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Originally Posted by Smutbucket
week 9 ncaaf results: 7-6 +2.8 units
every week seems to be a bs backdoor in the last few seconds...getting used to it....still profitable week....
just getting started on nfl card now gonnna be a late night will post in a couple hrs....
this what I got so far might add one or 2 in the morning.....already 1-0 +1 unit on week 8 nfl because of Thursday night game
NFL Week 8:
Bengals -5 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
2 team 6 pt Teaser. Broncos -5.5 and Cowboys +9 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
Dolphins +7 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Pitt/Oak Over 40 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Denver Team Total Over 35.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Adding
Bills +11 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units
Bills Team Total Over 18.5 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units
Great call on Oregon State TT under, Smut. You were right and boy was i wrong. BOL today pal.
Week 8 NFL Results: 4-4 +2.1 units
oh man....what a bueatiful looking ncaaf card....locking these gems in early.....
Week 10 Ncaaf Card:
Georgia -2.5 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
UNC -2.5 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Oregon State -5.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Miami +21.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Michigan State -4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Liking the Michigan St. game myself. The line in the FSU/Mia game was getting my interest, but it feels weird and suckerish. With FSU having a Frosh QB and the intensity of the game how can't you like the points. But 20+ ?? What's your angle on this Smut? Just a shyt ton of points? Also was checking into the Oregon St./USC game. Don't think USC can keep pace with this squad in a short week of prep. I actually like it the best so far.
Ya, well first warning I am a born and raised UM fan and its impossible for me not be a homer. I love betting on my team, makes a great fuking weekend when you win money and your team wins, and Im not one of those dumbasses who believe in jinxes...anyways heres my take on em:
Miami is severly underrated coming into this game by the media, every football analyst will say Miami doesn't deserve to be in the top 10....(and in the same breath talk up ohio state) because of their last 2 games....now I didn't watch the wake forest game, but I did watch unc game and the amount of injuries in that game was ridiculous....duke was avging 10 yards a run (like he does in almost every game) before he left the game, and you had morris hobbeling around on 1 leg. morris seems to be one of those qbs that cant play thru an injury very well because he looked awful. wasn't stepping into his throws or anything.
FSU on the other hand is SEVERLY OVERRATED since the Clemson beatdown. one could argue though that Clemson beat themselves. fumbling opening kickoff their offense was playing in panic from behind mode from the beginning. then going down 10-0, fsu put on an all out blitz on a playaction that took way too long to develop and as soon as boyd turns around he gets hit and fumbles and its returned for a TD. boyd at that point was looking awful, like he always does against better defenses that put a lot of pressure on qbs, people seem to forget the awful outings hes had against teams that were able to put pressure on him over the last few years (south Carolina, Virginia tech) and deemed him a "great qb" for the 50-75 pts a game he was putting up against shitty teams that couldn't cover or put any pressure on the passing game. then the Clemson defense just looked like shit letting, a small little skinny post on their own 20 yard line went for 65 yards because of terrible tacking.....anyways Clemson had no hope at that point, taj boyd/Clemson isn't a team that can come back and win the big games, you know how easy it is to get pressure/blitz on a team that is down by 20 pts with absolutely no run game? a simple miscommunication led to an easy INT before the end of the half, and then fsu came right out and drove down field to start 3rd qtr, of course with the help of poor defensive tackling.
