[ANDTHEWINNERIS]

MODIFYING AN OLD SYSTEM IN NCAA FOOTBALL:



The NCAA Football season is just around the corner. It is the most exciting
part of the year for bettors, as football takes center stage. I have enjoyed a
lot of success in NCAA Football, and this sport has its own theme. The NFL is a
contrary sport, where counter-intuitive thinking gets the money, while the NCAA
football gridiron beats to a different drummer, as it is a momentum sport.




Today's newsletter will look at a tweaked situation, and one that has just
one parameter, the betting line. Most gamblers like to bet on the good team
favorites, but that gets a lot of resistance once the line starts heading
towards 3 touchdowns.



Those thoughts inhibit good opportunities in college football, because of
any other lines available, in any other range, there is simply no value on a
line only basis. The sweet spot in NCAA football is on the heavy chalks, but not
the extremely heavy chalks.



What we are looking for specifically are teams that are favored by 20 to
27.5 points. These teams since 1980 in NCAA Football have gone:



927-750-29 ATS for a win rate of 55.3%. That is a huge edge when you
consider the fact that the only parameter is the line, and with over 1700 games
in the data set it is highly credible.



Last year this situation broke the bank at 50-27-1 ATS. While odds malers
tend to catch up with things, they have not caught up to this situation. It has
actually performed better in the last 5 years.



Since the onset of the 2008 season this situation stands in at 251-173-8
ATS for a win rate of 59.2%. Like a fine bottle of wine, it has gotten better
with age. It looks as though there may be up to 7 opportunities in week 1 of
this season. While this system over the past 32 years has been better from game
7 on where it is 372-266-12 ATS 58.3% as opposed to 555-484-17 53.7% through
game 6. It does however remain a solid choice in game 1 at 55.9%.



So there you have it, don't be afraid of heavy chalk, they have been
rewarding bettors since 1980!

[chunk]

Not big on this kind of stuff as I believe that each game stands alone and has its own unique set of variables. It does, however, seem more logical to me than the old 13-2 in their last 15 home openers kind of nonsense. I've argued with the modelers before that the game isn't 100% #'s.