1. 10-22-13 01:53 PM #1
    usma1992
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    NFL system slaying it hopefully college will follow soon...Here are the picks

    Time Visitor Home Sprd VEGAS Proj Bet
    8:00 PM LaLafayette 0 ArkansasState 0 2 68.0 56.7 U
    7:30 PM Kentucky 0 MississippiState 0 -10 56.5 64.1 O
    7:30 PM Marshall 0 MTSU 0 8.5 56.5 50.0 U
    8:00 PM BoiseState 0 BYU 0 -7 62.5 47.0 NB
    12:00 PM Connecticut 0 UCF 0 -22.5 53.0 58.8 O
    12:00 PM BallState 0 Akron 0 10.5 57.0 61.2 NB
    12:00 PM Houston 0 Rutgers 0 -7 62.0 86.5 O
    12:00 PM WakeForest 0 Miami 0 -23 54.0 45.1 U
    12:00 PM Northwestern 0 Iowa 0 -4 53.0 47.0 U
    12:00 PM OklahomaState 0 IowaState 0 12.5 56.5 49.5 U
    12:00 PM Nebraska 0 Minnesota 0 10.5 52.0 61.0 O
    12:00 PM Louisville 0 USF 0 20 46.5 41.9 NB
    12:20 PM Vanderbilt 0 TexasAM 0 -18 70.5 41.0 U
    12:30 PM GeorgiaTech 0 Virginia 0 10 48.0 53.3 O
    1:00 PM Pitt 0 Navy 0 6 51.0 52.6 NB
    2:00 PM MiamiOhio 0 Ohio 0 -24.5 50.5 53.5 NB
    2:30 PM Toledo 0 BowlingGreen 0 -3.5 56.0 44.0 U
    3:00 PM WesternMichigan 0 Massachusetts 0 -3 46.5 42.5 NB
    3:00 PM Temple 0 SMU 0 -11 60.5 62.9 NB
    3:30 PM Buffalo 0 KentState 0 2 50.5 64.7 O
    3:30 PM BostonCollege 0 UNC 0 -7 57.5 61.4 NB
    3:30 PM Clemson 0 Maryland 0 14 60.5 60.5 NB
    3:30 PM Duke 0 VirginiaTech 0 -13 47.5 41.3 U
    3:30 PM EasternMichigan 0 NorthernIllinois 0 -30 67.0 61.1 U
    3:30 PM Tennessee 0 Alabama 0 -28 52.0 33.8 U
    3:30 PM Tulsa 0 Tulane 0 3.5 48.5 47.0 NB
    3:30 PM MichiganState 0 Illinois 0 10.5 50.0 42.1 U
    3:30 PM NCState 0 FloridaState 0 -31.5 58.0 37.6 U
    3:30 PM TexasTech 0 Oklahoma 0 -7 59.0 55.0 NB
    3:30 PM UTEP 0 Rice 0 -17.5 58.0 52.7 U
    3:45 PM WestVirginia 0 KansasState 0 -10.5 53.0 55.5 NB
    4:00 PM Utah 0 USC 0 -7 54.0 52.0 NB
    4:00 PM Troy 0 WesternKentucky 0 -10 61.0 56.6 NB
    5:00 PM UAB 0 TexasSanAntonio 0 -6.5 59.5 60.9 NB
    5:00 PM NotreDame 0 AirForce 0 20 56.0 64.5 O
    6:00 PM UNLV 0 Nevada 0 -6.5 67.0 62.5 NB
    6:00 PM LouisianaTech 0 FloridaInt 0 5 49.0 55.0 O
    7:00 PM UCLA 0 Oregon 0 -23 70.5 75.4 NB
    7:00 PM Wyoming 0 SanJoseState 0 -7 71.0 67.1 NB
    7:00 PM GeorgiaState 0 LouisianaMonroe 0 -12 51.0 53.5 NB
    7:00 PM SouthAlabama 0 TexasState 0 2 52.0 45.0 U
    7:00 PM NorthTexas 0 SouthernMiss 0 10.5 49.5 47.4 NB
    7:00 PM SouthCarolina 0 Missouri 0 -2.5 52.5 45.6 U
    7:00 PM Baylor 0 Kansas 0 34.5 66.0 48.9 U
    7:30 PM FloridaAtlantic 0 Auburn 0 -24 51.0 47.0 NB
    7:30 PM Texas 0 TCU 0 -2 51.5 47.1 NB
    7:30 PM Idaho 0 OleMiss 0 -41 60.5 73.9 O
    8:00 PM Arizona 0 Colorado 0 14.5 58.0 62.0 NB
    8:00 PM PennState 0 OhioState 0 -14.5 56.5 47.5 U
    10:30 PM Stanford 0 OregonState 0 4 55.5 81.0 O
    10:30 PM FresnoState 0 SanDiegoState 0 9.5 61.5 66.5 NB
    11:00 PM California 0 Washington 0 -24.5 64.0 55.3 NB
    12:00 AM ColoradoState 0 Hawaii 0 5 56.5 51.7 NB
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  2. 10-22-13 03:26 PM #2
    Scratch 23
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    Texas a.m/Vandy with almost a 30 pt difference in your system. Does that warrant a big play??
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  3. 10-22-13 03:30 PM #3
    letsgo
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    Something has to be wrong with that total, 41 seems awfully low.
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  4. 10-22-13 03:35 PM #4
    JabooFootball
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    27 points off in FSU Nc St also even though FSU avg 52 ppg this season (25 more than models combined total) and NC State just gave up 360 rush yards to an inferior run offense in syracuse.