Miami has proven they can come back from behind and win, and not just thru airing it out and big plays but by running the ball with one of the best offensive lines in the country. combine that with the speed of duke Johnson and the power of dallas Crawford you got yourself a REAL OFFENSE. yes a real offense that isn't one dimensional, and an offense that doesn't need a completely broken down play to be extended by some bs missed tackles that winds up in the endzone. james Winston arm doesn't impress me either, he had plenty of shitty throws in that game. I think the veteran morris will show up large and not make the mistakes hes made in the past now that he knows they can run and now that his ankle is supposed to be 100% healthy.
also I give a big edge to Golden > fisher, golden actually turned around the temple program that was 3-31 the three years before he arrived. all jimbo fisher has done is win a lot of games against inferior teams, benefiting from the favorable schedules fsu always has. no big challenges, no big tests. golden is also 2-0 ATS vs fisher.
this game in my opinion will be nothing like the fsu/Clemson game, fsu will have to defend the run and wont be able to put pressure on morris like they did against boyd. this will be a close game, if mistakes are made on miamis end early (and If fsu capitalizes) we can easily catch a backdoor with 21+....Im probably gonna add a unit to it depending on movement and put a half unit on the ML just for the hell of it before the weeks end.....
ya Im really liking Oregon state too by atleast a TD, in the Stanford game even with the front 7 of stanfords defense dominating the game, mike riley was still able to make some 2nd half adjustments and move the ball/get points and make it a close game. mannion looks much improved from last season, and can really shred the weaker defenses in the pac12....I see this game being very much like the usc/asu game, like you said by 3rd/4th qtr Oregon state will start to pull away in a high scoring affair. usc also one of those teams that are constantly over-valued by books so they can cash in on all the rich homers betting on them in so cal.
have a real good feeling bout this weekend fellas. loving a lot of games. other strong leans I have is the under in bc/vetch, also leaning bc, but think I like under better depended on line, also iowa/whisky under and leaning wash st and auburn but haven't looked into these games much yet.
Last edited by Smutbucket; 10-30-13 at 02:53 AM.
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Nice insight to your train of thought. Take it easy on my Buckeyes! lol I live in Akron, Ohio. If Morris can keep it together, we have a winner. Duke is a beast as is Carlos Hyde. (had to get that in there) Need a good week hope this is the one I've been waiting on. GL Smut
Complete NCAAF Week 10 card:
Georgia -2.5 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
UNC -2.5 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Oregon State -5.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Miami +21.5 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Michigan State -4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Virginia Tech/BC Game Total Under 41 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Boston College +11.5 and Auburn -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Miami Team Total Over 20 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Miami ML (+1100) Risking .5 units to win 5.5 units
Wake Forest +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Wisconsin/Iowa Game Total Under 48 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
UCLA 1st Half -17 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Northwestern +6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Good write up on Miami. I don't think fsu is severely overrated, maybe a little lol
but I hope Morris can keep his shit together. He made some terrible throws in the wake game and in unc game as well. If he plays a perfect game being no interceptions and duke can run well, we should cover the 21.
UM winning outright will be awesome, know a lot of kids going to that game from the U
argh ya. maybe alittle exaggerated on the "severly over-rated" ......rough day. was up 4+ units before night games....still think Winston is very over-rated and it showed he cant throw the ball down the field well at all that's why I still rank many sec teams above fsu (i would take bama/south Carolina/lsu/ and even texas a&m and a healthy Georgia over fsu if they played each other) ....Miami playcalling was pretty shitty, and they just couldn't stop the run. oh well.
results:
6-7 -.15 units need to limit plays. i just really loved a lot of the games,need to focus on the easier cashes and not been such a homer. live and learn.
NFL Week 9:
Ravens -2 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
Saints -6.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Redskins -1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Vikings +10 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
KC -3 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
Adding:
Colts pk em (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Week 9 results : 4-2 +.7 units
locking this one in now while I can get this number....wont last
NCAAF Week 11:
Auburn -7 (-120) Risking 2.4 units to win 2 units
Looking like a weekend full of underdogs....2 tmrw night looking solid....
