1. 11-12-13 12:39 PM #1
    stevenash
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    Buffalo +4.5 over Toledo

    Taking the points here in an even up contest, even though game is Toledo, Buffalo is about 3 better than Toledo on a neutral turf, slide the Rocket a FG for being at home, this game should be a pick, I'm getting 4.5

    Both teams run the ball well, not much of a pass attack on either side.
    Buffalo's defense is better, and there's the difference.

    Not to mention Buffalo is a freaking ATM, they are a covering machine.
    Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five in the conference and 6-0 ATS overall in their last six.

    Riding the Bulls here with their balanced run and stingy defense.

    One caveat fellas, this is the MAC on a weeknight, do I really need to remind you that, ummm, how do I put this, let's just say things happen in the MAC on ESPN games on a weeknight that make you go 'hmmmmmmmmm'
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  2. 11-12-13 01:52 PM #2
    jjgold
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    Nashy great write up

    I'm going to tell you here and best of luck
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  3. 11-12-13 02:30 PM #3
    Ratpack
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    the bulls win STRAIGHT up
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  4. 11-12-13 02:31 PM #4
    JakeLc
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    Toledo star RB is expected to play
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  5. 11-12-13 02:37 PM #5
    Omaga
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    even match up but 58% consensus on Buffalo but yet the line moves in opposite direction
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  6. 11-12-13 02:46 PM #6
    Eric22174
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    Buffalo's RB Stats since coming off injury.

    9/28 Connecticut W 41-12 23 90 3.9 21 1 2 20 10.0 14 0
    10/5 Eastern Michigan W 42-14 25 150 6.0 60 2 3 32 10.7 13 0
    10/12 @Western Michigan W 33-0 19 128 6.7 27 0 2 14 7.0 9 0
    10/19 Massachusetts W 32-3 43 216 5.0 21 1 0 0 0.0 0 0
    10/26 @Kent State W 41-21 31 185 6.0 38 4 2 14 7.0 9 0
    11/5 Ohio W 30-3 34 249 7.3 33 2 3 19 6.3 11 0


    Toledo gave up 415 yards on the ground to Navy. Now by no means am I comparing Buffalo's running offense to Navy…..BUT they run the ball an average of 45-50 times a game. This could really open up the pass for Buffalo. Buffalo is catching stride at the right time. This defense is playing stout. These games aren't against great opponents but they did play Ohio State well the first game of the season.
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  7. 11-12-13 03:21 PM #7
    innovation
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    What we have here is two teams that play great at home.

    While on paper I have Buffalo as -1 here.....I cannot help but think that Toledo at home isn't the right side because they average 7.4 yards per rush and have a +22.3 home point differntial.

    Buffalo on the road is -6 run differantial and is allowing an average of 32.8 points per game and they allow 4.7 yards per rush on the road as well.

    Books doing the classic mind fukk tonight.

    call me crazy but I actually think Ohio has the best chance of a SU dog tonight. They looked awful last week against Buffalo....its a new week.
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  8. 11-12-13 03:22 PM #8
    Cuse0323
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    heads or tails

    GL
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  9. 11-12-13 03:40 PM #9
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by innovation View Post
    What we have here is two teams that play great at home.

    While on paper I have Buffalo as -1 here.....I cannot help but think that Toledo at home isn't the right side because they average 7.4 yards per rush and have a +22.3 home point differntial.

    Buffalo on the road is -6 run differantial and is allowing an average of 32.8 points per game and they allow 4.7 yards per rush on the road as well.

    Books doing the classic mind fukk tonight.

    call me crazy but I actually think Ohio has the best chance of a SU dog tonight. They looked awful last week against Buffalo....its a new week.
    You mean Toledo, I have similar brain farts from time to time, I can relate.

    Nobody (at least me) is saying Buff will steam roll Toledo, my point is I love getting 4.5 in what I perceive to be a pick 'em tilt.
    The same way I love getting +140 in a pick 'em baseball game.

    Hate to throw around the 'v' word, but there is value (in my eyes) in 4.5

    And I am seeing the 4.5 train left the station in some shops
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  10. 11-12-13 03:56 PM #10
    innovation
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    value is there I agree..... I just think its intentional by books.

    GL nasher always appreciate your threads and insight.
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  11. 11-12-13 03:57 PM #11
    firedawg
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    I like over
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  12. 11-12-13 04:03 PM #12
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by firedawg View Post
    I like over
    Like over as well, don't love over, kinda like over.
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  13. 11-12-13 04:09 PM #13
    Pivotpoint
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    I got Buffalo + 3 1/2 . Wish I would have waited. + 5 1/2 now.

    Looks like Fluellin is playing. Guy has bum ankle and we'll see if he makes it through the game against a real tough Buffalo D.

    I like this HB Branden Oliver for Buffs. He's 100 % and @ 1123 yards,11td, 5.2 ypc.

    Love Buffalo Linebacker Khalil Mack. Guy is a monster and will play on Sundays. Big hitter and QB hunter, 7.5 sacks, 3 picks and has two Td.

