[Mac4Lyfe]

Another year, another dollar. Football is back. I will post my early leans and my plays once again this year. I'll keep CFL and NFL separate plus have my bolded (favorite) plays.

I am done with 5 Dimes, so most of my bets/lines will come from Heritage or Pinny.

Here's my early leans for this week. My leans will be in grey. Once I lock and load them, they will be in black as a play.

I like the dogs to bite this week as offenses try to figure things out a bit. The Under should be looked at in most games as well.


Ouch - the formatting on Heritage sucks...

UNLV vs Minnesota 8/29/2013 4:00PM - (PST) Spread +14 -108 for Game

Bowling Green vs Tulsa 8/29/2013 4:00PM - (PST) Spread -3 -122 for Game

Mississippi vs Vandy 8/29/2013 6:15PM - (PST) Spread -3 -122 for Game

Hawaii vs USC 8/29/2013 8:00PM - (PST) Spread +24 -129 for Game

Western Michigan vs Mich St 8/30/2013 5:00PM - (PST) Spread +28 -108 for Game

Florida Atlantic vs Miami 8/30/2013 5:00PM - (PST) Spread +31½ -108 for Game

Central Michigan vs Michigan 8/31/2013 12:30PM - (PST) Spread +31 -108 for Game

Louisiana Tech vs NC State 8/31/2013 9:30AM - (PST) Spread +13½ -108 for Game

Temple vs ND 8/31/2013 12:30PM - (PST) Spread +29½ -108 for Game

Toledo vs Florida 8/31/2013 9:20AM - (PST) Spread +24 -120 for Game

Syracuse vs PSU 8/31/2013 12:30PM - (PST) Spread +8 -108 for Game

LSU vs TCU 8/31/2013 6:00PM - (PST) Spread -5 -106 for Game

Northwestern vs Cal 8/31/2013 7:30PM - (PST) Spread -5 -115 for Game


Remember, these are just my leans. I have not capped these games thoroughly. I will lock in my Thursday games the night before (or early that morning), same for Fri/Sat/Sun.

All the best on a enjoyable/profitable football season...

[alabasterf]

Good to see you back, Mac! I tailed some of your picks last year and found that to be quitw profitable. I'm with you on several of those leans. Good luck to you this year!

[Killer_Demo]

GL Mac...

[Urbanwildlife]

Enjoying the sunshine in Aruba amigo, but I will see you at the pay window from across the miles! We will party it up together in the very near future!

[gojetsgomoxies]

hey welcome back....

i am with you on many of those games.

only two i disagree with are bowling green and hawaii... USC-hawaii probably NO PLAY

am i correct that you are on bowling green vs. tulsa?


edit: as you said with the formatting it's hard to tell what's your pick..... but i think it's the team on the left and whether the points are shown as giving or taking.

also, didn't realize hawaii is +24... like it a bit more.

[gojetsgomoxies]

hadn't posted it on it, but i think FAU is a good UNDER THE RADAR team... people don't seem to like them, but i see a bunch of reasons.. FIU on the other hand looks shaky and sometimes i think the teams gets moderately confused.

[groovybrandone]

mac is back! lets do it again this year!

[Mac4Lyfe]

Yeah, the formatting sucks. I'm going to have to throw it into Excel and make it clearer. Yes, the team on the far left is who I'm leaning.

Lane Kiffin tends to take his foot off the gas and not try and embarrass teams for some reason. Plus Kiffin is going to 2 qb rotation in which they will alternate series which is always tricky in the first game. On top of all that, the players will be slap happy about being in Hawaii and going through the motions.

Bowling Green versus Tulsa is going to be an incredible matchup. 2 teams that will be pushing to win their conference. I like Bowling Green because they are at home, they have the better defense and special teams. Tulsa's offense is nice but first game jitters favor defenses IMO. BG should be able to run on Tulsa and that may be the difference in the end. Tough call either way but I think the line may be off by 4 or 5 points.

I'll have more writeups tomorrow.

hey welcome back....

i am with you on many of those games.

only two i disagree with are bowling green and hawaii... USC-hawaii probably NO PLAY

am i correct that you are on bowling green vs. tulsa?


edit: as you said with the formatting it's hard to tell what's your pick..... but i think it's the team on the left and whether the points are shown as giving or taking.

also, didn't realize hawaii is +24... like it a bit more.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Good to see you GJGM - I want to really, really like FAU versus Miami but still crunching the numbers. You have to think both teams honoring Schnellenberger will create tension for a good battle. I'd like to think Miami would be looking ahead to UF the next week but teams don't really look ahead in the first game of the year. Miami's offense is what scares me. They can put it up in bunches. Their defense is shaky/trash and that's what I'm looking to so that FAU can put up a few scores and get an easy cover.

hadn't posted it on it, but i think FAU is a good UNDER THE RADAR team... people don't seem to like them, but i see a bunch of reasons.. FIU on the other hand looks shaky and sometimes i think the teams gets moderately confused.

