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Stack Paper, F tha Haters (NCAA Week 7)
Picks coming soon
I got strong plays & leans this week. From now on I will only be making three bets a week. The rest will be leans. I'm headed to class, but will be back to post.
Until then here are links to all NCAA posts that preceded this week
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-fo...-week-5-a.html -- actually Week 6
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-fo...sat-8-3-a.html --- Week 5
Copy & paste them.
My Record
(13-11)
Last edited by HoulihansTX; 10-12-09 at 12:48 PM.
Official Plays
Ohio -12.5
--- They are playing Miami (Ohio). I repeat they are playing Miami (Ohio). The past 3 years Miami(Ohio) has lost this game by 10, 9, and 15.
Idaho -11
--- This lined moved form -12 to -11 at my local book. This is why casinos make money in Las Vegas. haha. Idaho has been underdogs the whole season, now as favorites I still feel they dispatch this hopeless Hawaii team. Hawaii has been out-rushed by (-)644 yards. Idaho has out-rushed opponents by 344 yards. Idaho also plays in a unique arena, which gets loud. This should further disrupt Hawaii's no-huddle offense, that is without its starting QB.
Minnesota +16.5
--- Penn State is the most overrated team in the country with its #12 ranking. Penn State has played six teams so far. These teams are combined a (13-14). If you withhold Iowa, the combined record is (7-14). Minnesota is not an elite team, but the difference in the strength of opponent is staggering. Penn State is not blowing out a solid team like Minnesota. Expect a low scoring affair. Turnovers, and FG's abound.
Guys I'm done with my plays. I cut down the #, in order to put more $$ on each.
These are LEANS:
Arkansas State +1
Nebraska -6.5
Cincinnati -3
Pittsburgh -3
NC State +2.5
Iowa +1
Purdue +13
Houston -20
BYU -18
Michigan State -12
Washington +6
Air Force -10
Texas A&M -4.5
Colorado +10
San Jose State +20
Gl on your card Houlihans....where's our contest at???
Ohio rated as a lay for me I just ended up not playing them. Same with Minnesota, I really wanted to play them in this spot because Penn St simply hasn't shown a willingness to try and pummel teams.
Here's t a profitable week.
Ok, Ok I said only three, but after trolling the forum, and watching some lines move in my favor I had to bite. I'm going to wait to bet NFL, cuz that money is on these games.
Added Official Plays
Pitt -3
--- Pitt overcame a deficit of eight points in order to win the game against UConn. Also it's Idiot QB threw two INT's. That's the sign of a good team, and they are great comparatively within the Big East. Rutgers is a joke. They are much like Penn State in that they have loaded up on cupcakes, three of them D-1AA. Rutgers when playing some real comp got routed by Cincinnati. Then they beat Maryland, a horrible team. I think this line is way off, and Pitt doesn't lose until the Cincy game.
Houston -18.5
--- Tulane has lost this game by the following margins 28, 24, 38, 21, 21, and 3. Tulane hasn't won this matchups since '02. I think the consensus would be that Houston has improved over the years, while Tulane is a sinking ship.
I am on Ohio and I like Iowa. The line for Iowa is moving in favor of Iowa. I think they will win outright. I got them at +2.5
The rest of my LEANS:
Wake Forest +6
Buffalo -11.5
Colorado State +21 (Real Strong Lean)
New Mexico State +18 (Real Strong Lean)
Northern Illinois (-)???
Should jump on the Ohio B4 the line is no longer favorable. The Minnesota line will continue to creep up.Originally Posted by wal66
Ohio rated as a lay for me I just ended up not playing them. Same with Minnesota, I really wanted to play them in this spot because Penn St simply hasn't shown a willingness to try and pummel teams. Here's t a profitable week.
Very nice call on Pittsburgh, particularly your eval of Rutgers. This isn't the 2007 team. Also, Rutgers was playing toe to toe with Maryland (complete garbage team) and only pulled away in the end due to some turnovers; the game was much more competitive than the final score indicated.
I think I'm going to wait out the Iowa game, since to line movement has been so volatile. But should be favored big time. Wisconsin is a GLORIFIED HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL TEAM.
OHIO
I really wish I would have jumped on Nebraska -6.5. The line has trampolined on me to -9.5. That's way too much for an offense like TX Tech. Nebraska probably covers, but why sweat out a game that should be fun to watch.
My Strong Opinion
Ark St/UL Monroe OVER54
--- Ark St. has played much tougher opponents than, Monroe. This should help Ark St., since in those losses they competed. Those games should make them a better team for it. Ark St. has played Troy. They lost, but came in a favorite(-2.5). Troy is the Best team in the Sun Belt.
Monroe has beat the cupcakes in the Sun Belt, and has gotten routed by the solid teams out of conference. Monroe has no defense to speak of, but neither does Ark St. This game was won by Ark last year 37-29. Maybe some revenge going on for Monroe. But the solid play is 54OVER. I predict another shoot-out.
you should play more under dog my friend.....
