[Jeff Grant]

Teams on rise, fall this offseason

The college football offseason isn't as eventful as the ones in professional sports, but plenty of big news has kept fans (and teams) busy paying attention over the past few weeks and months.
Let's take a look at which teams have taken a step back -- and which have received a boost -- since the 2013 offseason began.
Trending down

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Most college football observers, myself included, had a similar response when they learned that Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson had been suspended from school.
"What?"
It was a pretty flooring bit of news for late May, without question. Vegas responded by pushing Notre Dame's odds of winning a national title from 25-1 to anywhere from 40-1 to 50-1. Golson, at least to the smarts, meant that much to the Irish's chances. Some Notre Dame fans told me they thought Golson could have -- or still could, I guess -- evolved into a Heisman-type player. While I never saw that, he's a nice player, and it will certainly have an effect on how the offense performs this fall.
When I covered the Oklahoma game last year, perhaps Notre Dame's best win, Golson's play in the fourth quarter was what helped deliver a victory on the road. He showed the earmarks of improving and being a player that Brian Kelly, at heart an offensive-minded coach, could build around to attain some balance with what was an elite defense loaded with NFL-level talent.
Kelly can talk about Tommy Rees playing some last season, but the reality is he threw just 59 passes and was only the occasional reliever to a redshirt freshman.
But potential was the most operative word when describing Golson.
"He was young, growing, but he was a threat," said one coach who followed Golson in high school, in Myrtle Beach, S.C. "They'll miss that threat, because they didn't have much else on offense."
And that's precisely why the odds sagged, although the Irish still present fairly strong value when some of the other schools in that neighborhood -- Oklahoma State, Nebraska and UCLA among them -- are considered.
Georgia Bulldogs
Steve Spurrier joked last year that he likes to play Georgia early in the season because it typically means a Bulldog or two (or more) is serving a suspension. So perhaps the Ball Coach got a chuckle last week (as he teed off?) when Mark Richt told reporters that safety Josh Harvey-Clemons would have to sit out the opener at Clemson.
One problem, on top of the fact that the Bulldogs are facing a talented team on the road: Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham had essentially been reworking the defense, one replacing a variety of starters, around Harvey-Clemons. He wanted to move the sophomore around, making him a sort of hybrid linebacker-safety, to offset what Clemson does with its tempo offense. And now? There's even more inexperience for a defense that lost 12 players who started a game in 2012. It doesn't make a win in Death Valley impossible, not with Aaron Murray and what should be an effective running game, but it doesn't help.
Oregon Ducks
I know plenty of coaches left for other jobs, but Kelly going to the NFL to coach the Eagles just feels different. It feels larger than a simple job switch.
Oregon was very close to joining college football's elite class of perennial title contenders, if it wasn't there already, and Kelly leaving makes you wonder what the future will look like. That's the case even if, with offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich's promotion, the infrastructure and philosophies will remain similar, if not the same.
We still have to see what Helfrich will do, even if most coaches I've talked to expect something close to the status quo. Remember, Kelly took the program to new heights. He inherited a good program, not a juggernaut.
"Phil Knight's still there, isn't he?" one coach said to me. The theory is that as long as the brand -- the uniforms, the cheerleaders and all that -- remains the same, Oregon will be fine. The Ducks had better be careful, though. Stanford, playing a different style entirely, is closing quickly as the class of Pac-12 North.

