Very excited about college football being back in action. I've been studying this card for a few weeks and have definitely isolated a few plays that I like.
One play in particular jumps out at me, strictly from a mathematical viewpoint. The Badgers of Wisconsin are a 44- point favorite over UMass, with the total set at 52- points. My instinct is to play the Minutemen of UMass and also play the game to go OVER the total. 2 separate plays, not a parlay. If UMass scores even 4 points in the game, I cannot lose both bets. (ie, 49-4) Sure I could split and lose my vig, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.
Wisconsin has a new coaching staff so I can't imagine they're hitting on all cylinders yet. Even against a tomato can team, this is a lot of points to cover on opening day. UMass will likely put up more than a field goal.
UMASS +44-
UMASS/WISCONSIN - OVER 52-
It's largely a hedge play, but there is a much higher percentage of me winning both plays than losing both........so I'm willing to risk the vig.
As I said, I've got more glamorous picks in store but this one is in play.
Gonna add these 2 Thursday night games to my weekly card.....
UTAH -3 over UTAH STATE --- The Aggies hadn't beaten the Utes since 1997 until they popped them in OT last year in Logan. State does return a lot of starters but after last year's success they lost their Head Coach to Wisconsin. It's gonna be a daunting situation for the new staff. Utah is historically very tough at home and with big revenge in mind I will lay the short price.
FRESNO STATE -11 over RUTGERS --- The Bulldogs are also a very tough team at home. They return 16 starters from last year's squad, 8 on offense and 8 on defense. Rutgers meanwhile returns only 6 on offense and 4 on defense. Their stop squad was great last year but their best players have moved on, including 2 DB's and an LB that got drafted. The late night west coast start won't help either. Fresno will shred them through the air. All Bulldogs here.