[guy Fawkes]

I told myself I wasn't going to do write-ups this year. I'm doing an email analysis for a few friends so I figured I'd share here as well, but they won't be as in-depth or statistical as the last two years. If they give you a new/different angle to look at a game, that's great, but don't take them as locks or guarantees or anything of the sort. All lines taken from 5Dimes.eu. Here we go, let's roll:

Incoming Record

2011 NCAAF Write Ups 11-11 (+8.3u)

2012 NCAAF Write Ups 3-3 (+25.0u)

Overall 14-14 (+33.3u)

UK @ WKU - Last year's WKU win was fluky and couldn't happen without more bad luck to UK than I'll take the time to account. Talent-wise, WKU is stacked at OL, but anemic at most other positions. Andrews (RB) is going to have a big game (he has ever since he's begun playing), but with Jakes gone he leaves a hole at QB too big for any WKU player to fill. On the Kentucky side of things, there is a bevy of offensive weaponry. This game will be won by defensive play-calling and superior LB play by Kentucky. UK 30 - WKU 24. The play: UK -4 @ -117 for 2u


Georgia @ Clemson - I still have a hard time saying it, but Georgia is underrated at #5, they've returned a potent offensive corp with 10 starters (they lost an WR1 in Tavarres King, but Murray spread the ball well last year with 11 different players with TDs last season). Gurley is one of those freak running backs, that despite being only a sophomore at 6'1" and about 230 lbs, runs downhill from the point he touches the ball averaging 6.3 yards per carry with 17 TDs last year. When Gurley comes out, Marshall comes in and burns defenses. Clemson is offensively potent as well, but with the loss of Andre Ellington, they lose a lot of trickery in the running game. Tajh Boyd is fantastic, but a little over-hyped at this point. Tajh Boyd only averages 2.8 yards per carry and his longest run last year was for 27 yards. He loves to take the ball in himself, but that isn't much of a secret by now. The key to this game will be the matchup between senior Michael Bennet (WR2) and freshman Mackensie Alexander (CB). Alexander has been highly touted and was ranked #4 on ESPN's 300 high school recruits. Bennet is 6'3" 205 lbs, Alexander is 5'11" 175 lbs. Normally, this matchup would get worked around, but Clemson is extremely light on DBs this year. 5'10", 5'11", 6'0", 6'0", 5'10", 6'0", 6'1", 6'0", 5'10", 6'1", 6'0", 6'0" are all 12 DBs listed on Clemson's roster, with no one over 200 lbs (most aren't over 185 lbs), they have to cover 6'1", 6'3", 6'5", 6'3" averaging around 200 lbs. Georgia doesn't look great on defense, but doesn't have nearly the matchup problems here. Either way this is going to be a monster scoring game: Georgia 38 - Clemson 34. The play: Georgia -3 @ +100 for 2u

LSU @ TCU - LSU has lost a step. Jeremy Hill (RB) is being disciplined for an arrest over the summer and Les Miles is being purposefully vague on his punishment. IF he starts, that will change a few things in this analysis, but by all rights I'm assuming he will at least have to sit this game. Mettenberger is getting better and reports from summer practices are that he has much improved his arm strength and been working very hard. His favorite targets are returning, but I'm getting conflicting reports of who exactly is suiting up. The big story here is on defense, with only 4 returning starters and only 1 on the D-Line. The tigers return 2 stud safeties (side note: who the hell is coaching safeties at LSU, God himself??), but no starting CBs. On the other side of the ball, TCU is returning 9 on a very under-valued defense. Due to a triple overtime game and a double overtime, the defenses statistics against quality opponents has been skewed. Taking OT out of the equation, in 5 games against "Top 25" opponents last year, TCU averaged surrendering 24 points per game. There are undoubtedly some question marks around the offense, but with the return of Boykin and Catalon TCU should be steady scoring, but without much threat to go deep at any time. Boykin has proven himself a short, accurate passer and prefers picking up small chunks of yardage that should take the LSU safeties mostly out of the equation. For what its worth, TCU's backup QB, Pachall, enjoys airing it out much more and is likely to see the field in high-risk-high-reward situations. I'm guessing OT, but that isn't usually something to hang your over/under hat on: LSU 27 - 28 TCU 1OT. The play: TCU ML @ +175 for 1u


