Ohio State ranks VERY poorly when talking about yards allowed through the air. Personally, I think that stat is overblown. Of course your pass defense will rank very poorly when you outscore teams by 170 points in the 1st quarter and your rush defense is extremely stout. What else are teams supposed to do besides pass in those situations?
The stat that is often overlooked is Ohio State's scoring defense. They give up very few points despite a disproportionate amount of passing yards allowed.
Ohio State has problems against a spread type of offense and duel threat QBs. MSU doesn't have either, so I struggling to find a scenario where they can keep pace with Ohio State's offense. They rely completely on defense. I'm not comfortable betting on a team with a great defense and sub par offense vs a team that averages 48 points per game.
There's a much greater chance of OSU running away with this game than there is of MSU covering, forget about winning. MSU just doesn't run the style of offense that is going to keep Urban awake at night.