Florida, Alabama back in battle for SEC title
There are just 18 games left before the bowl season begins, but that doesn't mean there isn't much football left to be played. Sixty of the most important college gridiron minutes this season will be played at the Georgia Dome this Saturday when No. 1 Florida takes on No. 2 Alabama for the SEC Championship. The Gators are 4 ½-point favorites to repeat as conference champs and return to the BCS Championship.
It’s always important to remember spreads are set based on the perceived difference between two teams. The number isn’t a prediction, but an assessment of the public’s collective attitude.
After all, the name of the game for sportsbooks is to haul in even action on both sides so as to minimize potential damages.
The opening spread for Saturday’s SEC Championship Game between No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Alabama is a perfect example of perception being oddsmakers’ guiding principle.
SEC Championship Game: Florida vs. Alabama (+4½)
Saturday – 4:00 p.m. (ET) CBS
The Gators opened (11-0, 6-5 ATS) as 5-point chalk for Saturday afternoon’s showdown with the Crimson Tide (12-0, 7-5 ATS) at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, but were giving 4½ points at most outlets as of Sunday night.
What’s wrong with this picture? Well, there’s nothing inherently wrong with the line in the sense that it isn’t a blown spot on behalf of oddsmakers. What’s interesting is in how much this year’s spread differs from the one on the board for last season’s SEC Championship Game between Florida and Alabama.
The Gators were 10-point favorites at most books when the schools met at the Georgia Dome last December 6, when the eventual national champions defeated the Tide 31-20 to cover for their many backers. No big deal, right? Alabama is viewed as a much-improved team this season, while Florida is perceived as having taken a step back.
Problem is, is it really the case that Alabama is better vis-à-vis Florida than it was at this time last year?
Bettors should remember it was the Tide, not the Gators, that went into last season’s SEC title game as the top team in the national polls. Alabama was undefeated heading into the game just like it is this year; Florida (which was supposedly better last season) had a loss under its belt before clashing with the Tide. If anything, you could argue the Gators were overvalued at the window for last year’s tilt.
Conventional wisdom is Florida’s offense isn’t what it was last year. Granted the Gators don’t have Percy Harvin or Louis Murphy anymore, but they still have one of the best offenses in the country, especially on the ground. Harvin didn’t play in last year’s game, when Tim Tebow went 14-of-22 for 216 yards with three touchdowns to go along with 57 rushing yards on 17 attempts.
It’s also the perception that Alabama has bridged the gap significantly on offense, with Greg McElroy under center in place of John Parker Wilson. The Tide have narrowed the divide, but not as much as squares would have us believe. The only offensive category where Alabama is close to being dominant is in rushing (13th nationally at 213.1 yards per game). Florida is sixth in that category (236.7 YPG), and is 12th in total offense (451.3 YPG) and 10th in scoring offense (36.5 PPG).
Running back Mark Ingram is the biggest reason the Tide are closer to the Gators offensively, but he has to be healthy for that to be the case. Ingram sat out with a bruised hip during Alabama’s game-winning drive in its 26-21 comeback win at Auburn (+10) in the Iron Bowl last Friday. He finished with only 30 yards on 16 carries in his worst performance of the season against the Tigers, and is listed as day-to-day for Saturday.
Tebow is also finding his stride coming into the SEC finale. Bettors should remember Tebow suffered a concussion this season, so there’s no doubt Urban Meyer leaned on the defense and the running game for the second part of the schedule. Tebow had his finest game of the season in Florida’s 37-10 win as 25 ½-point home chalk against rival Florida State last Saturday, going 17-of-21 for 221 yards with three TD tosses. The 2007 Heisman Trophy winner also rambled for 90 yards on 15 carries with a pair of rushing touchdowns in the rout.
Defensively the schools are among the best three units in the country along with Texas, which is likely to meet the Florida-Alabama winner in the BCS National Championship Game at the Rose Bowl on January 7. The Gators are stronger against the pass and the Tide are slightly better against the run, but consider this part of the matchup a wash.
With a 9-4 ATS record in its last 13 SEC games, Alabama has been a better wager on the road and at neutral sites this season, where they’re a combined 4-1 ATS. Florida is 3-2 ATS in its five games away from the Swamp this season.
