[ChalkyDog]

USC opened up as nice faves, and so far the money is coming in on Zona.

Main questions of this game:

1) How will USC react to Kiffin getting canned. - Biggest factor/unkown. (Zona pounded UCLA on Thurs when Stoops was shitcanned - it's a popular angle.

2) What is up with Lee for USC? Dude put up huge numbers on the Cats last year. Huge. Their WR falls of significantly after that.

3) Redd is set to make his debut vs. Arizona. This guy was a very good back last time I saw him.

4) How do the QB's matchup? Denker (ZONA) looked like shit (to be nice) vs. UW. UW has a legit defense, but I mean shit. Really bad. I've watched USC a time or two this season, and Kessler (USC) has looked below average to bad. The loss of his main target doesn't help. If Kessler can't pass, I expect a much improved Arizona defense to simply stack the box on the only guy who can do anything in Redd.


5) All numbers for this game, to include trends and basic handicapping predictors all have Arizona as the better team. Significantly. In some instances, they should be favored. In most instances this is a PK at worst.


Trends, FWIW:

- Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

- Underdog is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

- Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Southern California.

- Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

- Over is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games in October.


My .02 cents is Rich Rod is coming off a bye week, and Arizona can score. We have a very solid RB, but we can't get anything open down field to loosen the box. Arizona's defense is greatly improved, although I think our stats are inflated right now. Arizona has historically played USC very tough.

The smart money seems to be on Arizona. I had a knee jerk reaction when this line first came out that USC easy, simply because of the coaching angle and the way Arizona played last week. I've been riding home teams in conference play, especially with the lights on - but I have some reservations backing either side.

So, what are the thoughts on this game? If you're on USC, is there a reason other than the fact Kiffin got fired?

Note: I am going to bet on this game, and I assume a large amount of PT'ers will be as well. Figured I might try and facilitate discussion.

Weather is gorgeous. Bit chilly for So. Cal, but very nice.

[Louisvillekid1]

I have USC -6 1x as one of my 5 plays this week (took too long looking at the game and missed the 4)

I simply think the team comes out motivated at home, with the change at the helm.

[JRoZe410]

Arizona has a pretty solid offense and as we seen against Arizona State, USC has a shitty defense.Im thinking a close game IF USC can keep up with Arizona.Im taking Arizona +6.

[Louisvillekid1]

Arizona has a pretty solid offense and as we seen against Arizona State, USC has a shitty defense.Im thinking a close game IF USC can keep up with Arizona.Im taking Arizona +6.

They have one of the best defenses in NCAAF

[JRoZe410]

Well, it didn't look like it to me in that game.I could see if they held Arizona State to 30-40 pts because how good their offense is, but 62!

[Louisvillekid1]

I agree that game got outta hand, but I've unfortunately watched most of their games this season and that group can flat out hit.

I know the numbers might not agree, but lets give them a mulligan on that one

[JRoZe410]

I agree that game got outta hand, but I've unfortunately watched most of their games this season and that group can flat out hit.

I know the numbers might not agree, but lets give them a mulligan on that one

Ill take your word for it.That is the only game I have watched of their's this year and it kind of reminded me of them last year when I thought they were shit also.I still can't go against Rich Rod in this one.I still think its gonna be a close game though.

[Cougsky17]

Well, it didn't look like it to me in that game.I could see if they held Arizona State to 30-40 pts because how good their offense is, but 62!

The classic "we are quitting on you, coach" effort.

USC defense is ridiculous in the front 7, solid in the secondary.

[ChalkyDog]

The classic "we are quitting on you, coach" effort.

USC defense is ridiculous in the front 7, solid in the secondary.

This legit? If that is true, that is a big advantage. Arizona lives on the ground. Running that read option shit.

[teaserpleaser]

They are good I don't know about ridiculous not like this is the pete carroll edition or the Florida gators were talking about here but they are solid ... That said i'll probably be on that over 47.5

[Cougsky17]

Allowing under 100 yards per game on the ground, 200 yards passing, 10th in the nation in sacks per game.

Top 20 in pass efficiency defense.

And all of that is after giving up a ton to ASU.

if they had stuck with Kessler all the way from the start they'd probably be 5-0.

[Louisvillekid1]

He is saying ridiculous in a good way

chalky you know this conference guy,

nothing I can tell you that you don't already know

hardest hitting team I've seen, and I'm a college degen

[Vinnie Paz]

Sounds like we should just take the under? First half under? Zonateam under?

[teaserpleaser]

should be 5-0 they played shit teams hawaii,wash st , Utah st, Arizona st is decent still middle of the pack pac 12 team those stats don't really wow me I watched every game they're good but we'll see how good they really are when they play Oregon st, Stanford and ucla

[teaserpleaser]

Sounds like we should just take the under? First half under? Zonateam under?

look like Arizona's QB situation is shaky at best

[teaserpleaser]

He is saying ridiculous in a good way

chalky you know this conference guy,

nothing I can tell you that you don't already know

hardest hitting team I've seen, and I'm a college degen

I know what hes saying

[jjgold]

I'm just taking the USC on a hunch bet

[tokio]

Ya forgetting the Arizona D has been fairly decent itself.

[ChalkyDog]

Ya forgetting the Arizona D has been fairly decent itself.

I feel this is a fair point. We were bottom 5-10 defense last year. Last rankings I saw we were top 35ish. That said, I feel like the stats lie a bit, insofar as the 3 wins on the schedule were against bad teams, meaning our defensive numbers - hell all of Arizona's numbers - are inflated.