Week 11 Ncaaf Card:
Auburn -7 (-120) Risking 2.4 units to win 2 units
Oklahoma +15 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Stanford +10.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Smut I like the Stanford pick. That game last week was a lot closer then the score indicates. UCLA lost its MO after the fake punt by the Harlem Ducks. What effect will losing that D linemen be on the Trees. Because, I think this will be won on the line by Stanford. If they can't control the line, they will not be able to keep up. They have to stop the Ducks before the get going. Penetrate the backfield and disrupt the play before it gets going. The Ducks are fast but, not as fast as years past. Also, I know nothing about Baylor and wonder how you can like this kid that QB's Oakie. He has not shown up in a game of relevance. Can Oakies D stop this onslaught?
Week 11 Ncaaf Card:
Auburn -7 (-120) Risking 2.4 units to win 2 units
Oklahoma +15 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Stanford +10.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
LSU +12.5 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
LSU ML (+400) Risking .5 unit to win 2 units
Minnesota -2.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Purdue Team Total Under 14.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
2 team 6 pt Teaser. Miami -1 and Iowa -9 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Maryland/Syracuse Under 56.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Arizona State -6.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 2 units
New Mexico State Under 17.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
UCLA +2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Oklahoma????? or are you referring to Oklahoma State? Good luck!
ya no that was Oklahoma from Thursday night....I had them and Stanford...just didn't grade ....shoulda known it was a bad pick...no way blake bell could run an offense to keep up with as many points as baylors
thanks fellas, looking for a big week
sorry for late posts. don't like this card much.
NFL Week 10 Card:
Den/SD Over 57 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Texans +4 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Dolphins -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Colts -1 and Saints -.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Day Results: 6-6 +.3 units
Day Results: 1-3 -2.3 units
Betting Review:
NCAAF:
Week 1 : 7-5 + 4 units
Week 2 : 6-3 + 3.85 units
Week 3 : 6-4 + 1.55 units
Week 4 : 3-5 - 1.3 units
Week 5 : 7-3 + 3.2 units
Week 6 : 7-7 +.35 units
Week 7 : 5-11 -5.45 units
Week 8 : 6-9 -2.5 units
Week 9 : 7-6 +2.8 units
Week 10: 6-7 -.15 units
Week 11: 6-6 +.35 units
Ncaaf Total: 66-66 +6.7 units
NFL:
Week 1: 4-5 + 0 units
Week 2: 3-6 - 5.85 units
Week 3: 1-8 - 8.8 units
Week 4: 3-3 -.95 units
Week 5: 6-2 + 4.8 units
Week 6 : 1-4 -3.5 units
Week 7 : 4-2 +1.8 units
Week 8 : 4-4 +2.1 units
Week 9 : 4-2 +.7 units
Week 10: 1-3 -2.3 units
NFL Total: 31-39 -13 units
Thread total: 97-105 -6.3 units
Time to really focus in NFL and end the season off in the positive. going thru a bit of a sophomore slump for posting picks but hopefully Ive regrounded my self and re aligned my chi.
went ahead and locked in my boys msu, notice a lot of "cappers" are on the bandwagon now.....just remember whose been on them all year and since the beginning ....
Week 12 NCAAF:
Michigan State -6 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
Clemson -10 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Adding:
Stanford -3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
this line should move a lot against us....lock it in now
NFL Week 11 Card:
Titans/Colts 1st Half Under 21.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Week 12 NCAAF:
Michigan State -6 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
Clemson -10 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
UCF -16.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Stanford -3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
UNC +1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Northwestern -2.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
W.Virginia/Kansas Over 47 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
6 pt 2 Team Teaser: South Carolina -6.5 and Georgia +9 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Cal +3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Adding:
Nc State/BC Under 54 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
debatin a couple others, including asu and wash st.
Adding.
Georgia +4 (-120) Risking .6 units to win .5 units
Georgia (+130) Risking .5 units to win .65 units
NFL Week 11:
Titans/Colts 1st Half Under 21.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Jaguars +15 and KC +14 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
49ers +4 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Texans -9 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Panthers -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Bills +2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Adding.
2 team ML parlay: Texans + 49ers (+200) Risking .5 units to win 1 units
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