    I appreciate you developing posting the model, but I would reccomend tweaking it for ncaa because it seems its out of balance. perhaps if something is a 30% lower or higher than the total it represents a statistical aberration and should also be considered a NB? Not questioning your model, just trying to help you get better results.
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  5. 10-22-13 06:44 PM #5
    usma1992
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    I will always continue to tweak and develop... but I heard the same argument about the Miami UNC game last week. Miami averaged 45 points and my total was 51. It came in at 50 points. Again thank you for the feedback. I personally love the Houston Rutgers over... My college system has only worked one week out of 4 so far. I have made some adjustments to counter ... and I will continue to do so. I will be interested to see the games every one has looked at. This is the feedback I really need. My guess is the Texas A&M game is off, but I think the bet might be right... we shall see. Dave
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  6. 10-22-13 09:00 PM #6
    wacked
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    The A&M Game is way off. Vanderbilt's defense isn't that good and we know A&M doesn't play defense.
    It will be 60-75. A&M will probably put up 40 by themselves as their lowest TT of the year was 41.

    Also, you should probably post a link to your prior NFL posts for previous weeks, especially since you stated your NCAA is in beta and hasn't done good at all.
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  7. 10-22-13 10:29 PM #7
    usma1992
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    NFL Picks are posted...

    I have nothing to hide...
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  8. 10-22-13 11:55 PM #8
    punkbhstl
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    I just checked your NFL totals... Nice work! When will you be posting NFL totals?
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  9. 10-23-13 12:02 AM #9
    JabooFootball
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    Keep in mind about that Miami game that Miamis two top scorers went out.
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  10. 10-23-13 03:10 AM #10
    bobbydrake
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    Good start to this week. The ark st game was a nice win for the under. Hope to win a few more this week.

    Keep up the good work.
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  11. 10-23-13 11:03 AM #11
    Bucky buck
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    Quote Originally Posted by punkbhstl View Post
    I just checked your NFL totals... Nice work! When will you be posting NFL totals?
    x2, as i would like to subscribe and follow as well
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  12. 10-23-13 11:43 AM #12
    BigdaddyQH
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    Ditto.
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  13. 10-23-13 05:29 PM #13
    bobbydrake
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    usma1992's 2013 NFL o/u prediction model thread
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-bettin...l#post20002766
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  14. 10-24-13 06:40 AM #14
    blumpkin
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    can you post the team breakdown for points if and when you get a chance?
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  15. 10-24-13 12:07 PM #15
    usma1992
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    Break down but I don't bet the spread...

