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Machine Choice analysis: Western Michigan at Iowa
Iowa will be content to grind the rock with Weisman. Don't look for HC Ferentz to allow their Soph QB Rudock to throw the ball much, since he's already thrown three picks this year and is shaky in the pocket. Also, WMU has possibly the best secondary in the MAC. Iowa will not test that and doesn't need to, they can control the line of scrimmage and that is what they will do.
WMU's offense has just enough firepower to cover the 16.5 points. Tubbergen is a senior QB and won't be rattled after already going into Michigan State in the first game of the year. In that game, WMU faced an offense very similar to Iowa's and yet WMU only lost by 13 despite using a backup QB who threw an INT and fumbled another ball that was scooped and scored. Against Nicholls and Northwestern, WMU faced a zone read-option attack that scorched the Broncos. That will NOT be the case against the Hawkeyes, who run a vanilla offense that relies on ground and pound.
Two things to note about Iowa: they collapse late in games. Against NIU they gave up 10 points in the final 5 minutes to lose the game. Against Missouri State and Iowa State they gave up 2 touchdowns in the 4th quarter of both games to make those games close. So no matter what happens, Tubbergen can throw the ball enough to get WMU a backdoor cover. Even if they are down by 30 in the 3rd quarter, stay tuned and watch what happens. It's also worth noting that Iowa only led Missouri State (FCS) 7-0 at halftime. And, Iowa is in a letdown spot, sandwiched between rivalry win over Iowa State last week and start of Big 10 play next week (against 3-0 Minnesota).
Money Stat: last year these teams faced three common opponents and both teams outgained all three opponents with only a 52-yard advantage to IOWA!
Also, the WMU team stopped by their HC's (PJ Fleck) high school on their way to this game and did a workout on the same field where their HC led his team to two state titles as a WR. Sentimental angle to WMU here.
Iowa is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games and lost to a 6-6 Central Michigan team last year at home. They are slow and vulnerable, so back WMU in this one.
Predicted Score:
Iowa 30
WMU 17
W. MICHIGAN +16.5
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Originally Posted by Machine Choice
