Play Number One:
Auburn +11 (-110) for 3 units
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10-18-09 06:05 PM #1
Pags' Plays 10/34
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10-18-09 06:14 PM #2
pags, thanks. good week last week.
where do i get the just opened lines without having to log-in?? thanks... pinnacle which i check most doesn't seem to have them yet.
EDIT: ok, i found themLast edited by polson22; 10-18-09 at 06:17 PM.
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10-18-09 06:15 PM #3
bookmaker is usually the first book to put out lines
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10-18-09 06:18 PM #4
dcbt, thank you very much!
Originally Posted by dcbt
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10-18-09 08:14 PM #5
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10-18-09 10:41 PM #6
How the hell Auburn is a 11 point dog to my Tigers ????????
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10-18-09 10:57 PM #7
4:30 PM Originally Posted by ZBOIZ
393 AUBURN +8-110
394 LSU -8-110
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10-19-09 12:54 AM #8
Are you guys caricatures of yourselves or do you not really know how he got the 11 ?
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10-19-09 02:16 AM #9
Line opened at 11 at Diamond and possibly Bookmaker as well. Originally Posted by pavyracer
4:30 PM 393 AUBURN +8-110 394 LSU -8-110
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10-19-09 06:20 AM #10
clowncar...can you explain how he got +11? i cant figure it out
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10-19-09 06:27 AM #11
He was waiting on the lines opening and jumped on it at +11, it opened at +11 at a few sportsbooks, Diamond had it at +11, and i think Bookmaker to, i saw it myself at Bookmaker at +10.
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10-19-09 06:59 AM #12
The problem at 7:05 pm when he posted the Auburn +11 there was no +11 at Bookmaker or Diamond.
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10-19-09 07:08 AM #13
11 lasted 3 minutes. 14 minutes later at 7:05pm central time it was down to 8.
excellent shopping but not a line anyone here could get. hopefully it'll go back up some
10/18/09 06:05:35pm
+8-10
-8-10
10/18/09 06:02:55pm
+8½-10
-8½-10
10/18/09 06:02:00pm
+9-10
-9-10
10/18/09 05:56:00pm
+10-10
-10-10
10/18/09 05:54:20pm
+10½-10
-10½-10
10/18/09 05:51:44pm
+11-10
-11-10
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10-19-09 07:31 AM #14
I am a SMU believer Mr. Pags. Good Call!!
Morrow
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10-19-09 08:19 AM #15
Was almost 80% of this thread edited out?
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10-19-09 08:29 AM #16
This is a perfect example of why it's important to understand lines and estimating lines. When you simply tail someone and do no advance work for yourself you're bound to lose value. That saying about the early bird catches the worm isn't just in fairy tales. While you can still win with later lines your percentages often will be seriously reduced.
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10-19-09 08:53 AM #17
I'll take Auburn at + nothing. Hell, Auburn might win this game....just my two cents...
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10-19-09 09:17 AM #18
pags has a lot of followers....amazing number of views of his threads! well i better keep an eye on this thread...
can anyone explain me what the 10/34 plays, meens?
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10-19-09 09:29 AM #19
Pags made a typo earlier in the season on the date and just said he would continue to post the wrong date, kind of like a rabbits foot thing.
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10-19-09 09:38 AM #20
Originally Posted by joanapoker
pags has a lot of followers....amazing number of views of his threads! well i better keep an eye on this thread...
can anyone explain me what the 10/34 plays, meens?
Pags is no longer at SBR,he is posting in another forum.....Already setting up shop.
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10-19-09 10:08 AM #21
My comment was deleted. Originally Posted by twincities77
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10-19-09 10:39 AM #22
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10-19-09 10:47 AM #23
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10-19-09 10:54 AM #24
so do we get a hint as to where? Originally Posted by Joe Dogs
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10-19-09 11:02 AM #25
Pags youre the man! I followed you with Utah State, Kentucky, and SMU. Thanks for all the work you do, my bookie hates you. I also hit on Arkansas, Mississippi St., Iowa, Houston, South Carolina, and missed on the Minnesota Game! Best week I've ever had so thank you and I'm looking forward to your picks and writeups this week, it makes my job a little less soul crushing.
