1. 10-12-13 07:09 AM #1
    Jago2008
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    Florida vs. LSU - disucssion/lean.

    I've been really impressed and surprised by this LSU offense this year - Mettenberger and Can Cameron are working well as a team, they've averaged 46 points a game, 46, this is LSU we're discussing. We've known this LSU team as a "traditionally defensive" team which they still are, but now they have an offense to match, they put up 59 point on Mississippi state last week...

    -Mettenberger has thrown for 1738 yards this year with 15 TDs, approx a 290 yard avg. and only two interceptions, he's been as good as you could expect this year. But his success has been promulgated by a great running game with Jeremy Hill and Terrence Mcgee, having close to 1000 yards rushing between the two and 12 TDs. This is an offense that will score at home under this crowd, they churn out 500 yards a game, with almost 200 yards rushing....

    -With that said this Florida defense is one of the best LSU will be facing and that's something to recognize, they are close to the top in the run, pass, and SECOND in total defense. They produce turnovers and special teams has been good - but that ultimately means nothing if Florida's offense can't match LSU's.

    -This line, in my humble opinion, set at -7.5 LSU currently is an attempt to lure $$$ on Florida here given last week's performance, understandable, but unless Florida can have a special teams TD, and Defensive TD again, I don't see how they match pace with this LSU offense. If they fall behind early, watch this LSU go to work - they're no slouch either.

    If you can grab LSU at -6.5 that's a statistically sound bet in my opinion just based on the matchup I've ran, books have moved it as much up to 7.5 at the moment to garner some public money on Florida.

    obviously the ML is the best option with a pick'em, but not many want to pay -300.

    I can see Florida staying in this game because of their defense but I'm backing the LSU offense @home here.

    Best of luck.
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  2. 10-12-13 07:36 AM #2
    wildcorndog
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    Tease Florida
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  3. 10-12-13 07:36 AM #3
    wildcorndog
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    Over is a lock
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  4. 10-12-13 08:06 AM #4
    Jago2008
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    Don't tease college football bro, highly unpredictable unlike the NFL where you can gain a much better edge statistically on lines like that based on parity. I know a lot of casinos adjust to that w/ their lines, but any bookie would take a college teaser.

    With that said I pretty much see Florida losing by 10 or more points here so there might be some value in that. Football can be weird, always can get a backdoor cover like Ohio State did in Northwestern, so you never know. GL man, I just have a play on the line.
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  5. 10-12-13 08:22 AM #5
    mnwild11
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    Couple of the pick services have FL +7.5, one of them for 20 UNITS. I'm torn
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  6. 10-12-13 09:11 AM #6
    Huckleberry Pig
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    think this has a classic SEC game written all over it. very back and forth. this will by far be the best D LSU has played so far, very fast. Florida O will be able to score on LSU D, they have been better without Driskell. I think this game comes down to a fg. Really like Florida anything over a TD.
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  7. 10-12-13 09:12 AM #7
    wildcorndog
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    I teased LSU against georgia and did well..

    If you wanna win try this


    6pt tease

    LSU
    A&M
    Oregon

    If your greedy add

    Georgia
    Saints
    Indy
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  8. 10-12-13 09:27 AM #8
    Mac4Lyfe
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    If it comes down to a UF FG than UF backers are fukked. Their FG kicker sucks monkey nuts...

    Quote Originally Posted by Huckleberry Pig View Post
    think this has a classic SEC game written all over it. very back and forth. this will by far be the best D LSU has played so far, very fast. Florida O will be able to score on LSU D, they have been better without Driskell. I think this game comes down to a fg. Really like Florida anything over a TD.
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  9. 10-12-13 09:30 AM #9
    Huckleberry Pig
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mac4Lyfe View Post
    If it comes down to a UF FG than UF backers are fukked. Their FG kicker sucks monkey nuts...
    i could give two shits if he misses. not playin ML. if it comes down to a fg either way, I'll be on the right side of the spread lol
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  10. 10-12-13 10:30 AM #10
    El_Paladín
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    Scooped up LSU -6.5 right when the line came out : +)
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  11. 10-12-13 02:41 PM #11
    Jago2008
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    This line moved all the way to -9 before kickoff...
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  12. 10-12-13 03:04 PM #12
    weatherhawg
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    I'm on Florida +7. Like what I'm seeing but it's early...
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  13. 10-12-13 03:20 PM #13
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by wildcorndog View Post
    I teased LSU against georgia and did well..

    If you wanna win try this


    6pt tease

    LSU
    A&M
    Oregon

    If your greedy add

    Georgia
    Saints
    Indy
    Glad you won Corndog, not rooting against you in any way. Just my two cents about teasers in CFB.

    GL man.
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  14. 10-12-13 03:25 PM #14
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Huckleberry Pig View Post
    think this has a classic SEC game written all over it. very back and forth. this will by far be the best D LSU has played so far, very fast. Florida O will be able to score on LSU D, they have been better without Driskell. I think this game comes down to a fg. Really like Florida anything over a TD.
    I think that approach is completely understandable, but you don't find it interesting that books with all that knowledge still set the line at 7.5 opening? It is interesting they are using the key number of 7.

    With all this said I don't know how you can grab LSU -9, there is value on that for Florida, far too many variables need to go your way to grab that line against this Florida defense.
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  15. 10-12-13 03:52 PM #15
    Jago2008
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    Overcome a 3rd and 17 for a TD , I like the way Tigers are moving the ball with this balanced approach.

    Still a lot of game left.
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  16. 10-12-13 04:15 PM #16
    Jago2008
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    95 yards rushing in the first half for LSU - against a team allowing just 65 rush yds per game entering this contest. That's a good start for a team predicated on the run.
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  17. 10-12-13 05:38 PM #17
    Jago2008
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    TWO 4th down plays converted on this drive by Florida!!?

    Making this an interesting game...
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  18. 10-12-13 05:39 PM #18
    Jago2008
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    OMG that sack was crucial by LSU.
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  19. 10-12-13 05:47 PM #19
    Huckleberry Pig
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    the false start by humphries was way more crucial. you're looking at 3rd and 4. you know you're going for it on 4th. and the dumbass does a false start AGAIN to go into 3rd and 9. then he misses his fukkin block on the very next play.
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  20. 10-12-13 05:56 PM #20
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Huckleberry Pig View Post
    the false start by humphries was way more crucial. you're looking at 3rd and 4. you know you're going for it on 4th. and the dumbass does a false start AGAIN to go into 3rd and 9. then he misses his fukkin block on the very next play.
    It was a great game. I thought LSU was going to run away with it in the first half when it was 14-3 but Florida's defense kept them in the game like I had imagined.
    Just a down-right oldschool slugfest, what makes the SEC great.
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  21. 10-12-13 06:00 PM #21
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by El_Paladín View Post
    Scooped up LSU -6.5 right when the line came out : +)


    Nice win, good to start the day up several units.
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  22. 10-12-13 06:00 PM #22
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mac4Lyfe View Post
    If it comes down to a UF FG than UF backers are fukked. Their FG kicker sucks monkey nuts...
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  23. 10-12-13 06:24 PM #23
    Jago2008
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    Well 3-0 on my recent college football plays, I'm not a huge poster here but I try to be as accurate as possible when I do post.

    BOL tonight


    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-fo...-oklahoma.html

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-fo...e-matchup.html
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