1. #1
    weatherhawg
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    I'm back! NCAAF 2013 Season long picks

    After a year long hiatus, I've decided to start back to posting weekly picks again... Hopefully I can contribute to some of the excellent discussion I've seen on this site in the past couple years... Good luck to everyone!

  2. #2
    weatherhawg
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    Picks for Week 1:

    Arkansas -10
    over ULL
    Oklahoma -21 over ULM
    4 team parlay: South Carolina ML, Oklahoma ML, Arkansas ML, Auburn ML (pays 1.2:1)

    Other leans: Texas -42, Utah State +2.5, Maryland -22

  3. #3
    weatherhawg
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    Stellar weekend for me... Hoping I can keep it up. 3-0 on plays and really wish I had jumped on Maryland but oh well.

    OU's defense looked solid. Current plan is to bet them whenever their opponent is running a spread offense (read: W.Virginia) and lean toward betting against them when they play against a team with a solid rushing attack (read Texas). Arkansas looks better than advertised, sharp on offense and better fundamentally on d. Hoping for some value later in the season against SEC competition.

    Early leans for week 2:
    Arkansas St. +14 over Auburn
    Washington St. +14/ML over USC
    San Jose St. +21 over Stanford
    Central Arkansas ML over Colorado
    Virginia +24 over Oregon
    OU -21 over W. Virginia

    4 teamer ML parlay (of the following options below):
    Northwestern ML over Syracuse
    Michigan St. ML over S. Florida
    OU ML over W. Virginia
    Missouri ML over Toledo
    Indiana ML over Navy
    Points Awarded:

    MANIER08 gave weatherhawg 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  4. #4
    weatherhawg
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    More leans. Doing more research and definitely won't play all of these...

    Tennessee/WKU over 56
    Auburn/Arkansas St. Under 62
    Texas -7.5 over BYU
    Virginia ML over Oregon (very small play...this is a tricky one but if Virginia can be physical and play aggressive on defense hopefully they can keep it close. Long travel is a disadvantage to Oregon. Also ~10:1 odds if Virginia wins...)
    South Florida TT under 11 vs Michigan State

    Tennessee ML over WKU

  5. #5
    jaykarrels
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    Your oregon play is wishful thinking. Oregon only losing games at the end of the season

  6. #6
    weatherhawg
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    Yeah... I tend to favor teams whose defense is their strong suit. Still haven't pulled the trigger though and may just leave that game completely alone...

  7. #7
    weatherhawg
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    Locked in a few plays for this weekend:

    Florida -3 over Miami
    WKU/Tennessee over 58
    Auburn/Arkansas St. Under 61
    Sam Houston St. +37 over Texas A&M
    South Florida TT under 10.5
    Central Arkansas +13, ML over Colorado
    South Carolina +4 over Georgia

    Parlay (pays 5 to 4):
    Northwestern ML over Syracuse
    Michigan State ML over S. Florida
    Oklahoma ML over W. Virginia
    Indiana ML over Navy
    Tennessee ML over WKU

    Many more plays compared to last week but my biggest investment is in the parlay. South Carolina is a purely situational play given Georgia's last minute loss last week and Spurrier's overall success against the Bulldogs in his career.

    Central Arkansas is #5 in the FCS. 20 returning starters from last season and probably playing in its biggest game in that program's history. Colorado is at home coming off a big win themselves but I suspect this game will be competitive throughout. Also considered playing the over (63).

    Made money last year betting against Auburn's TT each game and hoping I can find something similar with S. FL this week against Mich. St.

    Two more leans: Arkansas St. +10.5 and S. Alabama +6. I have questions about Arkansas St. front 7 on defense...otherwise I see it as an easy cover and possible upset.

  8. #8
    MANIER08
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    Great thread! I will be going over a few of your picks myself! Keep it up! GL...

  9. #9
    weatherhawg
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    Thanks Manier! Let's cash these bitches! GL to you too...feel free to provide input on these picks...

  10. #10
    weatherhawg
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    Went ahead and got WKU +4.5 and ML (+210) for the second half. Really surprised with how little Tennessee has moved the ball so far in this game. Hopefully Tennessee will hold on for the win.