[bubblebuttluv]

A few things:

Lee's numbers are down because their QB's are shit and Kiffen refused to use him properly this season. That WSU game was brutal. He ran Lee on End-Around's like a million times. Make no mistake, Lee (full disclosure I am a huge Marqise Lee fan) may be the best WR in college (either him or Sammy Watkins). It's like Larry Fitzgerald, a man who has had shit QB's for so long after Kurt Warner left, but as an individual player, Fitzgerald is STILL A TOP 2 OR 3 WIDE RECEIVER IN THE NFL. Shit QB's reflect very poorly on the guy who they are throwing the ball too.

Matt Barkley wasn't even that great, but he was far better than the guys they have now.

Also, as LKid1 said, USC has a great defense.

[bubblebuttluv]

I'll be happy to see Silas Redd again.

[coitus_maximus]

I think we have a bad matchup with USC. Arizona is a team that likes to run the ball. Front 7 of USC are tough. Give me USC -6. Also, think they come out motivated and with Redd coming to play, looks good.

[ChalkyDog]

I think we have a bad matchup with USC. Arizona is a team that likes to run the ball. Front 7 of USC are tough. Give me USC -6. Also, think they come out motivated and with Redd coming to play, looks good.

"we" - you a zona fan?

Solid name, btw!

[Husker36]

I'll take the team with better athletes on both sides of the ball. USC - 6 for me

[chino08]

USC will win they will be energized and the coliseum will be packed, unlike earlier this year because of lane kiffin

USC has better athletes and their front 7 legit......star linebacker breslin out tonight though

SC has played a tad better competition than Zona. Zona stats are skewed because they played UTSA, Northern Arizona and UNLV.

SC's 55 scholarships are better than all of UTSA, Northern Arizona, and UNLV players.

i have SC on the ML.......the spread is tricky because SC is down to 3 scholarship WR's because of the injuries. May need to cause some turnovers to get a cover.

both teams are well rested and should be a good game.

[FilletMaster]

Lee is out, New coach, If Wazzu can win in LA, Cats can roll......... Zona ML for me

[BigdaddyQH]

USC is going back to the pre-Carroll/Kiffin offense, meaning that they will depend alot more on their running attack than their passing game. If the offensive line does it's thing, USC is going to be able to control the ball and keep Arizona's offense off the field. That will determine who wins and who covers.

[potlimit]

Maybe I don't get it, but for the life of me I can't understand why anyone would want to get their money down on a game like this. Both teams have played up for this game the last few years, with almost everyone involved last year having the game of their lives. Lee had 469 all purpose yards and they STILL lost. Matt Scott sustained a concussion, puked on national TV, then threw his helmet back on and tossed a touchdown pass.

Additionally, evaluating this game is like a battle of the negatives. Every time Kessler or Denker goes back to pass I do that thing with my face like I'm about to get a tetanus shot. And their best options (Austin Hill for Denker, Lee for Kessler) are out. Ka'deem Carey is a stud but that's gonna be of little consequence if Zona can't get SC to quit stacking the box. Big boy Breslin out for SC though. A lot of posters on here have correctly pointed out that the biggest difference in this game is SC's front seven, however, a lot of people have also said they believe the ASU game was either a fluke, or that they just quit on Kiffin. Don't buy that. I was at the game on the SC side and the D was just absolutely gassed.

As far as the players "showing up for the new coach," I'm not really a fan of that as an analytic. Problem is, you could make the argument either way with that. "Guys have new energy." Really? You don't think they were energized for their home opener that they dumped to wazzu 10-7? Energy typically can't overcome an ineffective game plan.

Zona's offense in the Washington game could be better described as the time the defense had on the sideline to discuss how it's possible that Denker won a three-way race for QB. Maybe Rich Rod is starting to figure out that the read option is only gonna benefit them against undermatched teams like UTSA.

Put your quarter back in your pocket, flip it on some other game.

(Disclaimer: huge Zona fan... BEAR DOWN)

[JabooFootball]

Sorry for being unclear. When I said ridiculous I meant ridiculously good, in regards to USCs front 7. Boston College has a strong running game and USC held them to 100 yards.

[Microbetter]

USC -6 (now -5), better defense. Az has no passing game, so it won't be hard to defend.

[Bruce Norris]

My .02 guys, as a life long USC fan and season ticket holder. Lee is most likely OUT tonight. Thin at WR. I follow a bunch of their players on twitter and like to think I have a good handle on things. (although I thought that when they lost to ASU as well)
The kids are pumped. They have had spirited practices and a competitive week. I think they come out with a ton of emotion and looking to really play hard.
How good is the defense? They looked so great early on, but like garbage against ASU. I think things snowballed and got out of control. The D line is very good. Secondary good. Will they bounce back?
I think SC runs the ball a lot tonight. Redd is going to play, and is saying he's gonna run like he's got a chip on his shoulder tonight. This is going to help the defense, and Kessler as well. Lee might not be there, but they do have Aghlor. Talk all week was that they really worked on incorporating the TE's in practice. This has been a complaint by MANY next to the program for quite some time. Talented TE's that never see the ball.
It poured last night. It's been gorgeous all day, but it really rained hard here last night. Field may not be in tip top shape, which leads me to believe SC will run more.

I have SC winning this game, and by 2 TD's. Not sure if they'll ride the emotion for the rest of the year and play like a good team or not. But tonight, I really think they do. There's a buzz going around the team from within, it's real. Now whether they can harness it and play accordingly, that's anyone's guess.

[jarvol]

In Ed Orgeron we trust!!!!

Trojans large.

[ChalkyDog]

Going USC ATS. Think emotion runs high.

Also USC 1h.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

gl pal. i might just pass on this game.

[sweep]

Lang is on Zona



END THREAD