[Mac4Lyfe]

UW - I got to make the next trip with you. You are my idol

Enjoying the sunshine in Aruba amigo, but I will see you at the pay window from across the miles! We will party it up together in the very near future!

[Mac4Lyfe]

Good to see you guys as well... Let's get it.

Good to see you back, Mac! I tailed some of your picks last year and found that to be quitw profitable. I'm with you on several of those leans. Good luck to you this year!

GL Mac...

mac is back! lets do it again this year!

<br>

<br>

[Romanov]

guy is good. glad to see him back.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Romanov - good to see you man

guy is good. glad to see him back.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Remember folks - these are just leans, so be careful because I have gone the other way in the past. Once I lock in, I feel good about the pick. My bolded plays were very good last year. I hope I can keep it up.

[Mac4Lyfe]

[Mac4Lyfe]

[Blannewk]

Glad your back Mac!! Thanks for taking the time to cap last year, your thread was my first go-to on sbr last season for sure!

Lets cash early this year big guy

[gojetsgomoxies]

MAC, thanks for the color on Miami-FAU. had no idea about schnellenberger. that does argue for closer game i think. It will fire up FAU and miami probably will probably think it's a stupid distraction

for those who don't know, MAC was on fire last year at times like i've never seen anyone else. and if i'm not mistaken he's a former player at a huge football powerhouse.

[guy Fawkes]

Hey Mac, good luck as always this season! With you on a couple, but I have a lot more questions heading into this season than most so I'm walking on eggshells for a few weeks until I can get a few games/stats for some teams.

I gotta say though: I noticed you aren't trying to top week 1 from last year taking Texas State for +13500? I saw UMass hanging around +55000 territory...

[easysaid]

Dude, so glad your back definitely top 3 NCAAF capper on this site.

[Hawaii]

The MAC is BACK

[pimpinaces]

What up Mack! Lets Kill em this year!

[KornhuskerJ]

Yeah, the formatting sucks. I'm going to have to throw it into Excel and make it clearer. Yes, the team on the far left is who I'm leaning.

Lane Kiffin tends to take his foot off the gas and not try and embarrass teams for some reason. Plus Kiffin is going to 2 qb rotation in which they will alternate series which is always tricky in the first game. On top of all that, the players will be slap happy about being in Hawaii and going through the motions.

Bowling Green versus Tulsa is going to be an incredible matchup. 2 teams that will be pushing to win their conference. I like Bowling Green because they are at home, they have the better defense and special teams. Tulsa's offense is nice but first game jitters favor defenses IMO. BG should be able to run on Tulsa and that may be the difference in the end. Tough call either way but I think the line may be off by 4 or 5 points.

I'll have more writeups tomorrow.

I couldn't agree more! Plus Tulsa is losing a number of OL and DL. I am sure with their track record they will replace with them with talented players but, with BG returning so many starters and it being a home game, I think Tulsa may be in trouble. Plus, we here in Nebraska know that Green has a lot of potential but just as much if not MORE downside (hence his Turnover issues).

[Mac4Lyfe]

Let's get it started, Let's get it started in hear...


Thursday's picks locked and loaded.

First game: UNC at #6 USC

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Football - 133 North Carolina/South Carolina under 29½ -110 for 1st Half
2 Football - 133 North Carolina/South Carolina under 57½ -110 for Game
3 Football - 133 North Carolina +12½ -108 for Game
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

USC is 5-1 ATS in it's last 6 games against the ACC... UNC is 1-5 ATS in it's last 6 road games. USC is 7-2 ATS in it's last 9 games. Under is 4-0 in USC last four games vs ACC. USC is 5-2 ATS in it last non conf games. Spurrier is 22-1 SU in season openers.

USC has had great success against spread offenses the last 2 seasons (Clemson, Mizzou). USC shut those teams down.

