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A Play on the Duke/Virginia total...
I've been watching the movement on this line during the week - started at 51.5 and has moved to 52.5, currently its 52 at 5dimes.eu... With more bets coming in on the 'over' on several books.
-When I look at this matchup I see two teams that like to spread the ball around recently, particularly Duke - Anthony Boone returned last week against Navy and completed 31-of-38 passes for a career-high 295 yards and three touchdowns. 6 receivers caught the ball in that match-up and that tells me Boone is seeing his reads correctly, and accurately. Furthermore Duke has averaged 43 points over the last three games, and has had a balanced ground and air attack.
-This Virginia defense is interesting as they've surrendered over 134 points in losses to Oregon (this is understandable) Ball State, and Maryland - they did however limit BYU to 16 points, and have showed signs of consistency defensively on the road. But this game is at home, where the defense has surrendered close to 35 points per game, 0 points against VMI - but that is not a matchup I take seriously. Furthermore I expect to see the same offensive scheme demonstrated @ Maryland -David Watford threw for 263 yards, and Kevin Parks ran for 100+ yards with a TD, he averaged close to 6 yards per carry. In all Virginia accumulated close to 500 yards of total offense.
-This Virginia defense has been susceptible to the run, and I expect Duke to counter that with some play-action, and balanced running game, being able to move the ball, and put points on the board.
-I know Virginia has struggled at times in offense this year, close to 23 points per game, but they are averaging 28 points at home, coupled with what their defense has surrendered, I expect to see this game get to the high 20's cumulatively for each team. Virginia's scoring is crucial for this game, as I see Duke being able to move the ball.
With all this said I like the play on the 'over' 52 here. At a total of 52 the previous 3 match-ups have gone 'over' with 1 push @ that number.
I have also been watching the total on the Washington v. Arizona State line - which has gradually moved up to 67 over the course of the week. I like the 'over' in that game as well but I prefer betting a lower total like the Duke/Virginia game given the scenarios I covered previously.
In any case good luck with your bets, should be a fun day tomorrow.
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Originally Posted by jjgold