There are just 18 games left before the bowl season begins, but that doesn't mean there isn't much football left to be played. Sixty of the most important college gridiron minutes this season will be played at the Georgia Dome this Saturday when No. 1 Florida takes on No. 2 Alabama for the SEC Championship. The Gators are 4 ½-point favorites to repeat as conference champs and return to the BCS Championship.
It’s always important to remember spreads are set based on the perceived difference between two teams. The number isn’t a prediction, but an assessment of the public’s collective attitude.
After all, the name of the game for sportsbooks is to haul in even action on both sides so as to minimize potential damages.
The opening spread for Saturday’s SEC Championship Game between No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Alabama is a perfect example of perception being oddsmakers’ guiding principle.
SEC Championship Game: Florida vs. Alabama (+4½)
Saturday – 4:00 p.m. (ET) CBS
The Gators opened (11-0, 6-5 ATS) as 5-point chalk for Saturday afternoon’s showdown with the Crimson Tide (12-0, 7-5 ATS) at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, but were giving 4½ points at most outlets as of Sunday night.
What’s wrong with this picture? Well, there’s nothing inherently wrong with the line in the sense that it isn’t a blown spot on behalf of oddsmakers. What’s interesting is in how much this year’s spread differs from the one on the board for last season’s SEC Championship Game between Florida and Alabama.
The Gators were 10-point favorites at most books when the schools met at the Georgia Dome last December 6, when the eventual national champions defeated the Tide 31-20 to cover for their many backers. No big deal, right? Alabama is viewed as a much-improved team this season, while Florida is perceived as having taken a step back.
Problem is, is it really the case that Alabama is better vis-à-vis Florida than it was at this time last year?
Bettors should remember it was the Tide, not the Gators, that went into last season’s SEC title game as the top team in the national polls. Alabama was undefeated heading into the game just like it is this year; Florida (which was supposedly better last season) had a loss under its belt before clashing with the Tide. If anything, you could argue the Gators were overvalued at the window for last year’s tilt.
Conventional wisdom is Florida’s offense isn’t what it was last year. Granted the Gators don’t have Percy Harvin or Louis Murphy anymore, but they still have one of the best offenses in the country, especially on the ground. Harvin didn’t play in last year’s game, when Tim Tebow went 14-of-22 for 216 yards with three touchdowns to go along with 57 rushing yards on 17 attempts.
It’s also the perception that Alabama has bridged the gap significantly on offense, with Greg McElroy under center in place of John Parker Wilson. The Tide have narrowed the divide, but not as much as squares would have us believe. The only offensive category where Alabama is close to being dominant is in rushing (13th nationally at 213.1 yards per game). Florida is sixth in that category (236.7 YPG), and is 12th in total offense (451.3 YPG) and 10th in scoring offense (36.5 PPG).
Running back Mark Ingram is the biggest reason the Tide are closer to the Gators offensively, but he has to be healthy for that to be the case. Ingram sat out with a bruised hip during Alabama’s game-winning drive in its 26-21 comeback win at Auburn (+10) in the Iron Bowl last Friday. He finished with only 30 yards on 16 carries in his worst performance of the season against the Tigers, and is listed as day-to-day for Saturday.
Tebow is also finding his stride coming into the SEC finale. Bettors should remember Tebow suffered a concussion this season, so there’s no doubt Urban Meyer leaned on the defense and the running game for the second part of the schedule. Tebow had his finest game of the season in Florida’s 37-10 win as 25 ½-point home chalk against rival Florida State last Saturday, going 17-of-21 for 221 yards with three TD tosses. The 2007 Heisman Trophy winner also rambled for 90 yards on 15 carries with a pair of rushing touchdowns in the rout.
Defensively the schools are among the best three units in the country along with Texas, which is likely to meet the Florida-Alabama winner in the BCS National Championship Game at the Rose Bowl on January 7. The Gators are stronger against the pass and the Tide are slightly better against the run, but consider this part of the matchup a wash.
With a 9-4 ATS record in its last 13 SEC games, Alabama has been a better wager on the road and at neutral sites this season, where they’re a combined 4-1 ATS. Florida is 3-2 ATS in its five games away from the Swamp this season.