Everything points to this being a USC cover but I like 2nd year coaches. Fedora should settle in this year and the defense hopefully is better. I think UNC's Renner will put up enough points for a close cover but not enough points for this game to go over. USC's receivers are a bit banged up so hopefully the passing game struggles. I'm also hoping for a lower scoring game since it's the first of the season. Something like a 28-16 type of game. My only concern here is turnovers and special teams plays in favor of USC. That and Shaw going GOAT.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Next game: UNLV at Minny

----------------------------------------------------
4 Football - 135 UNLV +14 -114 buying ½ for Game
----------------------------------------------------

This should be a bolded play but too much uncertainty with UNLV's QB Nick Sherry and turnovers.

Temperatures have soared in the Twin Cities. It should be around 90 degrees at kickoff. This will favor UNLV as Minny will try and substitute a lot. UNLV has lost 22 straight road games so the ML is not real attractive at +405 but I'll throw a little just for shits and giggle.

Minny's offense is full of starters but the receivers are inexperienced, this could turn them 1 dimensional which is a strength of UNLV. RB Cornett should give Minny trouble and hopefully eat clock and allow play action. Minny's special teams is also green and I see them making mistakes which will give UNLV the cover. These teams seem closer than 2 TDs.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Next game: Tulsa vs BG

---------------------------------------------------------------
5 Football - 138 Bowling Green -3 -110 for 1st Half
6 Football - 138 Bowling Green -4 -108 for Game
7 Football - 137 Tulsa/Bowling Green over 50 -110 for Game
---------------------------------------------------------------

3 Bolded Plays



This is going to be a great game. 2 teams on the rise. These plays are basically for 2 reasons. First, Tulsa Senior Safety Demarco Nelson is academically ineligible. His replacement is a former walk on and only played on special teams last season. His backup is a redshirt freshman who is also a walk on. The other backup safety is also a redshirt freshman. 3 out of the 4 starters in Tulsa's secondary are either freshman or sophomores.

Second, UT's defensive line is also very inexperienced. This spells a defense that may not be able to stop BG.

[Mac4Lyfe]

This next game I really, really, really love but could be painful in the first week of football. As such, I must maintain proper money management all season.

Akron at UCF

Another 2nd year coach here. Terry Bowden at Akron. Did I say I love 2nd year coaches?

-----------------------------------------------------
8 Football - 139 Akron +23 -118 buying 1 for Game
9 Football - 139 Akron +1030 for Game
------------------------------------------------------

I'm not sure why I bout a point on a bolded play but somehow that's what I bet. I hate 22.5 for some reason anyway.

I kept looking at this game and everyone loves UCF. All the money is on UCF. I thought about waiting until game time to make the play but the more I look at this game the more I see value.

Akron will be led by QB Kyle Pohl making his first start. I like this kid, I think he is a baller. He will be going up against a new UCF defensive backfield. Brandon Alexander will be in a new position and several freshmen and redshirt freshmen will be in the 2 deep. Akron loves to throw the ball. They threw the ball ~50 times a game last year. UCF's secondary could be very vulnerable. They looked like trash the last few weeks.

Last year, Akron was hot garbage against the run, they were 109th in the country in rush defense, giving up 210 yards per game on the ground. BUT the Dline will be better and deeper. Bowden focused on beefing up the line, especially after UCF kicked them around last year. 2 guys transferred from Colorado State, starters, CJ James and Nordly Capi were both born and raised in Orlando. I saw them play in HS and they both are legit. Then they picked up FSU transfer Henry Orelus. The defensive line is going to be nice. You got to think they are going to want to bring it coming home to Orlando/Florida. I can't wait to see Storm Johnson of UCF try to run against Akron's defensive front.

On offense they picked up an OT from Pitt and a RB from FSU too. Pohl is serviceable and could cause UCF's defense trouble.

You have a team with a chip on their shoulders after getting routed last year, you have players returning to Florida and you have Terry Bowden who may be the next coach at UCF. He has a chip on his shoulders as well.

I expect Akron to look much, much better on the defensive line. I think they will limit UCF's running game.

You have an improved Akron Dline, deep, very good LB's, quality corners = good defense. On offense, QB, WR's are good, good rushing. The only question is can the offensive line produce/protect.

Did I say I love 2nd year coaches???

I love the +23 but I'm going on the ML +1030 for a good bit too. I feel good enough to grade it

[Mac4Lyfe]

Next up: Utah State at Utah

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10 Football - 141 Utah State +3 -113 for Game
--------------------------------------------

Utah State is on a 7 game win streak. They led 91% of the time last year. They jumped on teams out the box and was a great 1st half team. 10 of their 13 games they held their opponents scoreless in the 1st quarter and 3 in the first half. Lot's of seniors on Utah State. The only thing stopping me from hammering this into a bolded play is they have a new coach and they gave up some leads last year.

