[Harry N. Lloyd]

Been on a roll with these college totals, boys. This season I've had 7 winning weeks, 1 losing week, and 2 pushes. Here are this week's plays....

BOISE/IDAHO - OVER 64

If this one were played in a warm weather site, they'd easily score into the 80s. The forecast in Boise is calling for light snow and temps in the 30s. No matter, it's the Smurf Turf and lots of crazy stuff tends to happen. Boise is averaging over 40 ppg and today they're under great pressure to put a whooping on their in-state rival. They're posted as a 31 point favorite and they're gonna do everything in their power to win by that and more. The Vandals have the 115th ranked pass efficiency defense in the country, allowing over 250 ypg through the air. They've given up 20 TDs against only 6 INTs. This secondary is gonna get torched in this one. Idaho's only saving grace is an offense that's been surprisingly effective, averaging over 30 ppg. This one is a shootout. Go north!

NORTH CAROLINA/MIAMI - OVER 43

Here we have a great offense against a great defense. Tough for me to say for certain which side will be able to get the upper hand on the other. But the oddsmakers have sided with the defense. This is a very low total in college action. Particularly when you have a Miami team that's been averaging over 400 ypg and 32 ppg. Last week they put up 52 against a reasonably good Virginia D. The Tar Heels defense is impressive, but this game ends up with about 50 or so.

ARKANSAS/TROY - UNDER 67

The Hogs are in an SEC sandwich. They had the big win against South Carolina last week and have Mississippi State on deck. All they want to do today is notch the 'W' and move on. Troy is a pretty good team and will be able to pass the ball here. But Arkansas is gonna grab a lead, then go to the ground game to keep the clock moving. My money says Arkansas, by about 38-20.

MISSISSIPPI STATE/ALABAMA - OVER 43

The Crimson Tide need to work on putting more points on the scoreboard. Today's game will be a perfect time to practice just that. Mississippi State has a pretty stout D, allowing only 25 ppg. Today though, the Bulldogs will lose the battle of field position all day. The Tide will take advantage of the short field and put up close to 40. This one goes over.

WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN - OVER 56

The Wolverines are in a freefall, particularly on defense. Two weeks in a row they have been torched in the second half of games. Teams go into halftime and make the easy adjustments neccesary to dominate. Today they have to bring their sputtering team into Camp Randall, where historically they've been successful. To be bowl eligible they must win either this one or next week against Ohio State. Expect a big effort today. Doesn't matter which young QB they use, they will score.....and they will allow Wisky to score as well. Lots of points here.

As always, best of luck.
Harry

2009 college totals (31-13)
2009 colllege sides (39-30)

[bypp]

Like em all Harry. Can't see NC/MIA staying under 50. GL

[blackbeSSt]

im lovin me some wake/fsu over 58

[capainter]

im lovin me some wake/fsu over 58

Thanks for the picks as always Harry.

blackbeSSt, careful, as you probably know Ponder is out for FSU. We have no idea what kind of QB play we're going to get from FSU side of the ball, especially since Ponder's fill-in is a duel threat type of QB (read: crappy passer).

Still, FSU's D is total garbage and they are an over machine. But Ponder had been having a monster year which was part of the reason that they were an over machine.

I love the WFU side in this one though.

[blackbeSSt]

blackbeSSt, careful, as you probably know Ponder is out for FSU.

oh snap i didn't know that. oh well. maybe wake can hit 40 for me!

[capainter]

oh snap i didn't know that. oh well. maybe wake can hit 40 for me!

If I had to pick a total, I'd take the over still. I just probably wouldn't play it until I saw what EJ Manuel had to offer. He was highly recruited and has a ton of talent but I'm sure is raw. FSU has a ton of speed on the offensive side of the ball so I think they'll still be able to score. Plus a talented but raw QB is good for overs because they'll inevitably turn it over in their own territory but also make some good plays. Just got to hope that he's not Jay Cuntler-ish and decide to turn it over after driving all the way down the field.

[50cent]

gl like the totals...

[Smails Kid]

Good stuff, Harry ... following you on 3 of the games ... good luck!

[capainter]

Another total I'm playing this week is Maryland-VT under 48. Maryland is without their QB and best running back who are both out of for the year. Neither of MD's backup QBs have any game experience. They are banged up on both sides of the ball, and I just don't see them scoring much. Maryland's D can be tough at times, but is banged up and nothing spectacular. However the VT offense fails to execute at times, and while Ryan Williams is an absolute stud, they just don't give him the ball enough.

The factor here that I absolutely love is that Beamer and Friedgen are close, close friends. Like, vacation together, god-fathers to each others kids friends. The only way this game goes over in my opinion is a VT blowout. However there's no way Beamer will embarrass Friedgen at home when he's already out of ACC contention and his job is already on the line.

Thoughts?

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Your reasoning makes perfect sense to me. Think I'll tail you on this one. Thanks.

[capainter]

Cool man, definitely improves my confidence, with you on Miami (love it) and Alabama which scares me even at the low number only because it's SEC, but I like your reasoning.

Good luck today.

[capainter]

Rout is on at Maryland... lets hope Beamer keeps it on the ground the rest of the way...

[Parligod]

Great picks today guys, I love this thread. Very new to College Football, but it's been a blast to watch. Keep it up and GL.
-Parli

[Ron-Russ]

too bad I saw this Thread late but you rock Harry!!!

[capainter]

Thanks for the points guys, but this is Harry's show. I was just asking for his advice because he's sharp as hell on these totals. And wow, Boise total should have been like 80. It was low enough to seem fishy to me, but I'm glad I cast aside my doubts and played it.

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Nice bit of handicapping yourself, Capainter. Your boy Beamer appears to have done exactly what you predicted. Well played.

[capainter]

Thanks man. To me, posting picks is one thing, but most here do so without an explanation, which doesn't really help out the rest of the board all that much. I know it takes some time and effort, but there's nothing better than following good cappers with thoughtful, well written reasoning behind their picks. I appreciate it.

[HoulihansTX]

Amazing day. Great totals also.

I'm on Arkansas/ Troy OVER, but that looks dead.

[GGPLAYER]

Amazing day. Great totals also.

I'm on Arkansas/ Troy OVER, but that looks dead.

Not yet...28 points and still a lot of ball game. Your the best Harry!!