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Houston @ Louisville
Cougars + 16 1/2 vs Cards @ Papa Johns 7pm est game on ESPNU.
This was one of the games I circled right away.
Louisville opened @ -17, slipped down to -16 and currently sitting at -16 1/2.
I had this game @ Louisville - 11 with my power rankings.
I don't do a lot of these and only like doing when I have a strong play. Nothing worse than being wrong at the top of your lungs. Tend to get a little wordy, but trying to provide as much info as I can, off my notes. Skim , read, tail or fade, the choice is yours.
Down to Biz,
I play a game looking for match-up edges, technicals or line value. I'm getting 5 1/2 points + value (-16 1/2) vs my PR of (11). That always catches my attention. Let me get this right, Louisville is laying 16 1/2 to a team that's 4-0 ATS when getting points under Coach Levine. Cougars are also an eye opening 8-1 ATS , YTD. A lot of people had little respect for Cougars, even up to mid season. They pointed out that the Cougs were often out-stated, lucky, along with every other excuse. Bottom line , Cougar backers just kept getting paid. On the other-hand, Cards have been over-valued. Louisville hasn't been kind to backers, going a roll busting 1-5 ATS as a Conference Home Fav laying over +8. Cardinal backers have failed to cash 4 out of last 5. They also have a horrible spread record against +750 teams (1-3-1 ATS). Cougs fit that roll nicely, coming in @ 7-2.
Now that some of the technicals are out of the way, lets consider the Cougs two losses. A tough loss @ home by 1 to BYU and another tough comeback loss to an excellent UCF squad, 19-14. UCF had their way most of the game, but the Cougars were live to win outright till the end. Drove down to the UCF 10 yard line in the closing seconds and WR Greenberry had one hit him in the hands in the end-zone, but couldn't hold on. UCF held out for the win.
It's interesting to me that Houston was +12 @ UCF, covered and almost won outright. Now a team that lost to UCF @ Home is laying 16 1/2 to Houston? Hmm.
Everybody knows Bridgewater.
Coug QB FR John O'Korn has done nothing but impress. He's a top 25 QB ranked @ #24. 63.1 completion % 2352 yds,and 23/6 TD/INT.
Bridgewater is ranked @ #10 71.4 % completion % 2845 yards 24/3 ratio. Bridgewater is a stud, but not a huge drop-off with O'Korn.
Louisville has a huge edge on D, with some great DE's and LB's. Louisville brings the #2 D to this game and Houston # 89. Part of the reason we see this big #. Foolish to compare team A-B, but hard to ignore that UCF hung 38 on Louisville @ Papa Johns, while the "soft" Cougar D held the mighty Knights to 19 @ their house.
Cougar secondary leads the nation in interceptions at 18. They throttled the Knights , holding them to 210 yards through the air and 2 TDS. I hate to use UCF again, but it is my opinion that the Knights are the only strong pass offense that the Cards have faced and it didn't end well.
Cougars can throw the ball, ranked #17. For those curious, Cards are #11.
Other concerns are a suddenly anemic Card rush attack. Uconn is a whipping dog and they held the Cardinal Rush attack to 81 yards. Louisville has been getting a ton of silly flags lately. Over 200+ yards last two games. Penalties kill drives and extend opponent possessions.
Bottom line I think this is to many points. Cougars are a live dog here. Cards seem to have lost a bit of fire after their season was blemished by the Knights. It's being said that the Cougars are excited for this match-up and should come to play hard.
I bet Houston + 17 on the opening line. It just went back to + 16 1/2 and I bet it again. Some might snicker, but I sprinkled a little on the money line with Houston + 515. Don't get greedy. If you like what I said, take the points. If I'm way off base, lay the 16 1/2.
GL with your play.
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Originally Posted by Tboonepickem
