[bigboydan]

I see the line goes thru the roof, and everyone is on LSU in the Sugar bowl???

I know that ND hasn't been good in bowl games in recent history, but I can't be the only one here that finds great value with ND tomorrow night... or can I

[imgv94]

Value?? Razz likes them as well and I believe you two are crazy for liking em..

[bigboydan]

Razz likes them too uh? I did not know that one bro.

[Seattle Slew]

I'm on Notre Dame plus 9.5 here as well. I'm not a fan of the LSU coach. Everyone says how great his team is the last two years, yet somehow he lost 2 games both seasons.

[imgv94]

What is so great about Weiss? He has lost every big game he has coached at this level...

At least LSU doesn't lose by 20+ points to teams.. LSU was in every game this season late in 4th QTR..

ND was blown out early when they played real teams and lost those games by 20+

[onlooker]

I have no play in this bowl, but I dont think I could lay that chalk with LSU. If I were to play it, it would probably be with the Irish. But Im not, so I will just watch it and hope for a good game.

[Seattle Slew]

You're right on all counts. But sometimes stats don't mean anything with this type of layoff. I can see LSU coming out flat in this game and it being close.

What is so great about Weiss? He has lost every big game he has coached at this level...

At least LSU doesn't lose by 20+ points to teams.. LSU was in every game this season late in 4th QTR..

ND was blown out early when they played real teams and lost those games by 20+

[pags11]

add me to the crazy list as well...

[imgv94]

Have yet to hear any valid reasoning to merit a ND play..

[nosuzieno]

looks like some late love coming in as I have seen lines -8

[bigboydan]

Looks like were starting to see a little love for the Irish after all.


Heres the latest consensus numbers from carib:

Notre Dame vs LSU (Sugar Bowl)(FOX)
Notre Dame 41.09%
LSU 58.91%
36772 Bets

Just a few days ago that number was sitting at roughly 65% for LSU.

[hanco21]

Looks like this the year for Notre Dame. Watch Brady light em up.

[bigboydan]

Looks like the Mirage has this game currently at 7.5 right now. So anyone in Vegas can pick up the real nice price if they like LSU.

[hanco21]

still can -7.5 (-117) at pinny.

[nosuzieno]

If one were inclined to play the Irish, I would think the over would be nice companion.

[Razz]

Have yet to hear any valid reasoning to merit a ND play..

1. LSU cannot run the football at all. Broussard has been mediocre at best since the knee surgery, Justin Vincent was great as a freshman but has been a disaster since, and Williams is a freshman who gets few carries. Their best back is Hester, who is hurt, though he is likely to play a little.
2. Jamarcus Russell is the most talented QB in all of college football, but he's what I like to call a "video game QB". When you look at his abilities and his arm strength, you would think he would be a lock to win the Heisman and be the #1 overall pick. Yet, he was never invited to NY, and if he comes out, he is projected as a low first round pick. Why? He makes awful decisions. In the two biggest games this season, he absolutely killed his team.
3. Third and long. The way LSU calls plays, they will certainly experience a lot of third and longs tonight. Even bad defenses are capable of making plays on third and long. Notre Dame doesn't have a very good defense, but they do have an oportunistic defense. Russell will provide them with opportunities. I predict he throws at least two picks, and Zbikowski is liable to take one to the house.
4. Against the five best teams on their schedule, LSU scored 3, 10, 28, 28, and 31 points. Granted all those teams have better defenses than ND, but none had the offensive capabilities of Notre Dame either. This is not to mention an overtime win over hapless Ole Piss.
5. The five "home" bowl games have been New Mexico, Georgia, Texas Tech, Texas, and USC. All those teams got off to terrible starts (down 10, 18, 24, 4, and tied) except USC, and they were tied at the half.
6. The crowd will not be nearly as pro-LSU as most people seem to think. Notre Dame travels as well as any school, and that's why the Sugar Bowl was so happy to have them.
7. If you're a kid in Louisiana, how thrilled are you to play in your home state? Not very, when you probably should have been playing USC in the Rose Bowl.
8. Les Miles. He is the worst coach in the SEC now that Shula is gone. Look at how terrible coaching jobs have ruined some teams this bowl season - Minnesota, Tennessee, Michigan, Arkansas - while spectacular coaching performances have won games for outclassed teams - Kentucky, Boise State.
9. Charlie Weis. You're fooling yourself if you don't think the Weis/Miles matchup is worth at least 4 points here. Weis had a team that was thoroughly outmatched last season in the Fiesta Bowl. They were outgained nearly 2-1, and yet had the game tied in the fourth quarter, and appeared to take the lead with 10 minutes left, but the play was overturned.
10. Speaking of that Fiesta Bowl, a younger, not as talented Notre Dame team hung with an Ohio State team that had basically the same offense (sans Holmes) and an even better defense than the Buckeyes have this season. OSU was only a 4.5 point favorite in that game. Now, Notre Dame is a 10 point dog to a team that is as talented, but nowhere near as well coached.
11. Brady Quinn. He's the exact opposite of Russell. He won't wow people at the combine, but he's a winner and a leader. Most importantly, he makes very good decisions, and that's not the kind of QB you want to lay a lot of wood against.
12. The LSU secondary. It is the weakness of the whole team, and now they have a key DB suspended. Notre Dame certainly has the receivers to exploit it.
13. The luck of the Irish. Notre Dame has a habit of making bizarre plays when outmanned.
14. No one is giving Notre Dame much of a chance here. Hell, they're a bigger dog than Boise State was against Oklahoma, and people are still lining up to take LSU. When a public team such as Notre Dame starts becoming unpopular with the public, that is exactly when they cover. Perfect example - the Colts a couple weeks ago on MNF against the Bengals. Everyone had been losing with the Colts, and so they jumped ship and bet against them. Now, everyone has been losing with Notre Dame all season, most recently against USC, and they are finally jumping ship. That's why I'm jumping on.
15. The back door is going to be wide open, though I don't think it will be necessary.

[BuddyBear]

Great reasons Razz....I am not betting this game just hoping everyone comes through tonight. I hate ND a lot....but your reasoning is sharp and pretty much if I had to play this game it would be on ND.

[Dark Horse]

You guys just started me thinking about this game a half hour ago. So I'm just feeling things out at this point.

I have to think that after a month Weiss has a much better shot at crispness from his team than his LSU counterpart.

This is oversimplified, but the regular season is out the door now. Bowl season is about crispness. Example: USC was the dry match and Michigan was the wet match.

I just don't see how LSU could come out crisper than ND. Yeah, they were overpowered by Michigan, but not Monday's Michigan.