1. #1
    HuskerExpat
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    HuskerExpat's 2013 College Football Thread

    Posting my picks. I'm happy to hear opinions, etc., or to have someone bash my horrible weeks. Frankly, I don't expect most people to even read this thread, and am doing it mostly for my own purposes.

    My approach:

    1. Find value in the numbers, be it early or late in the week.

    2. Each bet is a either 1 unit or a fraction of 1 unit.

    3. I don't believe in any "best bet of the week" b.s. If my line is varies from the actual line (in a significant enough way), then there is value there and I bet it. Some Saturdays that might mean 30 bets others it might mean 5.

    4. I'll try to keep a running total of the number of units up or down for the year.

  2. #2
    HuskerExpat
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    Games for Thursday, 8/29/13

    I always believe the early weeks have the softest lines. This year is no different as I have 6 bets for the first Thursday night.

    1. Minnessota -14 (vs. UNLV): 1/2 unit
    2. Tulsa +3.5 (at Bowling Green): 1 unit
    3. UCF -21 (vs. Akron): 1/4 unit
    4. Utah -2.5 (vs. Utah St.): 1 unit
    5. Vanderbilt +3 (vs. Ole Miss): 3/4 unit
    6. Rutgers +9.5 (at Fresno St.): 1 unit
    Last edited by HuskerExpat; 08-28-13 at 02:11 PM. Reason: Foolishly typed wrong date in title.

  3. #3
    HuskerExpat
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    And you can see, I find safety in numbers. My approach is not to score one big win each week but to make a bunch of bets with a small total +EV.

  4. #4
    HuskerExpat
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    Quote Originally Posted by HuskerExpat View Post
    I always believe the early weeks have the softest lines. This year is no different as I have 6 bets for the first Thursday night.

    1. Minnessota -14 (vs. UNLV): 1/2 unit
    2. Tulsa +3.5 (at Bowling Green): 1 unit
    3. UCF -21 (vs. Akron): 1/4 unit
    4. Utah -2.5 (vs. Utah St.): 1 unit

    5. Vanderbilt +3 (vs. Ole Miss): 3/4 unit
    6. Rutgers +9.5 (at Fresno St.): 1 unit
    A pretty good start to the season. A bit of bad luck with the Vandy game and I seem to have overvalued Tulsa (they have real issues in the defensive line). But overall, I'm very pleased with the start.

    Season Total: +0.825 units

    http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/
    Last edited by HuskerExpat; 08-30-13 at 10:27 AM. Reason: correcting math; inserting spreadsheet

  5. #5
    HuskerExpat
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    Friday 8/30/13 Games

    Two small bets tonight:

    1. Western Michigan +28 (at Michigan St.): 1/4 Unit
    2. SMU +5 (vs Texas Tech): 1/2 Unit

    Season Record: 4-2
    Season Results: +0.825 units

    http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

  6. #6
    shopbar picks
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    Nice night Thursday. Good luck tonight.

  7. #7
    shopbar picks
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    What do you like tomorrow. I'm leaning. Nc st. Western Kentucky. ULM. Okie St. Arkansas. And Penn State. Any thoughts?

  8. #8
    HuskerExpat
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    Quote Originally Posted by HuskerExpat View Post
    Two small bets tonight:

    1. Western Michigan +28 (at Michigan St.): 1/4 Unit
    2. SMU +5 (vs Texas Tech): 1/2
    Proof that Mich St is not there yet.

    Season record: 5-3
    Season return: +0.57

  9. #9
    HuskerExpat
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    I do like WKU and Oki St. I'd stay away from away from Penn St. I'm definitely taking Syracuse in that game. I'll post my picks in the morning..:

  10. #10
    HuskerExpat
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    Saturday, 8/31/13

    First Saturday, and lots of bets, as usual:

