[Jwiggles]

Sup guys! Tonight I got one lock. Tonight we got N. Illinois vs Toledo. N. Illinois sits on a ats overall record 7-3 and oddly and importantly 5-1 away. They average 44.8 points per game while letting up 24 away. They have an over/under record of 7-3 but more importantly 4-2 away. Now, on the other hand we have Toledo. Toledo is sitting on a overall 7-3 ats record but the key stat here is 4-1 home. They average 46 points per game home while giving up 28.4. Their over/under record is 4-6 but more importantly they are 4-1 at home ats o/u.

Through a statistical situation home/away I have a score N. Illinois 38.6 Toledo 35 with a combined total 73.6. Currently I have the line at -3 and 72.5. Tonight's game has a 73% chance to go over but N.iIllinois only has a 55% chance to cover. In addition, tonight's game from 8-midnight it will be 39 degrees with a 9 mph wind. It's going to be cold which the ball will be hard. Now, due to this fact N. Illinois kicker averages 60.1 a kick off with 26/86 as touch backs. The Toledo kicker averages 62.7 with 36/67 as touchbacks. You all know when the ball is solid means less yards. This being said it should and will affect the over. Instead if returns brought out on average to the 18-24 yard line tonight their will be less touch backs and my prediction is way better starting position near 28-35. The cold shouldn't affect the scoring cuz it's playing into both teams strong points the run. Look for Toledo star running back tonight switching in and out with their upcoming star freshman. I see points guys.

My pick tonight is the OVER 72.5 at a 73% chance. Gl guys lets keep it rolling.

[tennesseety]

Nice write-up, man. Thanks.

[ChrisInTheMist]

How can u have a lock on this but u weren't confident in buff yesterday

[Jwiggles]

Cuz I have a system. I don't take games under a 70% covering rate that also needs to adds up to my statistical situation number. If one is off I don't bet. Yesterday I had buffalo near 17 points and at a 67% covering rate. Check my history and you will understand how I bet. I was very very close to Vegas odds today but this stands out and I have and edge on it. I'm very picky with my games. If I lose I don't get mad cuz I know I went into the game favored. Your always gonna lose some, always.

[Jwiggles]

Plus I'm not telling you to lock it. I'm just stating that my bet is in, closed, hands clapped "dust off" ready to watch a good game.

[WorkHorse]

Seems like a "LOCK" should be 100%.

You may be right about an Over play because there certainly should be some ball movement by both teams tonight.

Each team move's the ball well over 400 ypg and both teams allow over 400 yards per game.

Total points the past five years: 2012 (55), 2011 (123), 2010 (95), 2009 (39), 2008 (45).

[9ersPride]

Lets cash them greens J..am with u on the over..48-42..lol

[BigdaddyQH]

usually, those who believe in "Locks" are losers. It will be interesting to see what happens. It would also be interesting to see exactly what your win percentage is, since you think so highly of yourself.

[jpot34]

usually, those who believe in "Locks" are losers. It will be interesting to see what happens. It would also be interesting to see exactly what your win percentage is, since you think so highly of yourself.

Hey Old man! What's your lean tonight? I use old man with all due respect! I know how long you've been in this business.

[Jwiggles]

Big daddy? I come across like that? Hmm no wonder people can't stand forums. First of all my definition of a "lock" again is me saying I already put my bet in. Let's clarify that again. I dont believe in 100% games. Ill choose my words better next time.

[9ersPride]

Its a "LOCK" wiggles..lol for us that is..called in my bet already.

[Smushmachine]

Your system predicts 73.8 and the total is 72.5.. 1.3 points off is worth 73%? And since obv there is no way for NIU to score 38.6 points, your predict score is 73 points. To me winning by .5 points is realllly thin value, not a 73% lock.

[Jdizzle315]

Jwiggs knows his shit I always roll w him

[tennesseety]

I've only been on here a short while, but it seems like you are damned if you just provide a prediction with no write-up and damned if you provide a prediction with a write-up. And you're arrogant either way. If you don't like a guy's system, prediction, etc., just click the next thread.

[Jwiggles]

73.8 is thee average. If both teams play an average game we still cover. They are at a combined total home/away over/under ats score of 8-3 which which gives is a 73% covering rate with these two teams in this particular situation. Again for the 3rd time my lock means I put my bet in which was 5 hours ago. I'm not saying trust me and bet it. Lock to me is bet is placed no turning back. Only way we lose is if both teams play under their average performance. Even if one lacks the other can carry. Don't focus on my situation statistical number and more on the %.

[Marshall Tito]

Does it worry you that 92% of the public agrees with you on the over? That's the current % showing at PG.

[Jwiggles]

Your exactly right Tennessee .... Last week 8-1-1 with 3-0 leans, this week 1-0 and wait till I lose one it will be like see your an idiot with your statistical predictions suck etc... And especially if ya lose 3 in a row but they don't understand how much 7-9% over 50 can be at the end.