    8:25 PM CAROLINA v TAMPA BAY 6.0 40.0 12.4 16.1 28.5
    1:00 PM SAN FRANCISCO v JACKSONVILLE 16.5 40.5 30.4 35.9 66.2
    1:00 PM DALLAS v DETROIT -3.0 51.0 35.4 35.4 70.8
    1:00 PM NY GIANTS v PHILADELPHIA -6.0 52.5 20.7 25.8 46.5
    1:00 PM CLEVELAND v KANSAS CITY -7.5 39.5 23.0 18.6 41.6
    1:00 PM BUFFALO v NEW ORLEANS -12.0 49.0 20.7 32.2 52.9
    1:00 PM MIAMI v NEW ENGLAND -7.0 45.0 26.9 20.7 47.6
    4:05 PM NY JETS v CINCINNATI -6.5 41.0 22.8 22.8 45.5
    4:05 PM PITTSBURGH v OAKLAND 1.5 40.5 20.2 17.7 38.0
    4:25 PM WASHINGTON v DENVER -13.0 58.0 32.9 32.9 65.8
    4:25 PM ATLANTA v ARIZONA -2.5 44.5 30.6 27.8 58.4
    8:30 PM GREEN BAY v MINNESOTA 10.0 46.5 22.8 23.0 45.8
    8:40 PM SEATTLE v ST LOUIS 11.0 42.0 25.3 27.6 52.9
    12:00 AM #N/A v #N/A 0.0 0.0 #N/A #N/A #N/A
    12:00 AM #N/A v #N/A 0.0 0.0 #N/A #N/A #N/A
    12:00 AM #N/A v #N/A 0.0 0.0 #N/A #N/A #N/A
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  16. 10-24-13 12:09 PM #16
    usma1992
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    No need to subscribe... I am doing this for my personal use...

    thank you for the feedback. Hopefully, NFL continues... Worked hard on college football this past week again. Enjoy Dave
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  17. 10-24-13 12:29 PM #17
    KiDBaZkiT
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    System smyshtem, your gonna get buried. Vegas got a system you couldn't even mentally conceive.
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  18. 10-24-13 12:45 PM #18
    usma1992
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    LOL...Vegas does have a systemt no doubt...

    I saw there system work Tuesday night on college football where they projected 68 points and the teams scored 30. I think people believe Vegas is better than they really are. First of all, Vegas has to abide by many rules that we don't. They have to create a line for every game and they have to appeal to the betting public. So they aren't just creating lines they are creating lines to appeal to both sides. I don't use points scored or points against in my calculations. Vegas has to because that is what the betting public will look at. I think those statistics are the most misleading in football... specifically college football. But Vegas has to use them... I don't...With all that being said you are probably right. I am on a two year...actually upgraded now 1 year old laptop sitting at my kitchen table trying to beat THE MAN. And without a doubt the THE MAN won the first several rounds... I will say this year... I am ahead of THE MAN if ever so slightly. Will this continue no idea...
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  19. 10-24-13 01:10 PM #19
    tien2262
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    So under is the play tonight? Nfl
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  20. 10-24-13 01:16 PM #20
    tien2262
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    Also do u like o/u enough to play. College football tonight?

    Thanks
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  21. 10-25-13 11:48 AM #21
    wolvesguy89
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    How confident are you in Houston/Rutgers over? Your system has it going over by quite a bit.
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  22. 10-26-13 04:43 AM #22
    usma1992
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    I personally love the Houston Rutgers over...

    not just based on the model. I try to keep my opinions to myself regarding picks and let the computer generate the picks. That is the only way I can get the model where it needs to be...Dave
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  23. 10-26-13 07:05 AM #23
    Microbetter
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    Quote Originally Posted by wolvesguy89 View Post
    How confident are you in Houston/Rutgers over? Your system has it going over by quite a bit.
    That game will be a shoot out. Who ever has the ball last wins. Take Houston/over.
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  24. 10-26-13 02:12 PM #24
    Microbetter
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    Quote Originally Posted by Microbetter View Post
    That game will be a shoot out. Who ever has the ball last wins. Take Houston/over.
    Cash it!
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  25. 10-26-13 02:48 PM #25
    bobbydrake
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    So far, its been looking good.

    This week up until the 12pm games on Saturday the record is 6-3

    See how it goes the rest of the day.
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  26. 10-26-13 04:01 PM #26
    KyTn
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    Looking great. Add another line where you can put W or L... please.
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