[weatherhawg]

I've been going back and forth with an Aggie friend of mine about the A&M/Alabama matchup and I just posted several comments to him and forwarded an article to him discussing why I thought Bama would pull this one out. Here's a link to a well written and very informative article about Sumlin's offense and the trouble Bama had early in the matchup last year (MODS if this is inappropriate please delete):

http://www.sbnation.com/longform/201...-gameplan-2013

Here's my response in a note I sent to him moments ago...

"It's an excellent article outlining the complexities of Sumlin's offense at A&M and what defenses have to do to stop them. LSU did an excellent job...mainly because they had the talent/speed in the secondary to defend man-to-man while keeping safeties within about ~10 yards of the line of scrimmage to 1) stop the run and 2) defend Manziel. I did not watch the Florida game that closely but I'm pretty sure a similar game plan was employed. According to the article, Bama really didn't adjust to this type of defense to defend Manziel until in the second quarter. If you notice, A&M only scored nine points after the second quarter...and exploded for the first 20 points of the game by catching Bama in defenses (read: zone coverage) that they had repeatedly torched many times before.

Bama's secondary is their strong suit this year and they will be able to defend your receivers man-to-man. I think Bama will also try to scheme to keep safeties in the box or relatively close to the line of scrimmage to defend the run and also defend Manziel. That leaves a few options offensively here:


1) Deep (~20 yard) crossing routes to try to get separation between DBs and receivers (these routes takes some time to develop though)


2) Deep fade routes (corners will give outside release but also run with WRs in coverage. A low percentage play unless there is a signficant height/size or speed mismatch between WRs and CBs)


3) Wheel routes (where WRs cross about 7-12 yards down field and then run deep). Surprisingly I didn't see A&M run a lot of this against LSU and it may be a way to get separation between WRs and CBs to get big pass completions and even quick touchdowns.


4) Deep post routes or post-corner routes (A&M's last touchdown against Bama last year was on a post-corner route. Requires accuracy from the QB on deep, difficult passes like this to complete)

The problem with running deep routes frequently, however, is the ability of defenses to 'pin their ears back' and pressure the qb when offenses get too one-dimensional.


I really do believe Bama will come up with something to slow down Sumlin's offense. Saban's had all off-season to devise a game plan and he will be ready. I have two questions: 1) What will Sumlin have to counter a one-deep or two-deep man-coverage? and 2) Will A&M's defense be able to stop Bama and keep the team in the game in the event that A&M's offense isn't able to get on track?


No question Sumlin will have a counter attack. But the answer to #2 will determine who wins. IMO Bama will roll..."

I know there's some sharps/football nerds out there in the forum who analyze football down to the strategy level like this. I'm interested in your thoughts...

[gojetsgomoxies]

i just think bama has big revenge and can prepare differently after losing once....... and i just manziel has had too much distraction/pressure/etc. and i find that never works out well.... i realize not the most detailed analysis