Originally Posted by
ackem19
Originally, I was leaning ECU. Reason being Houston has a terrible defense and they have struggled all year on the road. They are allowing 228 rushing yards per game on the road in addition to 250 passing yards per game. ECU has struggled against the pass, however they have proved they can run the ball which in turn means they can control the clock and keep Houston's offense off the field. Senior RB Dominique Lindsay has just under 1000 rushing yards on the year and is averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Lindsay should have a field day against the Cougar defense. All of that considered, I am now currently leaning towards Houston. Here are some trends to consider. Houston is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS when the spread is between +3 and -3. On the road they are 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS (the 3 ATS wins: Oklahoma St, Tulane, and Miss St.)(the 3 ATS losses: UTEP, Tulsa, and UCF). ECU is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS this season after 2 or more consecutive SU wins and 2-10 ATS over the last 3 seasons. ECU is 1-3 SU/ATS as an underdog this season. Also, ECU has allowed 300+ yards only twice this season. Once at WVU where they lost both SU and ATS. Then again at Memphis where they won both SU and ATS. After looking at the ECU schedule, it is apparent that they haven't faced a spread offense all season and they haven't played a great passing team. Last year was the first year that these two coaches met and the result, Houston won at ECU 41-24 and Houston put 399 Passing Yards and 222 Rushing Yards and Houston managed to hold ECU to 275 Total Yards. My Lean: Houston