  11. #11
    weatherhawg
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    Rough day so far. Didn't need to hedge WKU play with 2nd half bets... Convinced that Florida was the right side in that game but that's football....

    Two more plays:
    Parlay: Indiana ML, K-State ML, and Tulsa ML. (Pays 5:4)
    Washington St +14 over USC

  12. #12
    weatherhawg
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    Rough weekend continued. Should've stayed away from Indiana. And Central Arkansas had the lead by 7 in the fourth driving deep into Colorado territory before throwing a pick 6. Swung the whole game and screwed my cover and ML bet.

    Early leans for next week:
    Mississippi State/Auburn under anything higher than about 50
    Alabama ML over Texas A&M
    Ohio State/Cal over

  13. #13
    weatherhawg
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    More leans for this weekend:

    Still leaning toward the under in Mississippi State/Auburn game. Based on my own 'eye' test (I can be biased...) I feel that Mississippi State is the better team overall. Problem with backing them is that their offensive line play has been subpar this season. Defense is playing up to its potential finally after underachieving last year (when is the last time Ok State has been held scoreless in a half???). And now they play an Auburn team who's passing attack (although improving) still may prove to be a liability against a stronger defense. State can win this game but ultimately I think it boils down to their offensive line play and if Auburn can dominate upfront like Oklahoma State did. State +6 and under 51

    Normally I stay away from games that get a lot of attention from the media/public and Alabama/A&M fit this category. However...this has the feel of one of those games where Bama comes out and dominates like in previous opening games and conference openers (the Georgia blackout game in 2008 comes to mind although I'm sure there are others that fit this bill too...). Considering a first half play on Alabama....

    Still need to do research on Southern Miss but they will test Arkansas' defense through the air in a way they haven't been tested before (81 passing attempts through two games this season). FCS Samford exposed a few problems with Arkansas defense last week. Eagles' defense not very good at stopping the run. I envision a scenario where this game could go over 49.

    Ole Miss runs a lot of read option similar to BYU did last week to the tune of 550 yards rushing against the Horns....but they also like to run play action passes out of the read option as well. Certainly Texas will have made some adjustments this week to prepare for this attack (we hope???) but Ole Miss is a better downfield passing threat that BYU was. Additionally, I feel that Ole Miss has some weaknesses both in the front 7/interior DL and secondary that Texas can exploit. Lots of unknowns in this one but currently leaning Texas -2.5 and over 64.5...

  14. #14
    dymd3z
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    No play for me on the Auburn game. Went to the Ark State game and I will be back down there this weekend when we host Miss State. This will be a good game for Auburn and with it being there 1st SEC opp for the season I just don’t see them going down. I may be wrong here but with all I have been reading and hearing on the radio (JOX) this week they are hype and ready to take on a struggling State team who hasn’t named there starting QB for this game yet and with all the distractions coming out today from YahooSports I will stay away from any side..

    Great job with your other pics and I will be tailing ya!

  15. #15
    weatherhawg
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    Thanks for the input dymd3z...

    I bet these latest allegations end up resulting in a minor slap on the wrist for those involved. Right now the NCAA is in a bit of a quandary bc each of the major conferences are demanding changes. Long story short I just don't think reports like these (or even the SI report on Oklahoma State) mean automatic penalties levied by the NCAA like they would have even a decade ago. But that's just my speculation from looking at things as an outsider and interested fan of college ball...

    Don't be surprised if this game is close. State's struggles haven't been with the qb and I suspect either qb would be serviceable for this game. Oklahoma State shut Miss. State down because of their defensive line play....especially after the first quarter of that game. They simply dominated and won the battle upfront. IMO State's o-line play is the only missing link as far as them being a solid top 25 team and challenging to finish in the upper half of the SEC west by season's end. Also I doubt Auburn will score enough to make this more than a one-possession game, which is why I like State at +6 (really liked them at +7)

    Have fun at the game... Need to do a bit more research before making the picks final (especially Southern Miss' passing offense) plus I may be adding Tulsa/OU under and a couple more games...

  16. #16
    weatherhawg
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    Call me crazy but all also be looking very hard at Kentucky +13.5 and ML. Given how this season has gone so far, Kentucky may end up being Louisville's toughest competition all season.