When counting my LEANS my plays total (11)Dogs & (13)Favorites. Pretty balanced to me. I know my actual bets are all favs, save 1 dog, but my thought process accumulated a balanced slate of potential plays.
good thread here...think Minnesota is one I see logic in although Penn St. seems to have gotten it together recently...I don't follow the MAC so no clue on Ohio...also don't play totals (I stick to my strength which is sides) so I can't help you there...Houston is sketchy in my opinion laying that many on the road but there is a distinct overall talent difference, just Houston's D Line is killing them not letting them get off the field...no opinion on Pitt...hope this helps...GL
Houston got me back on their wagon after leaving Miss St. with the W. They are still a SEC opponent.
I don't think anyone in the Big Ten should have lines of double digits except for Ohio State. Plus Penn State gets fat off D-1AA schools, they are a joke.
My Ohio play is one based on the coaching, and talent superiority on the Ohio sideline. Trust me this is by no means a rivalry game.
Thank you for the input. GL on your weekend.
This line has plummeted to -7.5 at my book. I don't know why the line has plummeted, but I know Idaho is not a receiving much attention for its recent accomplishments.
Idaho is (5-1). In all five wins Idaho has been an underdog, and won SU. The most impressive being on the road @ Northern Illinois as a 15pt underdog. Idaho has faced SDSU, a similar team to Hawaii, and beat them by 14 as underdogs.
Hawaii is in shambles. They have lost the coach that got them to a BCS game, June Jones, now at SMU. His principles are still in place on offense, but the talent is not there. And its being taught by a substitute teacher. Since playing a D-1AA opponent in its home opener, Hawaii has been out rushed by at least 95 yards in every game. They beat a miserable Wash St. team, then from there have lost by the following margins 1, 21, 27. Without starting QB Alexander the deep pass is not a threat, and they have never been able to run the ball. This team lost to UNLV by 1 point, and I perceive that as two evenly matched teams battling. Now I don't think any of you respect UNLV as a football team, and neither do I. I attend UNLV, and went to the Hawaii game which they should have won.
Last edited by HoulihansTX; 10-16-09 at 08:05 AM.
I'm going to match my initial bet on Idaho, and then triple it. This line movement doesn't scare me, since the game is still played on the field. Where Idaho has a number of advantages.
My above write up is too good for you guys to overlook
Idaho will win by double digits and I don't think a write up is really necessary
1-0 so far.
On to tomorrow.
Last edited by HoulihansTX; 10-16-09 at 11:10 PM.
I agree, but I want to strike up some opinions. Also let people know I put a good amount of work into each play if they are interested in tailing my picks.
Opinions on the contrary would be nice.
I see that a good amount of touts are on the Hawaii side, even at +8.5. Its mind boggling, since Hawaii has looked like shit for the past 3 weeks. I mean they lost to UNLV... no defense, traveling across the Pacific = no chance/blowout.
houlihans,
also tripled my bets with Idaho. got 4k @-12, 2k@-8, 3K@ half -4.5 LOLOL never felt so sure about big bet. for the following reasons, which you probably know, but good to show-
INJURY REPORT (almost enought to start another offense hahah!)
-Wide receiver Jovonte Taylor (10/15, ankle) is questionable for Saturday's game against Idaho.
-Wide receiver Royce Pollard (10/15, stress fracture in left fibula) will miss Saturday's game against Idaho.
- Linebacker George Daily-Lyles (10/8, hamstring) will miss the remainder of the season.
-Quarterback Greg Alexander (10/4, left knee surgery) will miss the remainder of the season. Quarterback Greg Alexander (10/4, left knee surgery) will miss the remainder of the season.
-Linebacker Brashton Satele (9/5, shoulder surgery) will miss the entire season. Linebacker Aaron Brown (9/26, hamstring) will miss the remainder of the season.
-Quarterback Brent Rausch (10/15, broken right pinky finger) will miss Saturday's game against Idaho.
-Tackle Laupepa Letuli (10/15, left knee) is expected to miss Saturday's game against Idaho.
-Defensive tackle Chris Leatigaga (10/13, dislocated kneecap) is questionable for Saturday's game against Idaho.
-Wide receiver Malcolm Lane (8/9, academics) will miss the entire season.
I live in Hawaii and 99% of the of the bettors in this state is betting against them.
GL Houlihans. All your hard work shall pay off. LET'S GET PAID!
Good to see you loading up on a great bet, Flat.
But why the shrinking line? I still don't understand. But oh well. After I win Minnesota those profits go to the Idaho game.
I don't think the public is on to Idaho yet and the books are adjusting to even their books out!Good to see you loading up on a great bet, Flat.
But why the shrinking line? I still don't understand. But oh well. After I win Minnesota those profits go to the Idaho game.
When the BCS comes out this week we will see the Idaho lines be more consistent and on par to the actual team.
SportsInsights.com & Pregame.com are showing over 70% on Idaho.
GL on the card Houlihans....with ya on Minny and Idaho
Oh this is the last week I will be on Idaho most likely. They will lose value after this expected blowout win. The books, and Public undervalue this team. once they are 6-1 they will get inflated lines.
Ohio -12.5W
Idaho -11 W
Minnesota +16.5 L
Pitt -3 W
Houston -18.5 W
(4-1) Yep some close calls, but I cashed into the positive.
OVERALL
(17-12)
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