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10-19-09 11:03 AM #26
same ole shit with pags. all his plays will be shit from matchy unless theres a great number (like the +11) at another book. even if the # only exists for few seconds, he ALWAYS and i mean ALWAYS says he has that number and bet it there. im not hating on the guy, he is a fine capper, but this is the same shit he has done for years. air bets with bogus #s and half of his shit at matchy never gets matched...why would it??? yet if the game wins, he still counts those units towards his record. good capper, but a big fukking dickhead whos ego cant handle it when he gets called out. no telling how many fukking ghosts the clown has either. guaranteed 90% of the views of his threads are from him, one way or another. same shit, lose games and then start airbetting more units so that those winning weeks pad the unit record.
by the way, over at that chump site he is at now, they dont take too kindly to you informing them that the dozens of new members posting in his thread are ghosts of his... i guess he is getting the "protection" from mods that he always wanted.
ahah goddamn, the guy is gone from here, yet he is still making ghosts just for this fukking thread...why in the fukk would someone join just to give him praise in a thread about him being gone from sbr.... you sir are a fukking moron
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10-19-09 11:11 AM #27
I actually better lines than what Pags had originally posted for the Kentucky and SMU games and the Utah State game he posted at +10 I got for +8.5 and still covered.
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10-19-09 11:22 AM #28
Originally Posted by raydog
jealous much?
the line was legit. it's what he got. if you are simply following pags, you didnt get the line on this one. either wait for it to go up, dont bet it, bet it smaller, or hope that the 2-3 point difference doesnt matter. it's up to the person betting, not pags
good for him getting a good line. that's what smart/sharp cappers do. and i'm not some pags ghost. you can find me at other forums like mj or eog...
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10-19-09 11:30 AM #29
Originally Posted by jefff
Exactly. Hating on someone for doing good work is bad enough. Accusing them of lying for no reason is ridiculous.
An earlier post says he airbets and that is also incorrect. He uses a system that has worked for him over the years where he is betting more units in the center of conference play and less units in the weeks at the beginning and end of the season.
The response to him getting a good line like the +11 should have been.
" Congratulations on getting that nice number , pags. Would you still play this game at the 8 that is currently available ?"
Betting at open is one of the most opportunistic and easiest ways to beat the closing line if you know what you are doing. Instead of hating , try learning.
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10-19-09 11:39 AM #30
i wouldn't be surprised if pags was the reason the line moved so fast from 11 down
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10-19-09 11:47 AM #31
Nothing was deleted, a lot of the non-football talk was moved to the Private Zone. Originally Posted by CaptainFurFace
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10-19-09 11:49 AM #32
It takes less money to move a line at open. The books are sensitive to lopsided action the first few minutes that the lines are available. It is very possible that he could have moved the line. Within the first sixty seconds of open , I tried to bet Auburn at +11 but it moved to 10.5. Instead of being angry that someone did better work than I did , I congratulate them. Instead of hating someone who is doing things in a smarter way than I am , I try to learn how to do it better myself.
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10-19-09 11:54 AM #33
you need faster fingers Originally Posted by clowncar
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10-19-09 12:00 PM #34
But the line was never +11 at 7:05 pm ET at any book. So if you tried to log in at your book 1 second after he posted this pick you couldn't find +11.
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10-19-09 12:12 PM #35
Originally Posted by pavyracer
So what ?
He has a responsibility to be truthful and nothing less or more. From the time he posted that pick until the close the line could move the opposite direction.
No one seems to complain when he has Colorado State at +6.5 and it gets bet up and the game lands 7. No one seems to complain when he has Louisville at a worse number than was commonly available later in the week and the game lands 13.
If he bets the game at +11 that is the only number he should post in his thread. Anything else is a fabrication.
While he was here , he basically answered every single person who posted in his threads. Asking him if the game was still a play at +8 is a productive way at obtaining the desired information. Complaining that he is better than you are or accusing him of lying not only fails to accomplish the goal of answering the question you want answered but also only serves the purpose of causing trouble.
He should post the lines he bets.
He does not have the responsibility of holding the hands of grown men and women and walking them up to the ticket counter and placing their bets for them.
