[ZINISTER]

Don't always look to bet the good teams. If you find a team not playing at a competitive level bet against em til they beat you two weeks in a row. Bad teams play bad every week. A good team has its let downs from week to week. This year I am betting against Ohio U and Miami of Ohio. For the record I bet on Miami of Ohio to keep it close with Lou but had no answers and looked to be completely helpless from start to finish. I know T Bridge is great but those guys were walking in open space waiting for the ball. Easy pitch and catch for a great QB. You don't throw for that high of a percentage against a team with talent. Ohio U is the worst of the two. No defense at all ! !They host North Texas a program starting to attract some Juco transfers and other transfers from major programs. Ohio U is favored and the sharps are all over it early it has dropped a few points since opening. These will be my only two picks this weekend for college. I am stuck with the closing line since I am old school local book bettor. Best of luck !

[ZINISTER]

I live in Akron and they are terrible again. They are favored over Dolly Madison by 3. I am tempted to make a play against them every week just having trouble betting on a Cream filled Cupcake.

[thetrinity]

throw umass and new mexico st on this list. idaho 2

[ZINISTER]

I bet against NM a lot. If you play three teams a week and just get your self to bet against bad teams you can turn a profit most years.

[jaykarrels]

Massachusetts, Buffalo, South Alabama, Memphis, Akron, Southern Miss, Kansas, Colorado St, New Mexico, New Mexico St, Washington St, and Idaho/Idaho St are all STILL horrible.

[ZINISTER]

Massachusetts, Buffalo, South Alabama, Memphis, Akron, Southern Miss, Kansas, Colorado St, New Mexico, New Mexico St, Washington St, and Idaho/Idaho St are all STILL horrible.

.
Let's track these teams I am trying to limit myself to three picks per week. But, I will look these teams up and how they covered in a few weeks and it will have positive result. Good picks of bad teams Jay

[jaykarrels]

Thanks man. I know most of these teams pretty well because that's what I bet a lot on last year, just the bad games/teams that nobody wanted to watch.

[ZINISTER]

Was the results positive?

[ZINISTER]

keep your eye on Akron. I live in Akron and they are terrible just hard laying money on a team like James Madison which Akron plays this week. Akron is favs by 3

[jaykarrels]

I won about 70% of the games I bet on last year, and would win parlay's a lot. But I didn't start betting until week three, so it was easier to see who was bad.

[ZINISTER]

Take a look at the Ohio U/North Texas game it is a strong play for me this week. North Texas should win easily and they are getting points.

[Death Valley]

Correct.You can't polish a turd.Valpo is awful as well.Washington State at least covered vs Auburn.New Mexico cost my brother $450 in winnings since they busted two of his parlays.UTEP only laying 6 to them at home this week should be easy money.

[House]

^^^^^ I like North Texas this week also but I drink a lot so who cares lol

[Oteder]

Zin master nice love the thread I like the bad team angle and u right I also see not how good a team is but how bad thumbs up!

[gojetsgomoxies]

the 10 worst teams from 2011 were 64-52 ATS last year for 55%.....

the problem is that absolutely horrible teams like akron, NMS, NM, UMass are already priced as such by market.

UMass and NMS hung around awhile with wisc/texas and only missed covering by a point or two. NM was real surprise last year. was leading for quite awhile on saturday.

i think it's better to try to be early in finding this year's colorado/hawaii/southern mississippi (might add illinois but they have been disappointing and great ATS value for awhile now)

i think big name horrible teams are much better value in general.... if i had to blindly follow or fade long time horrible programs, i'd follow them.

[jaykarrels]

It's not so much in finding the bad teams that are playing the good teams. It's more about finding bad teams that are playing horrible teams. Or small schools that are playing horrible teams. What I do is find teams that can score, but get beat. If they are playing a crappy team, you can be sure they will be able to beat them by at least 10 points. If the spread is less than 10, boom instant value.

[suicidekings]

I think any team I back needs to have at least one quality that they do really well. Something you can rely on as a basis for your wager. Bad teams often tend to be inconsistent teams as well, so there has to be something about them that you're fairly certain will be true in any given week.

[Crate Mayne]

Pretty much only way I bet... Never really understood the people that bet on Duke vs UNC (bball) type matchups every week.... Funk I wanna lay money on an obvious coin flip for?

It's either powerhouses versus creampuffs, or smaller schools where one clearly is better, and so on.

[jaykarrels]

Just some random facts:

-New Mexico State has dropped 12 in a row BY AT LEAST TWO TD's!!!
-Southern Mississippi Hasn't won a game in over a year!
-Idaho only had 19 touchdowns in 12 games last year
-Colorado-dropped their last eight games by an average of 36 points (not including their week 1 win against CSU)
-Massachusetts only scored over 20 points in three games
-Illinois all of their last 8 games (except 1) were decided by at least two touchdowns.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Probably should add Kentucky to the list... I learned my lesson betting on them on Saturday.

[ZINISTER]

Probably should add Kentucky to the list... I learned my lesson betting on them on Saturday.

I am taking Kentucky and laying 17pts. or so to Miami of Ohio. Miami of Ohio quits playing and seem to have no discipline. Kentucky will feast on this squad of quitters. A low class SEC team that's gets the shit kicked outta them regularly will have some fun for once.

