1. 10-22-13 12:04 PM #1
    McDabs
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    How to hedge my FSU +1200 BCS Future

    Alright boys I have my Noles winning the Natty Title for 4800...

    I need some advice/opinions on some possible hedging.

    To start things off I am 100% positive FSU wins out and want that to play into the decision.

    We will rip UM to shreds, guessing a 30pt + win.. UF is always our toughest game but I just don't see them being able to score enough pts to stay with us.

    The obv unknown is will winning out even be enough to hold the 2 spot.

    Should I make a play on Oregon now at +350?

    Almost feel like my best bet would be to just hold out and see who the final 2 are.

    Any feedback is appreciated.

    ps - Ill be throwing it all on Crosby to hoist the cup this year with any winnings LOL.
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  2. 10-22-13 12:06 PM #2
    theprofessor71
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    I have a future on Oregon and am thinking of hedging it with FSU...and I'm a Bama fan!
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  3. 10-22-13 12:13 PM #3
    JabooFootball
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    Cheers mcdabs, fellow nole here. Beyond placing a bet on oregon futures I cant think of another effective way to hedge. The beauty of the oregon bet is theres a chance Bama loses (to Auburn or the SEC champ game) and you have both your teams in the championship. At the same time Oregon and FSU could lose and then... yeah y'know. FSU's toughest part of its schedule will be behind it after the miami game. Florida might not even be ranked or have a winning record, although I certainly hope they are and do because we need all the SoS bumps we can get.
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  4. 10-22-13 01:19 PM #4
    Noles1992
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    yeah Oregon and that is bound to go down once they clean UCLA and Stanford's clock. I guess Bama's odds are too low to even mess with?
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  5. 10-22-13 01:36 PM #5
    15805
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    September 12th I took Fla. State at 20 to1 +2000. 20 to win 400

    So: 5d has Fla. ST at +335 now and Fla State (not to win) -505

    If I wenr with the not to win now I'd pay 253 to win 50

    In that case I'd win 147 if Fla State & 30 if they didn't

    I think I'll wait a week or 2, could be a mistake but I do think Alabama or Oregon could lose one & Florida State has the best chance to go undefeated. I will hedge though at the first loss of Ala or oregon at that time I'll scalp because I'll get way better odds to win on both sides.
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  6. 10-22-13 02:31 PM #6
    nvrlose37
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    Hard to pull off but if someone you know is interested in them, sell it to them at +400 odds. So they can pay around $1200 to you.

    Not logistical but is an option to guarantee money.
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  7. 10-23-13 12:01 PM #7
    McDabs
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    Would it be crazy to turn this into more of a risky hedge?

    Basically avoiding Oregon and Bama and throwing 200 on Ohio St +700 and 200 on Mizzu +2800?

    Would be epic, but Oregon and Bama could maybe both go down.

    Odds are that the initial 1 and 2 don't play for the title.. but what about both falling short?

    Bama has 3 potential games to lose as does Oregon.

    Ohio St should go undefeated and Mizzu's sched isn't that tough either..

    Then again if its another Oregon/Bama Title game I'm out 8 before the game even starts LOL.

    Is the potential reward worth risking the "obvious" title prediction....
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  8. 10-23-13 12:16 PM #8
    BigdaddyQH
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    This is obviously a homers post. I will take Miami and 30 for any amount of money, points, or anything else you want to put on it. Alabama would easily defeat Florida State, so all of that is a mute point. Oregon has an advantage because they play UCLA, Stanford, and Oregon State, while Florida State has only Miami left on what was a rather easy schedule going in. The ONLY way for Florida State to get into the Big game is to hae Va. Tech defeat Miami and go to the ACC Championship game with one loss. That would be to Alabama. Then, Florida State would have to win that game, and by a margin greater than 25 points. Oregon is going to play a 2 or more loss team in their CC game. If it is UCLA, that is even worse, because they will have already defeated them once. Right now, it looks like Florida State gets stuck in the Orange Bowl, perhaps against UCF, in the all Florida Orange Bowl. That gets the fans in the stadium, but no one watcches it on TV. Fortunately next year, we ddo not have this problem.
    Nomination(s):
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  9. 10-23-13 12:27 PM #9
    JabooFootball
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    This is obviously a homers post. I will take Miami and 30 for any amount of money, points, or anything else you want to put on it. Alabama would easily defeat Florida State, so all of that is a mute point. Oregon has an advantage because they play UCLA, Stanford, and Oregon State, while Florida State has only Miami left on what was a rather easy schedule going in. The ONLY way for Florida State to get into the Big game is to hae Va. Tech defeat Miami and go to the ACC Championship game with one loss. That would be to Alabama. Then, Florida State would have to win that game, and by a margin greater than 25 points. Oregon is going to play a 2 or more loss team in their CC game. If it is UCLA, that is even worse, because they will have already defeated them once. Right now, it looks like Florida State gets stuck in the Orange Bowl, perhaps against UCF, in the all Florida Orange Bowl. That gets the fans in the stadium, but no one watcches it on TV. Fortunately next year, we ddo not have this problem.
    because alabama just just doesn't lose games late in the season...