  17. #17
    weatherhawg
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    Locking in a few plays for tomorrow:

    Kentucky +14.5 over Louisville (I feel this game will come down to one possession)
    Kentucky ML over Louisville (worth a small shot)
    Kentucky TT over 23
    Alabama -8 over Texas A&M (as the old folks would say: Bama gonna beat A&M 'like they stole something')
    Mississippi State +6 over Auburn (feel like State is overall the better team... Just need to fix their o-line issues and they should be fine...)
    Mississippi State ML over Auburn
    Mississippi State/Auburn under 50
    Arkansas -23 over Southern Miss (I feel that the Hogs may make a few mistakes in the secondary defending the pass but ultimately Southern Miss lack of balance offensively combined with Arkansas' pass rush should help them make the cover...)
    Arkansas TT over 37

  18. #18
    weatherhawg
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    Other leans:

    Vanderbilt +14 over SCarolina
    Cal +14.5 over Ohio State
    Ohio State/Cal over 66
    Tennessee +28 (back door...UT has positional advantages along both lines in their favor)

  19. #19
    weatherhawg
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    Terrible week last week. Lost both ML bets on KY and Miss State but was correct on both lines. Missed on Arkansas...but again, watch for this team to open up the pass game either against Rutgers or at home against A&M in two weeks. As long as they have their starting qb healthy (shoulder bruise in first quarter against Southern Miss) I think they'll surprise someone...

    Early leans:
    Arkansas PK over Rutgers, Ark/Rutgers under 45.5 (both starting qbs doubtful, Ark back-up is a walk-on)
    LSU -17.5 over Auburn
    Maryland -6 over West Virginia
    Baylor -29 over UL Monroe
    K State +4 over Texas (Big problems for the Horns if Ash is still out...)
    Clemson/NC State under 66

    ML Parlay:
    Florida ML over Tennessee
    Mississippi State ML over Troy
    LSU ML over Auburn
    Syracuse ML over Tulane

  20. #20
    weatherhawg
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    Locked in an ML parlay:

    Florida, LSU, and Mississippi State. Pays 1:2

    Other plays:
    Arkansas ML over Rutgers (small... Lots of uncertainty here but like the fact that Hogs have advantage on O line and D line)
    Tennessee TT under 14.5
    Florida -16 over Tennessee
    Baylor -30.5 over UL Monroe

    Wanted to bet LSU -17 but weather may be a factor which probably favors Auburn. Pass for now...

  21. #21
    weatherhawg
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    Won the parlay, but Tennessee's late TD score screwed two of my bets. Hogs also lost a 17 point 4th quarter lead (a really bad bet in hindsight given how easy Rutgers moved the ball at times in the first and fourth quarters...). Hogs will have problems against teams with average-to-above-average passing attacks...

    Baylor -30.5 was one of the easiest bets I've ever made. Baylor is a covering machine so far this season... Covered this line by the end of the first quarter.

    Lots of early leans for next week:
    Oklahoma ML over Notre Dame
    Middle Tennessee +22 over BYU (auto fade after big rivalry game... MTSU a live dog?)
    Oklahoma State -21 over W. Virginia (huge spread for a road team but WV has problems on offense)
    South Alabama +17.5 over Tennessee (too many points)
    LSU +3, ML over Georgia (Tigers should be able to run and pass on Georgia... Plus they're a strong defensive team)
    Troy -10.5, ML over Duke (and over)
    Southern Cal +5, ML over Arizona State (and under)

    Will be looking for a line soon for A&M/Arkansas. A&M's soft run defense combined with this being their first road contest could spell an Arkansas cover if the line is double digits (anywhere over two TDs)

  22. #22
    weatherhawg
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    Adding Alabama -16 as a lean. This line should be closer to -21...

  23. #23
    weatherhawg
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    Locking in two plays this morning...

    Ok State -19 over W. Virginia
    S. Carolina/Miami ML parlay (pays 1:2)

    Will revisit for more picks after the morning games...

  24. #24
    King_croz
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    looking like OK st -19 might me a big miss... they are playing sloppy

  25. #25
    weatherhawg
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    Yeah a huge miss. Several turnovers/special teams plays against Ok State but with the way WV's defense is playing this one really had no chance. Surprised at how well their playing.

