[gojetsgomoxies]

i should probably update my pac 12 notebook, where i put alot of stuff and then left it.

i want to add a lesser conference and probably the 3 obvious candidates for me are MWC, MAC and sun belt. but sunbelt is changing. another poster likes the MWC.... i know the MAC somewhat well as i lived near buffalo during turner gill's time. so that's the conference i will choose.

what changes have there been to MAC in recent years? temple out/in (did they round trip?), umass in? MAC has a fair amount of geographic tightness so ohio, mich teams likely stay around?


so i'll start with ATS records the last 4 years.

N Illinois	60%	5.9
Kent State	55%	1.5
Bowling Grn	55%	0.7
Ohio	54%	0.7
Ball State	53%	-0.5
Toledo	52%	0.7
Miami (OH)	49%	-0.4
Central Mich	45%	-1.9
W Michigan	43%	1.2
E Michigan	42%	-3.3
Akron	40%	-5.1
Buffalo	39%	-1.8
U Mass	36%	-3.9

it's funny. all the teams at the top are much better than the teams at the bottom. makes some sense but it's ATS, so it should self-adjust somewhat.

a few team notes:

northern illinois has been really good the last few years and i get the sense that they're still under radar. and i think they were BCS last year (year before?)

kent is likely to fall way back this year.

central michigan has fallen like crazy. i see them 113 or similar in power ratings this year. brian kelly and/or lefavour (sp?) wasn't that long ago

buffalo has some nfl type talent returning. TB and OLB. so they could sneak up on people.

betting markets finally adjusted to how bad UMass was (and they probably got better too), but now they have low # of starters. so should be undersized, "deer in headlights" team again.

i like bowden in akron, but that's mostly opinion. thought he did well last year but doesn't really show up prominently in the #'s

[Killer_Demo]

Good stats moxies....there's value in small conferences

[gojetsgomoxies]

3 year (changed it from 4 year) home vs. road ATS

Akron	33%	50%	-17%
Ball State	38%	68%	-31%
Bowling Grn	50%	58%	-8%
Buffalo	41%	35%	6%
Central Mich	29%	37%	-7%
E Michigan	35%	53%	-17%
Kent State	59%	53%	6%
Miami (OH)	50%	47%	3%
N Illinois	69%	69%	0%
Ohio	50%	44%	6%
Toledo	50%	67%	-17%
U Mass	40%	33%	7%
W Michigan	56%	44%	12%

seems like road has been the way to go. nill has been good both places, kstate good at home. cmich has been a complete disaster.

[gojetsgomoxies]

similar.... 3 year avg. ats cover home vs. road...

3 Year ATS cover home/road
Akron	-7.7	-2.8	-4.9
Ball State	-4.7	4	-8.7
Bowling Grn	-1.5	1	-2.5
Buffalo	-2.4	-4.1	1.7
Central Mich	-8.4	-1.7	-6.7
E Michigan	-7	2.1	-9.1
Kent State	2	2.3	-0.3
Miami (OH)	2	-2.3	4.3
N Illinois	8.9	8.3	0.6
Ohio	0.5	-2.1	2.6
Toledo	-0.4	7	-7.4
U Mass	-3.6	-4	0.4
W Michigan	2.9	2.7	0.2

only really Nill been good ATS at home.