[Jwiggles]

Marshall: valid point. I really try not to pay attention to that so I don't steer myself away from what gets me wins. For example the Baylor vs Tt game, that game had a fn crazy 90% covering ratio and it hit. The public was prolly all over that too.

[Smushmachine]

Ohhh, now I see where you got the number from.. You think all NIU away games and all Toledo home games are equal? You don't care that combined total home/away over/under ATS is 2-3 when the number is >60 and 0-1 when the number is >70?

And I doubt that will be the last time you have to explain that when you use the word "lock" you don't mean lock, you mean play or bet.

[okbyme123]

The Linemakers’ lean: Northern Illinois averages 44.6 points per game on the season, and Toledo is scoring at a 45.5 PPG clip over its last five. Four of those five Toledo games have gone OVER the total, and NIU is 7-3 to the OVER this year. We’re looking for a game in the 80s tonight, and are going OVER the 73.

[chalutes84]

Jwiggles Please dont let the negative comments here persuade you. your write-ups are still the most interesting reading on this whole site. You provide a great tool for people to use. keep the information coming .It is much appreciated

[PROBEST]

I QUIT GIVING OUT PIX , AND IT WAS LIKE 70% WINNERS BUT I FIGURED OUT THAT MOST OF THESE GUYS AND I SAY MOST NOT ALL SIT IN THERE 1 BEDROOM APT. LOOKING AT THE CLASSIFIEDS AND THEN GO TO THE SBR SITE.I WILL PASS ON THOSE TYPE OF PEOPLE CRITIQUING MY PLAYS YIIIIKES,I MEAN SERIOUSLY ,I HAVE THE WINNER TONITE AND IF U CALL 1-800-SPANKTHEMONKEY U DEGENERATES WILL GET WHAT U DESERVE,THE PRICE IS A SMALL FEE OF 25,000.00 FOR THE PLAY OF THE MELINIUM. I WILL GIVE THE SPECIAL FEW A HINT ITS 2 WORDS AND THE FIRST WORD IS BEND.

[9ersPride]

Money just keep doing your things..when u cashed and they dont u will know whose legit and whose not..people if u dont like his picks dont need to comment just move on to the next one..simple as that.I agreed with some of his picks and not some..but i wasnt negative bout it..yes i did followed moneys picks but not all. So far am 7-2 well make that 9-2 cus Money skipped last nights picks.

[thezamfamily]

Got any leans for the rest of the week in college FB

[Melda]

you meant to say lock to lose right? hhaha

[Killer_Demo]

NIU

[thezamfamily]

Still tailing you...don't mind these clowns....they wouldn't be running their traps if they tailed you on your last 10 picks...

[Jwiggles]

I'm straight man. It happens. Two teams playing really below average, nothing I can do about it. I really had high hopes in this one. Thought we be sitting at 40+ now. Hey you never know 27-27 ot? Lol

[WorkHorse]

Mr. J...I apologize if it sounded like I was attacking your pick...I wasn't.

I resent the term "LOCK" ever being used in a gaming event. Young college guys/stupid old guys who don't have a frecken CLUE bet their meal money/rent money on crap they read as a LOCK WINNER.

It's just not necessary for a betting forum....people get hurt!

[supercam1]

Mr. J...I apologize if it sounded like I was attacking your pick...I wasn't.

I resent the term "LOCK" ever being used in a gaming event. Young college guys/stupid old guys who don't have a frecken CLUE bet their meal money/rent money on crap they read as a LOCK WINNER.

It's just not necessary for a betting forum....people get hurt!

couldnt agree more with what you said.....let's just say I'm glad I found this forum at the age of 25 and not 20. Your not selling your picks, that term is just unnecessary for the forums.

[CDMKMP]

I'm straight man. It happens. Two teams playing really below average, nothing I can do about it. I really had high hopes in this one. Thought we be sitting at 40+ now. Hey you never know 27-27 ot? Lol

Did you account for one of the top NIU receiver's being out? Obviously you couldn't have known about the other one who got hurt after kickoff.

[Noleafclover]

Mr. J...I apologize if it sounded like I was attacking your pick...I wasn't.

I resent the term "LOCK" ever being used in a gaming event. Young college guys/stupid old guys who don't have a frecken CLUE bet their meal money/rent money on crap they read as a LOCK WINNER.

It's just not necessary for a betting forum....people get hurt!

I know people find this term offensive, but when I first got into betting I took it to mean, "I like this play substantially more than most of my plays." So that's what I mean when I say a "lock," and I take those for 2x my normal amount - not meal money by any means. In NFL, which is more my sport, I'm something like 14-8 on "locks" last 3 years, which I certainly can't say for normal plays, so some sort of distinction is justified.

Just seems like there's a lot of vagueness in the term that causes controversy though, it can be used different ways.