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One play i love --- louisiana monroe + 17
Well, got back on the winning track with the Air Force play to stop a 2 game losing streak. Overall 9-2 now with all plays posted on this board.
Ok, on to this week. I think we have another crazy line to take advantage of.
Here, we have 2 amazingly even teams and a 17 point line ??? Thats just crazy. Being at home is not worth 17 points, and Troy is not going to cover this outrageously high number.
The Louisiana Monroe warhawks come into this game with a 4-3 record and tied with Troy for first in the conference. Well, Troy is 4-0 in the conference and La Monroe is 3-0, so the winner pretty much has control of the conference.
Not just their records are the same, these 2 teams have pretty idntical resumes this year, and I see no justification at all for troy to be a 17 point favorite here. There is just no way I see Troy winning this game by more than 7, and that might even be a stretch.
The Warhawks have a good Qb. Trey Revell has a 137.02 QB Rating, with 1124 yards and 8 touchdowns. Warhawk running back Frank Goodin is averaging 5 yards a rush this year, while noone on troy's team is even averaging 4 yards per carry.
The Warhawks also have 2 recievers who average over 15 yards per catch, that is Sapp and McNeal. Noone on Troy's team averages even 14.
These teams have played very similar schedules and gotten the same results. La Monroe ranks 69 in strength of Schedule, while Troy ranks 71st. Troy has scored 200 points while the Warhawks have scored 196. Troy has given up 194 points while the Warhawks have given up 203. So, the defense gives up the same and Troy's offense is scoring 1 point more per game.
La Monroe has played 3 good team losing all 3 games. They lost to Texas, Arizona State and Kentucky. Troy has played only one good team losing by 50 to Florida. La Monroe lost by 39 to Texas, which I consider an equal opponent. Troy also got killed 31-14 against a not very good Bowling Green team.
These 2 teams have 2 commom opponents which further proves that this is an even matchup. Troy Beat Arkansas State by 3, La Monroe beat them by 6. Troy beat Florida International by 9, La Monroe beat them by 13.
Troy has only beaten 2 teams by this margin all year. They beat Middle Tennessee State by 24 and North Texas by 24. La Monroe would have also beaten those teams by 20-30 points.
Troy beat Fla International and Arkansas State by single digits. La Monroe is better than both those teams, and beat both those teams handily, yet La Monroe is +17 against a Troy team that couldnt beat Fla. Int. or Ark. St. by half that ???
These 2 teams are amazingly evenly matched. The difference is that most of the gambling world hasn't really ever paid concious attention to Louisiana Monroe, while Troy has been kind of on the national radar as a good second level team since they beat Missouri on national television a few years ago.
Because of that, the books have to make it a huge line knowing that they will get even action in this game even with a number in the range of 14-17. Troy beat North Texas by 24 last week and a lot of gamblers will be happy to lay the 17 here thinking La Monroe is another North Texas.
fact is, The Warhawks are way better than North Texas and would have probably beaten North Texas by more than 24. This will be a close game well into the fourth quarter, and while Troy might win it be 3-7 points, they wont even come close to covering this spread.
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Originally Posted by Mac4Lyfe
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