UTSA @ New Mexico - This one is short and sweet: New Mexico runs the ball, UTSA stops the run. New Mexico gained just over 81% of their yards last year on the ground, only completing 79 total passes last year. Last year UTSA led the nation in returning starters with 21, this year they lead the nation in returning starters with 19 having lost a D-lineman and RB. Last year UTSA was 30th in the nation in stopping the run, allowing 136.9 yards per game, and came in 25th in the nation in yards per rush attempt allowed at 3.7. UTSA is far from prolific on offense but has plenty of team cohesion at this point and the New Mexico defense is a mystery, only returning 4 starters from last year. Prediction: UTSA 24 - New Mexico 16. The play: UTSA ML @ +150 for 2u, UTSA + 3.5 @ -115 for 3u

In the interest of simplicity in grading later:

UK -4 @ -117 for 2u
Georgia -3 @ +100 for 2u
TCU ML @ +175 for 1u
UTSA ML @ +150 for 2u
UTSA + 3.5 @ -115 for 3u
Good luck wherever your bets may lie and enjoy the first week of the year!

[TheBetBuysDanK]

Nice write ups, GUY! good to see ya again this year! BOL w/ the plays. Love TCU ML

[Dirty D]

I would pass on UK simply because Bobby Petrino is one hell of a coach and is trying to earn a bigtime job again. MIght consider the over because he will score points.

[Filmoz]

Nice work on the write ups Guy. Any word on the LSU running back? I'd imagine that he's going to be sidelined. This was a popular offseason for ncaa running backs to get hit with assault charges.

[guy Fawkes]

UK -4 @ -117 for 2u
Georgia -3 @ +100 for 2u
TCU ML @ +175 for 1u
UTSA ML @ +150 for 2u
UTSA + 3.5 @ -115 for 3u

The best bet comes through relatively easily, but the rest leads to a torturous evening. After a showing like this, not many will be waiting on baited breath for my next picks, but I'll be back around as the mood strikes. Sorry if I may have misled anyone or lead to a worse evening for any readers, but as always - thanks for reading!

2013 NCAAF Write Ups 2-3 (+0.66u)

[guy Fawkes]

I wanna get this up, because I'm imagining some line movement over the next few days. I've decided to just throw them in here for now, I haven't decided if I'll do a new thread per week so they are easier to find the data or even if I will continue these for very long. At any rate, here's one for this weekend that may be time-sensitive:

Incoming Record

2013 NCAAF Write Ups 2-3 (+0.66u)

I’m going to give you the stats from two games, judging only by these lines try to logic out the winners:

	The Decoys @	The Hunters		The Fruitbats @	The Beagles
1st Downs	35	27		13	16
Total Yards	602	530		215	400
Passing	383	155		134	377
Rushing	219	375		81	23
Penalties	8--74	10--84		6--73	2--10
3rd Down C.	1--8	9--17		4--16	5--20

The more cynical have likely figured out that those that appear to be the winners are the losers here. These are the figures from the Wyoming Cowboys @ Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Texas State Bobcats @ The Southern Miss Golden Eagles, so here is the rest of the tale of the tape:

	The Cowboys @	The Huskers		The Bobcats @	The Eagles
4th Down C.	1--1	0--1		1--1	0--4
Turnovers	2	2		1	6
Time of Poss	24:02:00	35:58:00		34:16:00	25:44:00
Score	34	37		22	15

Depending on the degree of repeatability you give to the second set of scores, you may or may not see value between these teams. Nebraska plays host to Southern Miss this weekend and, admittedly, will have worked on a number of aspects of their game following a near nightmare loss to Wyoming in the opening week. Without getting too wordy, here’s the numbers for returning starters (blatantly ripped off from Phil Steele):