  26. #26
    weatherhawg
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    Next plays:

    Alabama -13.5 over Mississippi
    Alabama TT over 35
    Arkansas +14 over Texas A&M

    Mississippi players have been vocal about their upset chances today but I just don't see it. Even if they put up a few points, there's a big talent discrepancy and enough weaknesses in the rebels' defense that Bama should win comfortably.

    Arkansas +14 is a situational play. A&M's first road game of the season and they underperformed last year in a similar situation. A&M's offense is explosive but defense is suspect especially. Very small bet but look for Hogs offense to try to control the clock and produce long drives. Their degree of success on offense will go a long way in determining who will cover. A&M field goal kicker problems shouldn't be overlooked...

  27. #27
    weatherhawg
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    Early leans next week:


    Illinois +10/ML over Nebraska
    Michigan State ML over Iowa
    Arkansas + anything over ~10
    Auburn ML over Mississippi
    Mississippi State +9.5 over LSU (will be a one possession game)
    Maryland +16 over Florida State
    Arizona State ML over Notre Dame (when is the last time a ranked home team was underdogs to an unranked visiting team???)


    ML Parlay
    Oklahoma ML over TCU
    Oklahoma State ML over Kansas State
    Georgia ML over Tennessee

  28. #28
    weatherhawg
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    I've been looking over the Arkansas/Florida matchup. Line currently sits at Florida -11. Seems as if the Hogs will face their stiffest test of the season offensively against a Florida defense allowing only ~200 yards of offense to opponents per game. The Hogs finally opened up the playbook and threw for 282 against A&M last week. I was a bit surprised at how A&M's defense contained the Hogs rush attack at times but Hogs ultimately ended up with 200+ rushing. I thought it was interesting to see how Hogs OC Jim Chaney used formation shifts presnap to catch a young A&M front 7 out of proper alignment for a few nice gains on the ground.

    To cap this game, I'm referring back to the last time Hogs OC Jim Chaney faced a Muschamp coached Gators team (Florida @ Tennessee LY). Tennessee's offense scored 20 points on 344 total yards, but their last 6 possessions resulted in five punts, 4 three-and-outs, and one interception. This came against a very high powered passing offense led by QB Tyler Bray. Hogs have more balance this year than Tennessee did last year, but starting QB Brandon Allen is only a redshirt soph. and will be in his first road start against a very hostile SEC environment in Gainesville. Also, I expect a relatively well-coached Gators D to adjust to pre-snap formation shifts much better than A&M did, which may limit the Hogs ground game some.

    Florida's offense relies on an efficient ground game, but this is where I sense the Hogs will provide their toughest test of the Gators offense all season. The Hogs are stout against the run (minus the A&M game, which I figure to be more of a schematic problem because of having to defend Johnny Football). Where Florida will have to attack is through the air on short-to-intermediate passing routes (see Rutgers/Arkansas matchup) to move the football. This goes against the run-based attack Florida likes to employ to an extent...but new starting junior qb Tyler Murphy has been efficient passing the ball so far against SEC competition and also appears to have some scrambling/running ability as well.

    Florida may also have some home-team overconfidence due to facing a team on a two-game losing streak. They're also in a look-ahead situation with LSU on deck next week in Baton Rouge.

    Long story short, strongly considering Arkansas +11 and under 43. I can envision a scenario where the Hogs offense struggles some...especially if they aren't able to hit at least a few passes downfield for big gains. I can also envision a scenario where Hogs defense steps up and limits Florida's rushing attack, forcing them to throw.

  29. #29
    Huckleberry Pig
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    Quote Originally Posted by weatherhawg View Post
    I've been looking over the Arkansas/Florida matchup. Line currently sits at Florida -11. Seems as if the Hogs will face their stiffest test of the season offensively against a Florida defense allowing only ~200 yards of offense to opponents per game. The Hogs finally opened up the playbook and threw for 282 against A&M last week. I was a bit surprised at how A&M's defense contained the Hogs rush attack at times but Hogs ultimately ended up with 200+ rushing. I thought it was interesting to see how Hogs OC Jim Chaney used formation shifts presnap to catch a young A&M front 7 out of proper alignment for a few nice gains on the ground.

