baylor -6 1/2 @ Texas Tech

Last year the Nugget took a hit because they really liked Northwestern, and injuries decimated that team. Northwestern went 3-8 ATS. This year the lines are much tighter. I played over 30 games last year, while only playing 14 this season. This season I think that Auburn will not be aws good as they were last season, so I faded them twice. I look for good seasons out of South Carolina and Mississippi. I also faded Texas A&M because of a terrible defense that has already lost two starters from last year's unit and many skill position players from the offense including Manziel. I tool N.C. State and two big pointspreads. +30 at home against Florida State where they are 3-1 S/U, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Raleigh, and +20 at North Carolina, where State is 2-2 S/U and 2-1-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Chapel Hill. I like Miami + 14 1/2 points at home against Florida State. Miami has an extra week to prepare for Florida State. I also think that the line could drop significantly if Miami is still in the ACC Coastal hunt.

[Killer_Demo]

Here are some of my GOY picks for this season. All wagers made at the Golden Nugget yesterday.

8/28. South Carolina -9 vs Texas A&M.
9/13. Nebraska -4 @ Fresno State
9/13. South Carolina -3 vs Georgia
9/25. UCLA +7 @ Arizona State
9/27. N.C. State +30 vs Florida State
10/4. Baylor -3 @ Texas
10/11. Mississippi +1 @ Texas A&M
10/25. Boise State +1 vs BYU
10/25. South Carolina +7 @ Auburn
11/1. Mississipi +7 vs Auburn
11/15. Miami +14 1/2 vs Florida State
11/22. Mississippi -5 @ Arkansas
11/29. N.C. State +20 @ North Carolina
11/29. Baylor -6 1/2 @ Texas Tech

Last year the Nugget took a hit because they really liked Northwestern, and injuries decimated that team. Northwestern went 3-8 ATS. This year the lines are much tighter. I played over 30 games last year, while only playing 14 this season. This season I think that Auburn will not be aws good as they were last season, so I faded them twice. I look for good seasons out of South Carolina and Mississippi. I also faded Texas A&M because of a terrible defense that has already lost two starters from last year's unit and many skill position players from the offense including Manziel. I tool N.C. State and two big pointspreads. +30 at home against Florida State where they are 3-1 S/U, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Raleigh, and +20 at North Carolina, where State is 2-2 S/U and 2-1-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Chapel Hill. I like Miami + 14 1/2 points at home against Florida State. Miami has an extra week to prepare for Florida State. I also think that the line could drop significantly if Miami is still in the ACC Coastal hunt.

[RiverBoatGambler]

This Auburn team will be just as good, if not better.


Agree with Ole Miss vs TAMU. TAMU will be vastly different from last year. I don't expect them to even get dd wins

[BigdaddyQH]

This Auburn team will be just as good, if not better.


Agree with Ole Miss vs TAMU. TAMU will be vastly different from last year. I don't expect them to even get dd wins

I totally agree with you when it comes to A&M. I would be shocked if they won more than 7 games. I see losses at South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, and at home to Ole Miss and LSU. A&M opened up at -11 vs Arkansas, and I did not touch that game. Let's see how good of a HC Sumlin is without Johnny Football.

The problem that Auburn is going to have is twofold. First, the schedule which ships them to Mississippi, Georgia, and Alabama all in November, plus home games against LSU and South Carolina. I see at least two losses to that grooup, and maybe more. More importantly, Auburn is not going to sneak up on anyone this season. They will do well to win 10 games this season.

[RiverBoatGambler]

I totally agree with you when it comes to A&M. I would be shocked if they won more than 7 games. I see losses at South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, and at home to Ole Miss and LSU. A&M opened up at -11 vs Arkansas, and I did not touch that game. Let's see how good of a HC Sumlin is without Johnny Football.

The problem that Auburn is going to have is twofold. First, the schedule which ships them to Mississippi, Georgia, and Alabama all in November, plus home games against LSU and South Carolina. I see at least two losses to that grooup, and maybe more. More importantly, Auburn is not going to sneak up on anyone this season. They will do well to win 10 games this season.

Auburn does have a tough schedule. I'm basing Auburn repeating last season's success is off what I've heard from people in the Auburn circle. They seem very, very confident.

One thing I can say about Auburn is their offense will be tweaked from last season. We won't see that same stuff as last year. Malzhan knows people have spent a lot of time working on stopping that offense. I guarantee you he hasn't been sitting on his thumbs all off-season/spring/summer.

And lastly, agree 100% about Ole Miss. Meant to say this earlier. I have a buddy that played safety for Ole Miss (Damien Jackson). He still has the inside with people in the program and Jones (co-dc) told him this would be the best Ole Miss team since 2009

[BigdaddyQH]

I am very high on Mississippi this season. If QB Wallace can show improvment over last years poor showing, Ole Miss is a team to be reconed with. They have a solid defense and get both Alabama and Auburn at home. The only tough away game is at LSU. Anything under 9 wins for this team has to be disappoiting. I played on them three times out of my 14 GOY picks.

[Slick Lizard]

I like Ole Miss this year myself but find that you have backed them in two tough spots. They are off the Bama game (should be very physical) the week before playing A&M and are in their 5th straight SEC game when playing Auburn. I do agree that the lines appear soft but not soft enough that I would consider backing them months in advance. Not criticizing by any means just find those to be tough situational spots. Many of the others are in good spots however. Best of luck.

[BigdaddyQH]

My Ole Miss GOY plays are -5 at Arkansas, +1 at A&M, and +7 at home vs Auburn. I also have them Over 7.5 wins -120.

[Slick Lizard]

My Ole Miss GOY plays are -5 at Arkansas, +1 at A&M, and +7 at home vs Auburn. I also have them Over 7.5 wins -120.

I do believe that you hit some soft lines which are harder to find this year. It is not that I disagree with the picks at all, simply pointing out the tough situations for the A&M and auburn games.

[BigdaddyQH]

I do believe that you hit some soft lines which are harder to find this year. It is not that I disagree with the picks at all, simply pointing out the tough situations for the A&M and auburn games.

Soft lines are harder to find because there are less lines than there were last season. The Nugget took a big hit on Northwestern, who they were very high on. They cut the number of games down to 200, from about 235 last season. They are also finding out that the "Sharps" are beating them at their own game now. The Nugget has to give attractive lines out to get people to wager in advance. If they did not, then people would simply wait until the week of the game to wager. Sharps know this, and come prepared with their own lines for many games.