Dennis Erickson is OC at Utah, so they should get an offensive boost. Utah State should have a big advantage in the kicking game. If you can get a prop bet on a block kick, I'd put some money on it.

Utah State first half should be a good play too but new coach and Erickson at Utah may have something up his sleeve to start the game. So I'm passing on that.

[blackeyeshamus]

big mack like a motherfxxkin' freight train.
thanks for the insight, and good luck, sir.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Ole Miss at Vandy

--------------------------------------------------------------------
11 Football - 143 Mississippi/Vanderbilt under 54 -120 buying 1 for Game
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Short write up. Vandy will be without Chris Boyd, so OM can key on Matthews. Vandy offense could be stagnant here.

Ole Miss defense ranked first in the SEC in tackles for losses and 2nd most sacks. Vandy had the 6th best passing defense in the nation.

2 good QBs going up against 2 good defenses. I'm banking on the defenses and first game jitters on offense.

[guy Fawkes]

Next up: Utah State at Utah

--------------------------------------------
10 Football - 141 Utah State +3 -113 for Game
--------------------------------------------

Utah State is on a 7 game win streak. They led 91% of the time last year. They jumped on teams out the box and was a great 1st half team. 10 of their 13 games they held their opponents scoreless in the 1st quarter and 3 in the first half. Lot's of seniors on Utah State. The only thing stopping me from hammering this into a bolded play is they have a new coach and they gave up some leads last year.

Dennis Erickson is OC at Utah, so they should get an offensive boost. Utah State should have a big advantage in the kicking game. If you can get a prop bet on a block kick, I'd put some money on it.

Utah State first half should be a good play too but new coach and Erickson at Utah may have something up his sleeve to start the game. So I'm passing on that.

For what it's worth Mac, I'll paste here what I wrote in another thread:

Be careful here, Utah State lost Coach Gary Anderson to Wisconsin, hard to say "well-coached" just yet. Last year Utah started Jordan Wynn at QB against Utah State which allowed USU to jump to a 13-0 lead before the Utes brought in Hayes and tied the game 20-20 to head into overtime. I do agree Keeton is an amazing QB for the Aggies and likely the most talented player on the field in this one.

I have a little more research to do on this game right now, but despite living in Logan I'm leaning Utes to cover here.

Finished the research on this one earlier than expected to see if I could find the ray of hope...nope. Without restating from above or throwing too many numbers into this little reply (I'm not convinced early season posters read responses anyway), the biggest statistic I'll throw in is: The Aggies are losing 74.9% of receiving yards and 78.8% of receiving TDs from last year.

Utah -3 (-105 @ 5Dimes) is probably going to be my biggest play tomorrow and likely the weekend. That being said, I'm always stepping lightly at the beginning of the season and can still wish the other side luck.

Additionally, Utes' QB Hays that nearly came back against the Aggies last year is likely to be back-up to Travis Wilson, a huge improvement over last year's Jordan Wynn.
Good luck whichever side you fall on Mac

[Mac4Lyfe]

My last play is going to be the USC at Hawaii game

I'm going with Hawaii but I'm waiting on the line to go up. It's currently at +23.5 but by kickoff, west coast bettors are going to push the line up some.

Silas Redd is out, USC secondary inexperienced even though talented. Hawaii has many returners (which is not really a good thing here) but helps for the first game of the season.

USC with duel QBs changing each possession has to affect timing and puts pressure on both guys.

Norm Chow should know Kiffen andthis USC team well and how to attack it on offense. He is also a 2nd year coach. Did I mention I love 2nd year coaches?

USC players making the trip to the island means possible distraction.

Hawaii is trash but Kiffin tends to have pity on garbage teams. I don't see him wanting to beat down his former mentor.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Appreciate the input GF. I really like the leadership at USU. I think Utah is somewhat green, with too many changes that often spells early struggles. I think USU will win in the trenches on both sides of the ball, which is the biggest reason I like them Add to all that, I expect Utah's kicking game to be poor.

USU had a tendency to let teams back into games. With senior leadership, I think they will tighten that up and step on teams throats.

For what it's worth Mac, I'll paste here what I wrote in another thread:






Additionally, Utes' QB Hays that nearly came back against the Aggies last year is likely to be back-up to Travis Wilson, a huge improvement over last year's Jordan Wynn.
Good luck whichever side you fall on Mac

[9ersPride]

Hey Mac..im new here..heard u r one of the best college capper

[dilaudid8]

Mac4 gl nice write up on your game's