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Trending up

Stanford Cardinal
On the subject of Stanford, it received good news this spring when Tyler Gaffney decided he would give up minor league baseball to return to play college football. For a team attempting to replace Stepfan Taylor, a career 4,300-yard, 40-touchdown rusher, that was a pleasant development.
Gaffney rushed for 449 yards and seven touchdowns in 2011, mostly spelling Taylor when he needed a rare breather. No one is expecting Gaffney to suddenly become an every-down back or some sort of all-conference superstar, but he will be a welcome veteran presence alongside senior Anthony Wilkerson (914 career yards, seven touchdowns). They will be the muscle as youngster Barry J. Sanders, who redshirted last fall, gets settled. We're all in agreement about wanting to see that first ankle-breaking cut, aren't we?
Michigan Wolverines
When I visited Ann Arbor in April, it was obvious that Devin Gardner was comfortable in his skin as Michigan's QB1. He was walking around the practice facility glad-handing friends and strangers alike, behaving every bit as much as the mayor of the place as coach Brady Hoke.
Part of that was the experience he received last year after being promoted in place of the injured Denard Robinson. Part of it was knowing he should have staying power following the NCAA's decision to grant him another year of eligibility, for the 2014 season.
The idea of Gardner being in Ann Arbor another year has more than just fans excited. UM coaches told me recruits who would enroll next summer like the idea who knowing who their first quarterback would be.
Do not be surprised if Gardner, who threw seven touchdowns in the final three games in 2012, is a breakout star this fall.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
It may seem odd to list a team that lost one of its quarterbacks to a transfer in the trending up section, so before we get into the juicy stuff on Wes Lunt's departure and the restrictions Cowboys coach Mike Gundy placed on it, let's start by saying this: Oklahoma State should be fine at quarterback this season.
When I visited Stillwater last spring, it was clear that coaches were impressed with J.W. Walsh's intangibles and athleticism, and he certainly put up some impressive numbers on the field last season. In fact, in the new college football QBR metric being developed by ESPN, Walsh had one of the highest ratings based on per-play production in the nation last season, ranking among the likes of Marcus Mariota, Collin Klein and Geno Smith behind the pacesetter Johnny Manziel.
As for what's next for Lunt? Some thought Kelly and Notre Dame might take a run at him, but according to a report Monday from Joe Schad, Lunt is taking a long look at Illinois. Louisville also remains in the mix, which would be interesting with the Cardinals likely losing Teddy Bridgewater and moving to the ACC in 2014.
Many came down hard on Gundy for his reluctance to let Lunt transfer to a number of places. Coaches I've talked to couldn't understand some on the list. Southern Miss was one. I was told former OSU OC Todd Monken, now USM's head coach, encouraged Lunt to stay. And, really, what harm could it do the Cowboys if Lunt helped a program that didn't win a game a year ago?
I was told by one coach that the across-the-board SEC ban was related to a growing irritation by Big 12 coaches toward the SEC. (See: Bob Stoops' comments and Charlie Weis agreeing with him.) What's sparking that? The coach wasn't quite sure but thought it was sort of an aggregated aggravation.
The indication is that Gundy was, more or less, acting on behalf of the entire conference. But keeping Lunt from the entire Pac-12? That didn't make sense to the coach I was speaking with. He reminded me that the ins and outs of a player-staff relationship are more complicated than the general public can realize.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Back to Notre Dame QBs. If only Gunner Kiel had known what would happen to Golson, Kiel might be in line to start for the Irish this season. He has become college football's journeyman quarterback, and he hasn't even taken a game rep.
Technically, the door for Kiel -- who reportedly will transfer to Cincinnati -- was open to come back to the Irish. But, from people I've talked to close to the situation, evidently he was too far down the road to make another change. (Recall that Kiel initially committed to Indiana before switching to LSU before landing at Notre Dame, only to leave after sitting last fall.)
Can Kiel actually play? Would he have even bested Rees or Andrew Hendrix? There's no way to know, since all we have to go on is high school hype and some practice snaps. But if the Golson suspension had happened in, say, February, it might have been a different spring for Kiel -- and the Irish.
Let's see how he fares with Tommy Tuberville at Cincy. The Big East/American might be crumbling in terms of football, but someone still has to win it. As Bridgewater and Louisville showed the Big East last season, an elite quarterback can go a long way toward league success.

[Jeff Grant]

There are many ways to rank college football teams in the preseason. While some analysts focus on where teams should start the season in the polls, my rankings are based on where teams will finish.
Another factor to keep in mind is that these are not completely reflective of my power ratings, which are based purely on talent. A great example from this year would be Northern Illinois, who I have ranked No. 26 in my preseason top 40 ahead of some quality BCS contenders like Arizona State, Ole Miss and Oregon State. In my power ratings they are only No. 54, but the reason they rank higher in my preseason poll is the fact they face my No. 124-ranked schedule out of 126 teams, and should win 10 or 11 games this year.
Keeping that in mind, here are my preseason top five teams for 2013:

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

This year I am going for my third correct national champion pick in the past six years. Unlike most years, I am not going outside the box in 2013, instead picking the preseason favorite.

The Crimson Tide have it all this year on both sides of the ball. They own my No. 9-rated offense led by quarterback AJ McCarron, who was No. 1 in the NCAA in pass efficiency last year and already has won two BCS titles with the Crimson Tide as a starter. At running back, T.J. Yeldon returns after a record-breaking freshman campaign that saw him top 1,000 yards. The Tide also return their top four receivers, led by my preseason first-team All-American selection Amari Cooper. The only question on the offense is the line, which loses three All-Americans and a combined 126 career starts. However, the Tide still have guardAnthony Steen, who is an All-SEC-caliber player, and tackle Cyrus Kouandjio, who is a possible first-round pick in next year's NFL draft.
On defense, last year the Tide had only five starters back and still allowed just 10.9 PPG. This year they have seven starters back, including seven of their top 10 tacklers. They have my No. 1 set of linebackers in the country led by C.J. Mosley, who had 48 more tackles than any other Bama player last year. The Tide also have my No. 3 set of defensive backs, giving them the best defense in the country.
As far as the schedule goes, Alabama does have to play Texas A&M on the road in September, but has a bye week prior to that game. Keep in mind that last year when they lost to A&M they were coming off a draining, last-second win against LSU. The Tide also have a bye week prior to their home game versus LSU later in the season, and they avoid the top three teams from the SEC East in Georgia, South Carolina and Florida.
I feel this year's Alabama team is even stronger than last year's national championship unit, and the Crimson Tide are my pick to become the first school in history to win four national titles in five years.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

