[TPowell]

Northwestern is currently -5.5 over Cal on the road in Week 1. This is a huge mistake IMO

Cal returns 28 starts on the offensive line (an atrocious number), they are starting a redshirt freshman at QB more than likely, and they also lost 3 out of the 4 starters in the secondary. Not to mention the fact that they have a new coach this season.

Northwestern on the other hand returns virtually ever skill position player and MORE on the offensive line than Cal, even though they will still have struggles (40 returning starts on O-Line). They also return 7 starters on defense, once again more than Cal.


I capped this game at Northwestern -11 and that is giving Cal a generous home field advantage. Anybody have anything to add? I'll wait closer until kickoff to get down, but as long a I get better than -7, I'll be very happy

[capt kierkegaard]

I agree, it looks like one of those bait cars on TV. Nice escalade, fat rims door open and engine running and sure enough some farm animal with gold teeth and saggy pants jumps in and 5 min later...
Cal was bad last yr and from all indications hasnt improved (we will see however). NW was a very good team and everybody will be a year better. Good QB good coach and staff. and in addition the spread starts at 8.5 and then drops to 5 ????? Thats like the van with dark windows and lots of antennas across from the bait escalade.
Thats why they call it gambling huh? Ill be on NW, probably heavier w/ the ML..BUT HECK the door is open, engine running and ..im sure nobodys in that van...

[SamDiamond]

I love Northwestern here.

I have it higher than 11 too.

[BigdaddyQH]

I agree with what you say, but you should learn what a "Trap" line is. A "Trap" line would be 6 1/2, NOT 5 1/2. The fact is that Northwestern is 2-3 ATS as an Away Favorite in Fitzgeralds career. Cal is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the Big 10. They are also 6-1 in their last 7 home openers. So "on paper", Northwestern looks like a huge favorite, but in reality, maybe not.

[TPowell]

I agree with what you say, but you should learn what a "Trap" line is. A "Trap" line would be 6 1/2, NOT 5 1/2. The fact is that Northwestern is 2-3 ATS as an Away Favorite in Fitzgeralds career. Cal is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the Big 10. They are also 6-1 in their last 7 home openers. So "on paper", Northwestern looks like a huge favorite, but in reality, maybe not.

A trap line is any line that the public thinks is too low/high. They aren't just "swing" lines, that is absurd IMO

[Mac4Lyfe]

TPowell - I've been looking at this game closely as well. I like Northwestern as well and the line seems low.

I think this is one of those games where the buying public sees Northwestern, B10 and laughs. They think Cal at home, Pac10 and will fall for the trap.

I'm just wondering if the line will go down so I wait...

[PaperTrail07]

Northwestern by 17

[PaperTrail07]

Same...think they'd rather bury a buncha idiots in Vegas autopicking Cal vs Northwestern haha

TPowell - I've been looking at this game closely as well. I like Northwestern as well and the line seems low.

I think this is one of those games where the buying public sees Northwestern, B10 and laughs. They think Cal at home, Pac10 and will fall for the trap.

I'm just wondering if the line will go down so I wait...

[BigdaddyQH]

Obviously you people do not know what a real "Trap" is. A legitimate "Trap" is created by linesmakers at some shops and some wise guys to sucker the public into wagering on the wrong team. I do not see the linesmakers involved here at all, and I know that none of he wiseguys have jumped this line.

[TPowell]

Obviously you people do not know what a real "Trap" is. A legitimate "Trap" is created by linesmakers at some shops and some wise guys to sucker the public into wagering on the wrong team. I do not see the linesmakers involved here at all, and I know that none of he wiseguys have jumped this line.

Notice the trap is in parenthesis in the subject

[3runhomer]

Cal has some players...could be a tricky game here

[texhooper]

TPowell - I've been looking at this game closely as well. I like Northwestern as well and the line seems low.

I think this is one of those games where the buying public sees Northwestern, B10 and laughs. They think Cal at home, Pac10 and will fall for the trap.

I'm just wondering if the line will go down so I wait...

respectfully disagree mac, i think the public will be on northwestern here after their incredible ats season last year, and cal just being terrible and not expected to be much better. wouldn't be surprised to see a good percentage of the action on nw here.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Tex - I should have said that the linesmakers think the public will be on Cal. Why else would the line be this low to start??? Based on what NWU did last year and what they return versus Cal, shouldn't this be a double digit line? I think Vegas thinks that people are very short sighted. History tells them Cal is Cal and NWU is NWU. 2 teams at the lower levels of their respective conferences. The homer public may not even look at last years records. They'll think bad P10 team versus bad B10 team, oh, let's take the bad P10 team here with points.

Now, I fully expect the line to go up, so yes more bets will be on NWU but right now Vegas thinks there'll be more money on Cal relative to what we think. Currently, there's not a lot of action for this game but it appears most is on Cal right now.

[texhooper]

well someone up in the thread said this has come down from 8.5. i haven't been tracking this game so i don't personally know that for sure. i hear that this should easily be northwestern or no play, but this will be a really interesting game to track from a line/public perspective moreso than a lot of other opening day games.