[nobs]

I have a play for this Saturday that I guarantee you is going to win. Now I will refrain from using the L word simply to avoid getting attacked and yes I know there is no such thing as a .

But anyways I just looked up the word in the websters dictionary and it said

COLORADO STATE TEAM TOTAL UNDER 20

Boys Colorado State averages 23 points per game this year. That is playing against the likes of Suck Diego State who held them to 28 points. How about Weber State who held them to 24 and Colorado who held them to 23, and then the very next week let Toledo get 50+ on them.

In fact, these Rams havent scored out of the 20's except one time all year when they got 35 against Nevada's crap Defense.

Guess what else makes this play as close to a as you will ever get.

AIR FORCE has the Best Defense in College Football. Yes, Air force is giving up 12 points per game this year. They held Utah to 16 in regulation last week not counting the OT Score.

Air Force has 2 injuries on Defense, yes I know they have 2 starting Defense players out for the year. well, those 2 guys have been out 3 games now. During that stretch, Air Force has played 2 ranked teams and Wyoming. During that 3 game stretch, They have given up 36 points in regulation. Yes, that is 12 points per game again.

TCU got 20 points on this Air Force Defense, and that was after the injuries. Then Wyoming got shut out after the injuries. Then Utah got 16 points in regulation after the injuries. Dont worry about injuries. The Injuries happened 3 games ago, they are old news and this Defense is just as good as before the injuries.

No Team has scored more than 20 points on Air Force this entire season. How in the hell is Colorado State going to have a team total of 20 ? And we cant say that the Falcons havent played anyone. Almost every team they have played this year has a higher scoring average than Colorado State.

There is NO WAY that Colorado State will even smell 20 points on Saturday. I wouldnt be surprised to see them get SHUT OUT. This play will not lose as Colorado State would have to score more points than any team all year long has scored on the Falcons for this play to lose. It WONT happen.

At gametime, its not supposed to be raining, but its supposed to be damn cold. Forecast for 30-35 degrees. Freezing cold is just going to help the defense. That Stucker guy who QB's for Colorado State his hands are going to be so cold he wont be able to make an accurate pass.

He isnt even good anyway. Barely 50% pass completions this year against far inferior Defenses than what he will be seeing saturday.

For what its worth, yes I love Air Force -5 and the Under 45, but I am telling you now who knows what might happen with the 5 and 45, but I know what will happen with the Colorado State Team total.

UNDER 20

[ronjon619]

[drfunkmaster]

BOL

[Dbldown11]

normally when someone makes a guarantee it's backed by something.......So if I wager on the Colorado team under 20 and it loses you'll pay me whatever it is I lost

[nobs]

no

[nobs]

How the hell do you get -2 points, you really must be

[mcbaseball10]

[mcbaseball10]

GL with your pick NOBS. No offense towards you, just saw the word and it popped into my head

[Intuitive_Edge]

AF has been a bit of a sleeper. u20 something to peek at if they have it at my book

[nobs]

Thanks man,

I dont understand how team total for NM State this weekend is 3.
Team Total for Tulane is 6 1/2

and

team total for Colorado State is 20.

LOL.

No nothing is a lock, but one game Air Force had 6 pass attempts, another game I think they passed 8 times. Air Force does nothing run, run, run, run, run, run, and run some more.

Colorado State cant stop the run, and when a team runs the ball to death ( close to 90% of the time ), that takes a quarter off the game.

There is just no way Colorado State is going to score over 20. No way.

I am 9-2 all plays posted on this board, and I like this one as much as I have liked any of them with the possible exception of the North Texas + 17 1/2 against Ball State play that everyone was hating on --- Before North Texas won the game outright --- by double digits --- as a 17 1/2 point dog.

What ever happened to all those haters saying they were "all over" Ball State ? Never heard from them again. LOL.

Well, this play is right up there with that one.

[nobs]

I know anything could happen, Air Force could fumble 3 times deep in their own territory and give Colorado State 21 points. Anything can happen with 18 year old kids, but I dont see any logic as to how this team total can be lined at 20. None at all.

And I am thinking it must have opened at 21 as opening line was Air Force 3 1/2 now its up to 6 1/2

[mcbaseball10]

FYI, Air Force QB is back so they will be throwing more. Still looks good for you, but he will change the game plan for them.

Let me clarify...The original starting QB JEFFERSON from last year and the first 3 games this year (the better thrower) is back. Dietz is out with a broken hand..

[nobs]

The pass stats I gave include both Dietz and Jefferson.

This Air Force team has been nothing but run run run run all year and last year.

Air Force averaging 66 pass yards a game and almost 300 rush yards a game this year. Still scoring twice as many points as they give up, and this team has played 3 ranked teams + Navy + Minnesota. Its been a decent schedule they have shut down all year long.

These are big military boys, they are going to be able to run pretty easy against Colorado State's weak rushing Defense. Plus the weather at gametime is not conducive to passing, so Air Force isnt going to use this as the first game all year where they are going to try and break out the pass.

The weather conditions are also going to force Colorado State to run a lot and pass less.

The St. Louis Rams couldnt score 20 on Air Force.

[Smurf71]

Guy gives away his honest opinion that does make lot of sense. Col St will remain under 20 points .... Betting limits on props are not very high but there is a chance to make easy $400-500 here. So thank you man for that! No reason to be sarcastic or negative. Besides " I guarantee " is just a metaphor in this forum, nothing more.

[BigdaddyQH]

I agree with you that the Air Force should be able to win this game quite easily. We were shocked to see the Air Force down to -3 at one time. The only thing I could come up with is the fact that the game has gone over 4 out of the past 5 years, and that Colorado State has basically owned the Air Force at home. But that is for the technical players.

[nobs]

Thanks smurf and Big Daddy, I know nothing is guaranteed 100% but this play is definitely +EV

[ipickwinners]

since this is a guaranteed play can bet 10k on it and if it loses u would pay me 10k?

[nobs]

no

[ipickwinners]

ok then, what is the guarantee if it loses?

[nobs]

[kp126]

thank you... i took this "lock" after good insight and cashed in. Keep it coming.

I wish I had wagered more.

[blkngold]

Nobs,
Good write up. Often times I read over different threads, if the info sounds good I go and re-handicap it myself. You were so right on with numbers. Thanks for the heads up, I did very well with this pick.

Good luck this week...........