Personally, played two MAC games this week and split them so I pretty much paid the juice. BG/Miami went over barely by two points and NIU/Toledo went over by half a point and I had the under...that's usually the way it goes in this business. Interesting to note that both Miami(OH) and Toledo were double digit home favorites and not only lost but lost badly. This is shaping up to be a very interesting week with a lot of big games.
NCAAF
I'll be focusing my attention on the Big Ten this week mainly but a few other games as well...some of this may sound familiar as I just copied and pasted from a previous thread I wrote in.
Indiana +13 (-110) @SIA Purdue is the better team but Indiana has played well at home and this is a rivalry game and if Indiana is going to get up for one game a year it will be this one. Purdue has looked strong the past two games at times but I think this one is tight all game long could be high scoring too. There already has been a lot of unnatural line movement in this game as the line has moved in a direction contrary to public percentages...this is a game that has sharp action all over it.
Iowa -4 (-102) @Pinnacle Iowa is very tough at home and has only lost like 1 game in the last three years and that was to Michigan in overtime. Iowa has a better defense than Minn by far and Marony status is still up in the air as well as one of their wide receivers....although I heard Marony might be playing but I see Iowa getting up big and taking Minn out of their game. This game may end up looking like the PSU game for Minn. I don't see Iowa losing at all. I think Iowa gets it done here on Senior day and these last two games of the season salvage what was thought to be a championship run season for the Hawkeyes.
Northwestern -14.5 (-102) @Pinnacle. This is very rare for me...in fact, I was examining my records this week and this is the most points I've laid all year in football. There really isn't too much to say here other than Illinois is very very bad and NW is a better than average team. With the exception of a few quarters in Big Ten play, Illinois has not been competitive and routinely out played on all levels. They've been blown out at home by MSU and PSU and NW boasts the best offense. NW defense is suspect for sure but they've shown they can play with anyone not named Ohio St. NW has been very competitive even in their loss to Michigan. I am just not seeing how NW doesn't put up 40 or 50+ against Illinois' defense here. I know it's a big number but go ahead and lay the chalk on this one fellows.
Baylor -2.5 over Oklahoma St: I'll step out of the Big Ten for a second here. Baylor has had a pretty solid year believe it or not. Very competitive in most of their games (c.f. Texas game of course) but have played well on the whole. Very winnable game for them on Senior Day (whatever that is worth in Waco)...OSU is coming off a pretty emotional win against #13 team in the land. Line has already dropped to -2 then went up again to -2.5 which is where it stays I think. l say Baylor wins by double digit here as OSU has made improvements this year but Baylor is the better teams.
Strong Leans:
Michigan +145 and rising. I like Michigan in this spot here as home underdogs. In fact this situation mirrors last year when Michigan went into Columbus as favorites and lost outright...I think we see the same exact thing here this year with these two teams. Should be a very close game throughout as so many of these OSU/UM games are...if you feel more comfortable take the points with Michigan at +3. I highly doubt the books will move off the +3 but if it gets to +3.5 go ahead and hammer it instead of the money line.
Army -8 over Arkansas St: I admit I don't know much about this game. I know that Army is much improved and Arkansas St still sucks but this is a game that some of my friends have been touting as a very strong play on Army. Normally I try to stick with games I know something about but may go out and play this one not sure yet but this one may reach 10 or 11 by game time so I'd grab it quick now and if anything a possible middling opportunity may present itself.
Leaning but still thinking
MSU +260. It's really hard to back MSU these days. It's pretty obvious that MSU has quit this year-sigh--I have a feeling they quit at halftime of the OSU game in Columbus this year. However, MSU is great in this spot as a home dog over the years (only NW is a better Big Ten home dog than MSU in the past 15 years). It may be a no play for me. I have very mixed feelings here. I'd much prefer PSU win the Big Ten as opposed to UM or OSU but MSU seems to play its most inspired football against high quality teams as they are 9-1 in their last 10 games against teams ranked in the top ten. There are too many good stats here not to play MSU. Play on Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN ST) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. (34-8 ATS over the last 10 seasons)...now compound that with MSU's 9-1 record against top 10 teams since '97 and you can be sure that a lot of sharps will be on MSU at +7.5 and at +260 money line.
Michigan State is the one I'm hesitating to play. I saw Penn St too often and they scare me. I might end up playing half a unit... but on the ML. Would hate to miss the boat.
Geez, BuddyBear, how could you forget to mention the fact that MSU has covered 13 straight home closers.
I'm with you on all of them except Michigan and Army, and I put them in Beat the Prick. I also didn't take NW, but think they are the right side.
This weekend, and this weekend only, I'm a huge MSU fan. That's because my true loyalty lay with Ohio State, and speaking of that it should be a close game, and it could go either way, but I took OSU -3. If OSU's offense hadn't become far more stable I would not have made the bet, but since Troy Smith was given the starter's job they have been much more consistent. I would say that losing the bet would allow me to loathe Michigan even more, but I don't think that is possible.
Adding Missouri +135.....opened as pk em now Missouri is underdog...this is a function of Snyder's announcement earlier this week he's retiring. Don't be fooled here...Missouri is the better team and have something to play for still
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