    1. NC State (-14 vs Louisiana Tech): 3/4 unit
    2. FIU +21 (vs Maryland): 1/4 unit
    3. VTech +21 (vs Alabama): 1/2 unit
    4. Troy -3 (vs UAB): 1 unit
    5. WKU +4.5 (vs Kentucky): 1 unit
    6. Miami OH +20.5 (vs Marshall): 1 unit
    7. Oklahoma St -11 (vs Miss St): 1 unit
    8. Oklahoma -21.5 (vs ULM): 1/2 unit
    9. Washington St +14 (vs Auburn): 1 unit
    10. Syracuse +8.5 (vs Syracuse): 1 unit
    11. New Mexico -3.5 (vs UTSA): 1 unit
    12. California +6 (vs Northwestern): 1.5 units

    Season Record: 5-3
    Season Return: +0.57 units

    http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/
    Last edited by HuskerExpat; 08-31-13 at 12:13 PM. Reason: add record and link

  11. #11
    shopbar picks
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    Good call on the orangemen. AS a sker fan my self .Wyoming, will be ranked at season end. That was a good football team. Will bet them alot this year. And maybe that game will drive the husker's line down. And also betting against SDSU and Oregon state.

  12. #12
    HuskerExpat
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    Quote Originally Posted by HuskerExpat View Post

    1. NC State (-14 vs Louisiana Tech): 3/4 unit
    2. FIU +21 (vs Maryland): 1/4 unit
    3. VTech +21 (vs Alabama): 1/2 unit

    4. Troy -3 (vs UAB): 1 unit
    5. WKU +4.5 (vs Kentucky): 1 unit
    6. Miami OH +20.5 (vs Marshall): 1 unit
    7. Oklahoma St -11 (vs Miss St): 1 unit
    8. Oklahoma -21.5 (vs ULM): 1/2 unit

    9. Washington St +14 (vs Auburn): 1 unit
    10. Syracuse +8.5 (vs Syracuse): 1 unit

    11. New Mexico -3.5 (vs UTSA): 1 unit
    12. California +6 (vs Northwestern): 1.5 units
    Not a great day, but not horrible either.

    Season Record: 11-8-1
    Season Return: +1.34 units

    http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

  13. #13
    HuskerExpat
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    Quote Originally Posted by shopbar picks View Post
    Good call on the orangemen. AS a sker fan my self .Wyoming, will be ranked at season end. That was a good football team. Will bet them alot this year. And maybe that game will drive the husker's line down. And also betting against SDSU and Oregon state.
    I really wanted to take Wyoming and the points in that game, but I generally don't bet against Nebraska. My one concession of loyalty in sports gambling. haha. Anyway, their QB looked pretty good; very accurate. I'm not sure if it was him carving up our defense or our defense giving away too many opportunities, but it is going to be a very long season if we continue to play at a level where we give up 581 yeards offense to Wyoming. It's been my experience that the Huskers are almost always over-valued, so I hardly ever get a chance to bet on them. And the last bet I made on them was the Big 10 Championship game last year. Enough said...

  14. #14
    shopbar picks
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    Yeah the title game was brutal. Even Larry mentioned it on history TV show. My top 2 plays are OU and Ohio St. This week. And a 7 team parlay. OU. Ohio State. Oregon. Michigan. Wyo. Texass. And Nebraska. Think they respond back in a big way

  15. #15
    shopbar picks
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    Give me your thoughts. And where you from. I'm north of Omaha

  16. #16
    HuskerExpat
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    My preliminary line in both of those games is -13 OU and -29 Ohio St. So I wouldn't take either OU or OSU in those games. WVU and SDSU had really bad games last week, but those lines are probably a bit of an overreaction to those games...

  17. #17
    HuskerExpat
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    Monday, 9/2/13

    Once Pitt went to +10.5 this became a play:

    1. Pitt +10.5 (vs. Florida St.): 3/4 unit

    Season Record: 11-8-1
    Season Return: +1.34 units


    http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

  18. #18
    HuskerExpat
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    Quote Originally Posted by HuskerExpat View Post

    1. Pitt +10.5 (vs. Florida St.): 3/4 unit
    That Florida St QB is pretty damn good....

    Season Record: 11-9-1
    Season Return: +0.52 units


    http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

  19. #19
    HuskerExpat
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    Thursday, 9/5/13

    1. Florida Atlantic +20.5 (at ECU): 1/2 unit

    Season Record: 11-9-1
    Season Return: +0.52 units


    http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/
    Last edited by HuskerExpat; 09-05-13 at 02:29 PM. Reason: added record

  20. #20
    HuskerExpat
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    Quote Originally Posted by HuskerExpat View Post
    1. Florida Atlantic +20.5 (at ECU): 1/2 unit
    Season Record: 12-9-1
    Season Return: +1.02 units




    http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

  21. #21
    HuskerExpat
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    Anyone have any thoughts about Wake Forest vs. BC tonight. I have BC as roughly a TD favorite. Anyone have any thoughts why line is only -3?