Last year the Buckeyes were coming off a 6-7 season but had a huge turnaround under new head coach Urban Meyer, going a perfect 12-0 despite not having a bowl to go to at the end of the season. This year they have my Heisman Trophy favorite in quarterback Braxton Miller, four starters back on the offensive line and solid skill players. The defense does lose all four starting linemen, but not only do I like their replacements, I also think highly of their back seven, which features two of my preseason first-team All-Americans in linebacker Ryan Shazier and cornerback Bradley Roby. This is one of the most talented teams in the country, as all eight of Ohio State's units rank in the top 25 of my individual position rankings.
The schedule is light, as the Buckeyes will be favored in their first 11 games, with the toughest road games coming at Northwestern and then Michigan in the finale. In Meyer's previous coaching stops at Bowling Green, Utah and Florida, the team improved in his second season. The only thing better than a 12-0 season is another 12-0 season followed by a Big Ten title and an appearance in the BCS National Championship.

3. Florida State Seminoles

The Seminoles let me down last year, as I had them ranked No. 1 in the preseason and figured they would go unbeaten. However, they had lost two All-Americans off the defense in DE Brandon Jenkins and CB/KR Greg Reid by the time the first game was over. The Noles were favored by at least two touchdowns in 13 of their 14 games and by seven in the other, but they blew two fourth-quarter leads and lost twice. FSU ended up having 11 players taken in the 2013 NFL draft, which was more than any other program in the country. The talent was there, but the ability to finish was not.
Despite those personnel losses and a tougher schedule than last year (FSU has to play Clemson and Florida on the road), this is a team that is capable of being a national title contender. Seven of the Seminoles' eight units rank in the top 12 of my positional rankings, with quarterback being the only one that does not. However, Jameis Winston has the potential to become a star redshirt freshman quarterback in the same way thatJohnny Manziel, Brett Hundley, Everett Golson and Marcus Mariota did last year.
The Seminoles do not have as clear of a path to the title as they did last year, but four of my nine sets of power ratings call for them to have an unbeaten season.

4. Texas Longhorns

Only three teams in the country have all eight of their units ranked in the top 25 of my position rankings -- Texas, Alabama and Ohio State -- and I have two of those teams slotted to play in the BCS title game.
The Longhorns are in the top 20 of each one, but it was their defense that was the problem last year. After leading the Big 12 with the fewest missed tackles in 2011 (they were also the No. 1 defense in the Big 12 in YPG allowed), they had the most missed tackles in the league last year. Injuries played a part, as star defensive end Jackson Jeffcoat suffered a season-ending injury after six starts, and linebacker Jordan Hicks, who had 23 tackles in the first 2.5 games, was also lost for the year. Both return for 2013.
On offense, the Horns return 10 starters and both quarterbacks, their top four rushers and five of their top six receivers. Overall, Texas' 19 returning starters are tied for the most of any BCS team in the country this year. They do have to face TCU and Baylor on the road, but five of my nine sets of power ratings call for an unbeaten season. I have not picked Texas to win the Big 12 since 2009 (the last season they won the league and reached the BCS title game), but I am calling for that this year.

5. Oregon Ducks

Had former head coach Chip Kelly not left for the Philadelphia Eagles, the Ducks would have been picked by many to make the national title game. But even without Kelly around, the Ducks appear to be in great shape under new head coach Mark Helfrich (offensive coordinator the past four years), with 15 returning starters. Quarterback Marcus Mariota starred as a redshirt freshman last year with a 32-6 TD-to-INT ratio as a passer and an incredible 7.1 yards per carry as a runner. He returns this year along with slotback De'Anthony Thomas, who averaged 7.6 yards per carry and chipped in 445 receiving yards. They also should have a top-20 defense, led by my No. 1 secondary in the country.
The Ducks' schedule is tailor-made for success, as they will be favored in all of their games with the possible exception of their road trip to Stanford. They did beat the Cardinal in Palo Alto two years ago by 23 points. The Ducks have been the nation's bridesmaids of late, finishing No. 3, No. 4 and No. 2 in the past three years, respectively, but they have the talent to break through this year.

[BigdaddyQH]

That looks a lot like a Phil Steele write up. If it is, you should say so.

[Fredvic247]

I really like this 2013 version of the Oklahoma State Cowboys as well Jeff, I think they are a dark horse to play for a title.