    Toledo is a stronger team at home and Buffs weaker on the road. Buffs seem to be clicking and I'll take my chances with the stronger defense and the points. gl
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  14. 11-12-13 04:50 PM #14
    Hot Jerry
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    BUFALO is the right play in here !!
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  15. 11-12-13 05:04 PM #15
    thunderous
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    +6 now
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  16. 11-12-13 05:12 PM #16
    t-wizzle
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    Why isn't Buffalo +2.5?
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  17. 11-12-13 05:36 PM #17
    nvrlose37
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    Yea someone please tell me why Toledo is getting pushed up to -5.5 when Buffalo looks the part of the better team? Is it home field? Because I don't think Toledo has so much of an advantage here in that regard. Only thing they have to their name is a good win vs BG.
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  18. 11-12-13 05:40 PM #18
    JakeLc
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    Quote Originally Posted by nvrlose37 View Post
    Yea someone please tell me why Toledo is getting pushed up to -5.5 when Buffalo looks the part of the better team? Is it home field? Because I don't think Toledo has so much of an advantage here in that regard. Only thing they have to their name is a good win vs BG.
    I posted earlier in this thread the star RB is expected to play
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  19. 11-12-13 05:51 PM #19
    pulledclear
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    Tread careful ladys they are begging you to take Buffalo! R U N
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  20. 11-12-13 05:57 PM #20
    fecgp40
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    Line movement makes me nervous. Buffalo up to + 6 now at 5 dimes. Who is this RB for Toledo? Their version of Michael Jordan????
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  21. 11-12-13 06:01 PM #21
    Mike Huntertz
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    Buffalo’s two defeats this season came against #3 Ohio State and #5 Baylor.
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  22. 11-12-13 06:04 PM #22
    Ferndog68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omaga View Post
    even match up but 58% consensus on Buffalo but yet the line moves in opposite direction
    was thinking the same thing
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  23. 11-12-13 06:05 PM #23
    Ferndog68
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    Quote Originally Posted by fecgp40 View Post
    Line movement makes me nervous. Buffalo up to + 6 now at 5 dimes. Who is this RB for Toledo? Their version of Michael Jordan????
    lol
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  24. 11-12-13 06:05 PM #24
    nofear1227
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    Taking Buffalo also. Good luck man
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  25. 11-12-13 06:07 PM #25
    fecgp40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Huntertz View Post
    Buffalo’s two defeats this season came against #3 Ohio State and #5 Baylor.
    Absolutely true... Still trying to decide on this game, but leaning Buffalo. One more thing to consider... Buffalo also took 5 OT's to beat Stony Brook.
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  26. 11-12-13 06:07 PM #26
    HOTrudd86
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    i like it
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  27. 11-12-13 06:07 PM #27
    pavyracer
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    Buffalo is horrible on the road. Toledo is hard to beat at home. I would lay the points with Toledo here.
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  28. 11-12-13 06:10 PM #28
    stevenash
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    I have said this numerous times.

    If you like a side, bet the side.
    If you like the total, bet the total.

    Don't let line movement, reverse line movement, line movement after your little puppy dog dumps a deuce get you off your play.

    If you like a side, bet the side.
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  29. 11-12-13 06:11 PM #29
    fecgp40
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Buffalo is horrible on the road. Toledo is hard to beat at home. I would lay the points with Toledo here.
    Buffalo's only road games (excluding the first two blowouts) were against Kent St. and Western Michigan. Granted two teams that stink, but they won both games handily.
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  30. 11-12-13 06:14 PM #30
    KyTn
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    I had to take +6. I had the game -1. That's a 7 point swing.
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  31. 11-12-13 06:19 PM #31
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Buffalo is horrible on the road. Toledo is hard to beat at home. I would lay the points with Toledo here.
    Dude


    They lost to Ohio State and Baylor on the road, they won their conference games on the road.
    Horrible on the road? Yeah, if your only losses on the road were to two BCS bowl top five programs, then I guess that's terrible
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  32. 11-12-13 06:21 PM #32
    fecgp40
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    Exactly!!

    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Dude


    They lost to Ohio State and Baylor on the road, they won their conference games on the road.
    Horrible on the road? Yeah, if your only losses on the road were to two BCS bowl top five programs, then I guess that's terrible
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  33. 11-12-13 06:22 PM #33
    Vinnie Paz
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    Phil steele has toledo. We'll see what happens here. I passed personally but bol to yall, hope none of the good guys on here get MAC'd tonight
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  34. 11-12-13 06:22 PM #34
    greypimps
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    Toledo Is pathetic.. no defense team
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  35. 11-12-13 06:24 PM #35
    fecgp40
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    I realize that tout is having a good year... but his play of the weekend a few weeks ago was Nebraska over Minny.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vinnie Paz View Post
    Phil steele has toledo. We'll see what happens here. I passed personally but bol to yall, hope none of the good guys on here get MAC'd tonight
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