    To cap this game, I'm referring back to the last time Hogs OC Jim Chaney faced a Muschamp coached Gators team (Florida @ Tennessee LY). Tennessee's offense scored 20 points on 344 total yards, but their last 6 possessions resulted in five punts, 4 three-and-outs, and one interception. This came against a very high powered passing offense led by QB Tyler Bray. Hogs have more balance this year than Tennessee did last year, but starting QB Brandon Allen is only a redshirt soph. and will be in his first road start against a very hostile SEC environment in Gainesville. Also, I expect a relatively well-coached Gators D to adjust to pre-snap formation shifts much better than A&M did, which may limit the Hogs ground game some.

    Florida's offense relies on an efficient ground game, but this is where I sense the Hogs will provide their toughest test of the Gators offense all season. The Hogs are stout against the run (minus the A&M game, which I figure to be more of a schematic problem because of having to defend Johnny Football). Where Florida will have to attack is through the air on short-to-intermediate passing routes (see Rutgers/Arkansas matchup) to move the football. This goes against the run-based attack Florida likes to employ to an extent...but new starting junior qb Tyler Murphy has been efficient passing the ball so far against SEC competition and also appears to have some scrambling/running ability as well.

    Florida may also have some home-team overconfidence due to facing a team on a two-game losing streak. They're also in a look-ahead situation with LSU on deck next week in Baton Rouge.

    Long story short, strongly considering Arkansas +11 and under 43. I can envision a scenario where the Hogs offense struggles some...especially if they aren't able to hit at least a few passes downfield for big gains. I can also envision a scenario where Hogs defense steps up and limits Florida's rushing attack, forcing them to throw.
    with you on this. WPS. You go to the a&m game? I was there, had a great time

  30. #30
    weatherhawg
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    I missed it. But was glued to ESPN :-) I heard the environment was electric...

  31. #31
    NeilV
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    Quote Originally Posted by weatherhawg View Post
    Early leans next week:


    Illinois +10/ML over Nebraska
    Michigan State ML over Iowa
    Arkansas + anything over ~10
    Auburn ML over Mississippi
    Mississippi State +9.5 over LSU (will be a one possession game)
    Maryland +16 over Florida State
    Arizona State ML over Notre Dame (when is the last time a ranked home team was underdogs to an unranked visiting team???)


    ML Parlay
    Oklahoma ML over TCU
    Oklahoma State ML over Kansas State
    Georgia ML over Tennessee
    Arizona State ML over Notre Dame (when is the last time a ranked home team was underdogs to an unranked visiting team???)
    It's not at Arz St home. It's in Jerry Jones' palace in Arlington, TX

  32. #32
    weatherhawg
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    NeilV You're right. I recognized that after I posted... May be leaving that game alone anyway because of questions about Arizona State's defense...

  33. #33
    NeilV
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    weatherhawgs, very nice analysis of the Hogs. I feel the Hogs will not be able to score against Gators (10 points max) and Hogs porous pass defense will be a big problem and that will allow Murphy to enjoy his field day (Nova of Rutgers is a mediocre QB but had his career days vs Hogs twice) Hogs will keep it close in 1H and fall apart in 2H due to their weak depth and extreme weather in South Florida. BOL

  34. #34
    vyomguy
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    You have some good picks this week....rarely I see good picks in this forum. Most of my picks matches with yours.

    Looking at your picks...you are one of the sharp guys here.

    Keep posting more. SBR needs more sharp guys.

  35. #35
    weatherhawg
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    NeilV I disagree. Hogs secondary actually did a halfway decent job defending the pass against A&M last week...there were times when Manziel had no one to throw to downfield. Some substantial improvement compared to the breakdowns they had against Rutgers. Florida manages its offense by avoiding 3rd and longs, but what will happen when they're forced in 3rd and long for once? If the Hogs can stand tall against the run like I think they will, they'll be in that type of down and distance more often. It's a better matchup in favor of the Hogs than most realize IMO.

    Agree with you on Hogs scoring. They will have to keep a very low score to cover. I capped them at 13 points scored (barring turnovers or big special teams) which lends even more credence to the under. Perhaps a 20-13 final? Even 27-13 goes under the total...

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