[KnockEmDown]

Any read on CSU +10 @ Tulsa? Tulsa was totally inept on offense last week (against an improved Bowling Green). So was it an anomaly or the norm this year? CSU can score points and move the ball, they just don't win. Thoughts?

[jaykarrels]

I am staying away from that game. Colorado looked better than normal, and CSU could have won that game, so who knows. But if I had to pick, I'd go with the home team.

[sportfan]

sacramento st

[KnockEmDown]

I am staying away from that game. Colorado looked better than normal, and CSU could have won that game, so who knows. But if I had to pick, I'd go with the home team.

Thanks Jay, that's how I was leaning too. I can't remember a Tulsa team in recent years not scoring, especially in back to back weeks. Probably won't touch this game.

[ZINISTER]

Anybody know anything about James Madison. Tempted to take them and the points against my home town Zips. Akron is a real bad squad. Colorado looks to be improving and possible going to remove them from my list of pure crap list. But if you feel they still have to prove themselves beat against em and best of luck.

[sportfan]

they bet vt 2 years ago if i remembered it right terrible team tho , i wouldnt put $$ on them

[ZINISTER]

they bet vt 2 years ago if i remembered it right terrible team tho , i wouldnt put $$ on them

Thanks Sporto. So they can win a game of that caliber 2 years ago 20 years ago they still should be able to post a win against Akron. I need to look at some past history on them and check returning starters before I finalize. I'm technically not betting Madison I am betting against Akron no matter who it is. it is hard to bet my doe when I have next to no info on a team.

[ZINISTER]

the 10 worst teams from 2011 were 64-52 ATS last year for 55%.....

the problem is that absolutely horrible teams like akron, NMS, NM, UMass are already priced as such by market.

UMass and NMS hung around awhile with wisc/texas and only missed covering by a point or two. NM was real surprise last year. was leading for quite awhile on saturday.

i think it's better to try to be early in finding this year's colorado/hawaii/southern mississippi (might add illinois but they have been disappointing and great ATS value for awhile now)

i think big name horrible teams are much better value in general.... if i had to blindly follow or fade long time horrible programs, i'd follow them.

The one I remember nailing last year was Notre Dame in the championship game. Not horrible just ranked and undefeated for beating nobody. When a team that is undefeated the likes of Kansas St. when they step into the ring with a banger they get dropped. Nice angle Jets

[ZINISTER]

Started looking into the Kentucky/Miami Oh. tilt. Kentucky made a Qb change in the 4th qtr. this kid throws 2 Tds his name is Maxwell started up until he tore his ankle up against SCar. a year ago. The defense looks to be a bunch of freshman Stoops brought in his first recruits. Which from what I read was Kentuckys' highest rated recruits ever. With the offense I seen from Miami I have no worries Stoops can't make adjustments to stop this Miami offense. Kentucky rushed for 216 passed for 200plus zero Ints just couldn't stop em on Def. Feel free to let me know what you think about this pick.

[player101]

Consistency is the key...find a good/bad team...that is consistent ...a winning combination...inconsistency cost...just saying

[gojetsgomoxies]

maybe it's a better angle than i thought at first.... although i wouldn't play against the perennial horrible teams necessarily. i think NMS and UMass are properly priced by market. Idaho might be have its horridness underpriced.... davie did a great job with new mexico last year so i'd be careful. i thought akron was coming around with a bowden.... leaves EM which i don't think was mentioned.... memphis was a really good team in recent memory.

here are some ATS losers from last year who missed week 1 cover by more than 10 points:

south florida 3-8 ATS last year (love the coach, and they should have talent)

west virginia 5-8 (would have thought they'd be priced bad, but maybe they have much less offense now . so FADE)

eastern michigan 4-8 (don't think they've had a good ATS season in quite awhile)

FIU 5-7 (FADE)

purdue 6-7 (predicted as big dorpoff and missed ATS cover by 25 points to FBS.... FCS losses i don't care as much about)

central michigan 6-7 (what happened to this program? brian kelly? dan lefevour sp??)

southern mississippi 3-9 (didn't realize they missed covering by 14 points.. they were good two years ago)

idaho 3-9 (good fade. only successful was some HFA a few years ago at dome)

iowa state 5-7 (like them as a fade)

miami ohio 3-8 (don't know much about them... marshall is really good so lose not that bad)

south alabama 4-9 (not a team i'd fade. sunbelt is right in the midst of great football talent, could fix and/or improve fast)

[gojetsgomoxies]

Just some random facts:

-New Mexico State has dropped 12 in a row BY AT LEAST TWO TD's!!!
-Southern Mississippi Hasn't won a game in over a year!
-Idaho only had 19 touchdowns in 12 games last year
-Colorado-dropped their last eight games by an average of 36 points (not including their week 1 win against CSU)
-Massachusetts only scored over 20 points in three games
-Illinois all of their last 8 games (except 1) were decided by at least two touchdowns.

most of this is backwards looking.... teams that have had a good season or two in last 6-7 season will generally revert back there...... UMass and NMS got about 90 points aggregate ATS so the market knows how bad they are.

illinois is a good ATS fade name, but it has been for quite awhile which gives me pause.

[ZINISTER]

Nice stuff Gojet. Love the info

[surffreak]

You are missing a lot of stuff about Ohio U when you don't know anything about the team and are cashing in because of a really good Louisville team.

Yes akron and umass are awful. But your going to lose the Ohio U bet.