    i love the dismissal of the fact that both Alabama and Oregon's toughest parts of their schedule are ahead of them. Obviously you acknowledged it but you seem to dismiss the fact they can lose. Alabama will have the iron bowl in the most hostile environment they've seen all season and an auburn team getting better week by week then most likely Mizzou. Oregon has played one team with a winning record all year and now they will play 5.

    There is a reason that so few teams are undefeated at the end of the college football season- keeping 19-22 year olds focused through a myriad of distractions and injuries (both of which go greater as the season drags on) is penetrating difficult man.

    Of the top 3 Florida State has the easiest path to being undefeated. I'm not saying it will be easy, I'm saying it will be easier than the other two programs in conversation right now.
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  10. 10-23-13 12:29 PM #10
    JabooFootball
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    "Alabama would easily defeat Florida state"

    please name the mismatches.
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  11. 10-23-13 12:32 PM #11
    McDabs
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    I appreciate your post and opinion about FSU getting into the title game.. that's why I made this thread.

    On another note.. I will take FSU-29.5 for all of your pts lol (like anyone cares about them)..

    How many would you like me to put up for this adjusted line?

    If you will by some chance be going to the game we can discuss possible items to throw down.

    I have a sweet pair of roller blades with your name on em..!
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  12. 10-23-13 12:33 PM #12
    JabooFootball
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    I will be at the FSU/UM game. Going to be quite the festivities.
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  13. 10-23-13 12:33 PM #13
    McDabs
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    Cheers JaBoo
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  14. 10-23-13 12:36 PM #14
    McDabs
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    No that is the line I will be taking against the fine fellow above us BugDaddy for all of his points.
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  15. 10-23-13 12:39 PM #15
    Vegas39
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    Long time no see mcdab. Gl with it
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  16. 10-23-13 12:43 PM #16
    McDabs
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    Appreciate it Vegas... how's the pucks going this year?

    What's your thoughts on Oregon winning out?
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  17. 10-23-13 12:45 PM #17
    Vegas39
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    Quote Originally Posted by McDabs View Post
    Appreciate it Vegas... how's the pucks going this year?

    What's your thoughts on Oregon winning out?

    Havent bet bet much pucks to start.

    like the chances of winning out of course the game at Stanford is the key.
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  18. 10-23-13 01:49 PM #18
    bama11braves
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    "Alabama would easily defeat Florida state"

    please name the mismatches.



    um here ill end all discussions right here on mismatches.


    Saban with 5 weeks to prepare ='s game over VS> Everyone else in college football

    how you like that?

    No need to respond because thats the only answer that matters.

    I am not sure if Bama gets in the title game as I believe they will have trouble with LSU and Auburn but if they do get to Pasadena the game will not be close. Bama will gash FSU by pounding the ball down there throat. FSU has ZERO running game and if you are one dimensional against them its over. Regardless how good Jaboo is the kid is phenomenal, Saban with 5 weeks to prepare isnt even fair.
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  19. 10-23-13 01:54 PM #19
    JabooFootball
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    Coaches coach buddy. Keep in mind that Winston practices against the same defensive scheme on a daily basis, and that Alabama hasnt played as balanced of a receiving core all year (and wont all year). The crazy thing to me is how much this FSU team reminds me of 09 Bama at WR and RB.