  22. #22
    Hotlanta Steam
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    Quote Originally Posted by HuskerExpat View Post
    Anyone have any thoughts about Wake Forest vs. BC tonight. I have BC as roughly a TD favorite. Anyone have any thoughts why line is only -3?
    I think because of the lack of supreme talent on both teams, the oddsmakers are looking at experience... Tanner Price is a senior and a very serviceable QB. Wakes best WR Campanaro is also back playing tonight and the defense was pretty stout last week vs Presbyterian (only like 150 yards total)... while holding a below average FCS school to minimal yards may not mean a lot it still means that you make tackles and can cover receivers.

    BC beat a very good FCS squad in Nova last week but did it with a bit of smoke and mirrors. They scored on a fake punt and got 4 turnovers... Nova also missed on a 4th and 1 from the BC 1....

    I don't think BC is a bad play by any means but Wake and Jim Grobe's offense are never fun to prepare for.

  23. #23
    HuskerExpat
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    Friday, 9/6/13

    One bet tonight, I like B.C. by about a TD, so my bet tonight is:

    1. Boston College -2.5 (vs. Wake Forest): 3/4 unit;

    Season Record: 12-9-1
    Season Return: +1.02 units

    http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

  24. #24
    smack3179
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    BC by by at least a TD!!

  25. #25
    HuskerExpat
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    Quote Originally Posted by HuskerExpat View Post
    1. Boston College -2.5 (vs. Wake Forest): 3/4 unit;

    Season Record: 13-9-1
    Season Return: +1.77 units


    http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

  26. #26
    shopbar picks
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    Nice call on BC. Whats the plays for tomorrow.

  27. #27
    HuskerExpat
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    Still early in the year with soft lines, so there are a ton of bets today:

    1. Oklahoma St. -27 (vs. UTSA): 1/2 unit;
    2. Ball St. -8 (vs. Army): 1 unit;
    3. Cincinnati -7.5 (vs. Illinois): 1 unit;
    4. USF +23 (vs. Michigan St): 1/2 unit;
    5. Miami OH +17 (vs. Kentucky): 1 unit;
    6. Michigan -4 (vs. Notre Dame): 3/4 unit;
    7. Ohio -4 (vs. North Texas): 1 unit;
    8. Navy +12.5 (vs Indiana): 1 unit;
    9. Syracuse +16.5 (vs. Northwestern) 1 unit;
    10. Air Force +9.5 (vs. Utah St.) 1 unit;
    11. North Carolina -17.5 (vs. Middle Tennessee): 1 unit
    12. Western Kentucky +12 (vs. Tennessee): 1/2 unit
    13. UTEP -6 (vs New Mexico): 1 unit
    14. Minnesota -15 (vs. New Mexico St.) 3/4 unit

    Season Record: 13-9-1
    Season Return: +1.77 units

    http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet

  28. #28
    HuskerExpat
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    Not a good start to the day, but there is time left....

  29. #29
    HuskerExpat
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    Quote Originally Posted by HuskerExpat View Post
    Still early in the year with soft lines, so there are a ton of bets today:

    1. Oklahoma St. -27 (vs. UTSA): 1/2 unit;
    2. Ball St. -8 (vs. Army): 1 unit;
    3. Cincinnati -7.5 (vs. Illinois): 1 unit;
    4. USF +23 (vs. Michigan St): 1/2 unit;
    5. Miami OH +17 (vs. Kentucky): 1 unit;
    6. Michigan -4 (vs. Notre Dame): 3/4 unit;
    7. Ohio -4 (vs. North Texas): 1 unit;
    8. Navy +12.5 (vs Indiana): 1 unit;
    9. Syracuse +16.5 (vs. Northwestern) 1 unit;
    10. Air Force +9.5 (vs. Utah St.) 1 unit;
    11. North Carolina -17.5 (vs. Middle Tennessee): 1 unit
    12. Western Kentucky +12 (vs. Tennessee): 1/2 unit
    13. UTEP -6 (vs New Mexico): 1 unit
    14. Minnesota -15 (vs. New Mexico St.) 3/4 unit
    Season Record: 21-16-1
    Season Return: +2.74 units


    http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spspreadsheet

    This week I was a few plays from where I wanted to be. My real problem was probably that I fell into the trap of believing Petrino was going to perform a miracle at WKU. My own power ratings said I should have bet Tennessee and not WKU and I foolishly ignored them. And I haven't given Northwestern enough credit (as well as my assumption that K Colter wouldn't play because of the concussion was wrong). Still, my goal is slow and steady forward progress. I'd like to make somewhere between 5-10% return on my bankroll each week and this week was only 2%. Hopefully next week will be a little better (or that I'll make up some ground on the NFL tomorrow, though historically NFL is not a source of big returns for me).

  30. #30
    shopbar picks
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    I'm hammering ucla. The Nebraska defense is terrible. Thanks to the coaching. Whats your thoughts.

  31. #31
    HuskerExpat
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    Quote Originally Posted by shopbar picks View Post
    I'm hammering ucla. The Nebraska defense is terrible. Thanks to the coaching. Whats your thoughts.
    Strictly based upon my power ratings, I like Nebraska. No way I'm betting it though. If I were going to bet, I'd be on UCLA too. Too many chokes by Nebraska to trust them. Their defense is very exploitable right now too.

  32. #32
    HuskerExpat
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    Thursday, 9/12/13

    1. Louisiana Tech, -7 (vs Tulane): 1 unit;
    2. Arkansas St, -7 (vs Troy): 3/4 unit.

    Season Record: 21-16-1
    Season Return: +2.74 units


    http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet

  33. #33
    HuskerExpat
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    Quote Originally Posted by HuskerExpat View Post
    1. Louisiana Tech, -7 (vs Tulane): 1 unit;
    2. Arkansas St, -7 (vs Troy): 3/4 unit.
    Ugly start to the weekend....

    Season Record: 21-17-2
    Season Return: +1.69 units




    http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet

  34. #34
    Hotlanta Steam
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    Quote Originally Posted by shopbar picks View Post
    I'm hammering ucla. The Nebraska defense is terrible. Thanks to the coaching. Whats your thoughts.
    I have a strong feeling you are going to regret that play at about 2:30pm tomorrow... The national media is jumping all over "Nebraska has a terrible defense" and not examining why... Nebraska had been trying to play a 2 gap system for the last several years but it requires a dominant D Line with fantastic brains and brawn... Suh was that guy and to a lesser extent so was Baker Steinkuhler... They have abandoned the 2 gap system and are just going to let the athletes play instead of think so much. Nebraska has a great secondary if the D Line does its job and contains the QB scrambles... Tomorrow after the game, a name you will know well is Randy Gregory... He is a potent potent rush end.

    I think Nebraska wins this by double digits... maybe even 20+ and UCLA struggles to score 25...

  35. #35
    HuskerExpat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hotlanta Steam View Post
    I have a strong feeling you are going to regret that play at about 2:30pm tomorrow... The national media is jumping all over "Nebraska has a terrible defense" and not examining why... Nebraska had been trying to play a 2 gap system for the last several years but it requires a dominant D Line with fantastic brains and brawn... Suh was that guy and to a lesser extent so was Baker Steinkuhler... They have abandoned the 2 gap system and are just going to let the athletes play instead of think so much. Nebraska has a great secondary if the D Line does its job and contains the QB scrambles... Tomorrow after the game, a name you will know well is Randy Gregory... He is a potent potent rush end.

    I think Nebraska wins this by double digits... maybe even 20+ and UCLA struggles to score 25...
    One of you was clearly right.

    I missed last weekend due to a family emergency. I'll be back to posting picks next weekend.

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