TEAM	CONF	TOTAL	OFF	QB	RB/FB	REC/TE	OL	DEF	DL	LB	DB's	K	P
Southern Miss	CUSA	13	5	1	0	2	2	8	3	3	2	0	0
Nebraska	BIG 10	13	9	1	1	3	4	4	1	1	2	0	0

This game will be decided by the offensive line for the Golden Eagles. They won’t have to be anything near perfect, but if the Golden Eagles can find the end zone a few times in this one it should be plenty to cover such a large spread. Nebraska will score and Tino Martinez will have a great game, but should be looking to end this one early and comfortably by a few scores. I look for Southern Miss to bring the turnover ratio much closer to a realistic number having shaken off the starting week’s rust (the first three Golden Eagle drives against the Bobcats resulted in a fumble) and return some respect to the team.

Score estimate: So. Miss 21 – 42 Nebraska.
My Pick: So. Miss +28 @ -110 for 2u

[guy Fawkes]

Throwing it in without formatting:

Dri Archer was, and is, Kent State. Kent State is coming off the best season in school history having gone 11-3, losing in the GoDaddy.com Bowl to Arkansas State 17-13. Dri Archer, behind a solid O-Line, rushed for 1429 yards on 159 attempts (9.0 YPC) also catching 39 passes for an additional 561 yards. Archer scored 20 touchdowns, accounting for just under a third of Kent State’s total points (140:463). Coming into last week game, Dri Archer was generating a lot of hype and Kent State reporters were calling for the Heisman before the team even hit the field. Dri Archer came out on the field, ran three plays and hurt his leg. As of right now, he is showing as Questionable.

Bowling Green is one of those teams that I’m riding until the wheels fall off; a bit like Louisiana Tech last year, but without the Colby Cameron aspect and a real defense. Bowling Green returns the (tied for) most starters in FBS football at 19, having lost a DL and a relevant, but not dominant RB. The Falcons are having a bit of confusion at QB right now, having started Schilz against Tulsa, but removing him after four attempts and installing Matt Johnson who had a disappointing showing going 11/23 for 151 yards and in interception. That being said, the passing game isn’t where the Falcons gameplan resides, but with a solid running game (by committee). Bowling Green has three (arguably five) RBs that come in and out of the game keeping fresh legs churning forward.

Last year, Kent State came to Bowling Green and broke hearts winning 31-24, with Bowling Green driving on the last two drives and eventually turning the ball over at the Kent 17 and in the endzone to end the game. This all after Dri Archer rushed for 241 yards on 17 carries.

Anyway, here’s some charts (ripped off from Phil Steele) before the wrap up:

Returning Starters:

RK	TEAM	CONF	TOTAL	OFF	QB	RB/FB	REC/TE	OL	DEF	DL	LB	DB's	K	P
1	Bowling Green	MAC	19	10	1	1	4	4	9	3	2	4	1	1
98	Kent St	MAC	11	6	0	1	3	2	5	3	1	1	0	1

Returning experience chart:

	TOTAL	SENIOR	SENIOR	SENIOR	% LTR	% YDS	% TKL	OL CAR
RANK	Team	XP PTS	ST’RS	2 DEEP	EXP PTS	RET	RET	RET	STS
5	Bowling Green	78.9	9	2	68	78.1	91.6	86.2	72
116	Kent St	47.2	12	4	63	68.3	63.4	42.5	38

Last week Kent State survived a scare against Liberty University 17-10, while Bowling Green dominated Tulsa 34-7. If Dri Archer plays, this game is much closer. Without Dri Archer, this line is completely wrong and I would make it closer to BG -13.

Score estimate: With Archer out: Bowling Green 27 – Kent State 14. With Archer in: Bowling Green 33 – 24 Kent State. Either way I like Bowling Green here, but I’m going to wait for Archer’s status before going large. For now Bowling Green -7.5 @ -110 for 2u (will be upgrading as Archer's status becomes clear).