    Another fun stat- Winston has highest completion pct against a pass rush in the NCAA dating back 4 seasons.
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  20. 10-23-13 01:55 PM #20
    JabooFootball
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    I hope the game is FSU vs Bama but I think its going to be FSU or Bama vs Oregon.
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  21. 10-23-13 03:54 PM #21
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by theprofessor71 View Post
    I have a future on Oregon and am thinking of hedging it with FSU...and I'm a Bama fan!
    Florida will beat FSU.
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  22. 10-23-13 03:54 PM #22
    Big Bear
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    Bama will lose the SEC championship game
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  23. 10-23-13 04:07 PM #23
    JabooFootball
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Florida will beat FSU.
    Have you watched a florida game (or FSU game for that matter) recently?
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  24. 10-23-13 04:09 PM #24
    letsgo
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Bama will lose the SEC championship game
    You probably thought that last year too.
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  25. 10-23-13 04:09 PM #25
    Vegas39
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    Quote Originally Posted by JabooFootball View Post
    Have you watched a florida game (or FSU game for that matter) recently?
    most are of the opinion bear doesn't even own a tv.


    Plus he think Buckeyes will be in title game
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  26. 10-23-13 04:56 PM #26
    747planes
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    Quote Originally Posted by McDabs View Post
    Alright boys I have my Noles winning the Natty Title for 4800...

    I need some advice/opinions on some possible hedging.

    To start things off I am 100% positive FSU wins out and want that to play into the decision.

    We will rip UM to shreds, guessing a 30pt + win.. UF is always our toughest game but I just don't see them being able to score enough pts to stay with us.

    The obv unknown is will winning out even be enough to hold the 2 spot.

    Should I make a play on Oregon now at +350?

    Almost feel like my best bet would be to just hold out and see who the final 2 are.

    Any feedback is appreciated.

    ps - Ill be throwing it all on Crosby to hoist the cup this year with any winnings LOL.
    dont be a pu$$sy, why lose value by hedging
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  27. 10-23-13 05:48 PM #27
    boss_of_um
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    You do nothing until Conference Championship Week if you do anything at all. Since you are assuming FSU wins out I'd just sit back, wait for the NCG and then bet Bama/Oregon against FSU. No reason to hedge until they are actually in the championship game. You have to cover too many teams right now.
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  28. 10-24-13 03:34 PM #28
    SmoothOperRaider
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    Ready?

    Baylor.

    Go!
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  29. 11-04-13 10:54 AM #29
    McDabs
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    Good idea this week to parlay Oregon and Bama LARGE...?

    What will Oregon to win BCS Future drop to if/after they beat Stanford? Currently +275
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  30. 11-06-13 05:15 PM #30
    McDabs
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    Sharps check the fkkk in...
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  31. 11-06-13 05:21 PM #31
    Vegas39
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    Quote Originally Posted by McDabs View Post
    Good idea this week to parlay Oregon and Bama LARGE...?

    What will Oregon to win BCS Future drop to if/after they beat Stanford? Currently +275
    they beat Stanford I'd say +150-175 range
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  32. 11-08-13 07:00 PM #32
    McDabs
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    Vegas I'm sorry about your ducks bud.. would of rather seen Bama go down (not to say I wasn't going bananas while Stanford cleared the number 2 spot for my Noles) lol.

    Nonetheless, I'm happy to say I have yet to hedge this in any way...

    Going going.. back back to Cali Cali..!!!!
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  33. 11-27-13 05:09 PM #33
    McDabs
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    Ohio State +1200 anyone??

    Throw another 400 on it and Im basically guaranteeing a team if not both in the BCS game..

    More or less a safety net just in case FSU somehow loses or gets screwed by this Winston nonsense..

    Also betting that Bama goes down to Auburn or in the SEC Champ game.

    FSU v OSU and Id be enjoying the game while cashing 4400
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  34. 11-30-13 11:36 PM #34
    McDabs
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    GREAT DAY LADIES..... Just got back from the Penguin Panthers game with a 5-1 victory cashing the puckline at +180 for 4 units.

    Bama goes down...

    Noles shmack the gators...

    And I have 4honey for 36 at +900 on Ohio State.

    FSU for 48 or Ohio State for 36...

    Cant wait.
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  35. 12-01-13 12:09 AM #35
    Time is Money
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    Quote Originally Posted by McDabs View Post
    GREAT DAY LADIES..... Just got back from the Penguin Panthers game with a 5-1 victory cashing the puckline at +180 for 4 units.

    Bama goes down...

    Noles shmack the gators...

    And I have 4honey for 36 at +900 on Ohio State.

    FSU for 48 or Ohio State for 36...

    Cant wait.
    OSU still has to beat MSU next week. A loss + Auburn wins puts AUB in the title game.
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