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SoonerBS Week #2 Plays and Write-ups
Texas Tech -26.5 (-120) for 2 UNITS -- What is there not to like about playing a Mike Leach team in this spot? A mediocre performance last week, an inferior opponent, and an opportunity to name their score . . . and they will. Tech didn't have any trouble scoring points and racking up yards last week as they spread the wealth by hitting 10 different receivers in their game. The only problem they had was Potts throwing 3 interceptions -- a problem I look for them to get ironed out this week. Tech may not be as good as last season, but they are going to be able to score and dominate weak opponents.
Which leads us to Rice. Rice lost to UAB last week, and although UAB is improved, it was evidence that this is nowhere close to the Rice of the last two seasons. Rice lost all their offensive studs from a year ago and brought back only 4 offensive starters. To make matters worse, there is a QB competition going on that was not answered last week against UAB. Fanuzzi will start this week, but the coach has already said he might have a quick trigger finger in pulling him. That is not something that is good to put in a young QB's mind.
Air Force +4.5 for 2 UNITS -- I couldn't believe we got AF as a "dog" in this game. I thought at the least we would be looking at a "pick 'em." Guys, Minnesota is not that good. This is a team that beat lightweight competition last season to go to a bowl game, but got beat handily whenever they played real competition. I was looking to fade Minny quite a lot this year as their schedule is tougher than last year's and this is the same team, but I took them last week thinking that Syracuse was more than a TD worse than Minny. I was wrong. I'm not wrong this week though as I KNOW Air Force is better than Minny. I don't care if this is their first home game in their new stadium, it is also the first time they have EVER experienced an option game like Air Force's. If anyone has any doubt whether the AF offense is in tune for this season, just look at the box score for last week's game against an FCS opponent -- 72-0 -- which also tells us that their defense is capable, too. I'm not a believer in Minny, but I am in AF, so I'll play the spread and the ML here.
Air Force ML +155 for 1 UNIT
Washington St +2 for 1 UNIT -- We already know that WSU has improved this season over last season. How do we know? They only got beat 26 points by Stanford this year versus the 58 points of last year. Seriously, WSU is still using two QB's, but they didn't look too bad last week. Even better was the fact that WSU NEVER committed a turnover against Stanford. I'm impressed with the fact that they hung as close with Stanford as they did, as Stanford is actually better than they were a year ago, too.
Now, here's the reason to take WSU in this game -- even though this is being played on a neutral field, it is still in the state of Washington, not in Hawaii. Hawaii was 2-4 SU coming over to the mainland and this year's Hawaii team is not near as good after they lost most everyone off their defense from last year. As evidence of their struggles, they barely beat FCS team, Central Arkansas at home last weekend. In a tale of two shit teams, Hawaii is shittier. I'll take WSU here on the spread and ML.
Washington St +110 ML for 1 UNIT
Arkansas St +24.5 (-120) for 2 UNITS -- The most points this same team (ASU brings back 15 starters off last year's team and 51 lettermen) allowed only 23.7 ppg and only two teams scored a high of 35 points on them all season long -- Troy and Alabama. Also, all season long they were never dogs of more than +23 points and that was against Alabama. This line is being inflated because of the hype over Nebraska and the win last week to FAU. While I respect Phil Steele, I do not agree with his belief that FAU should be ranked ahead of ASU in the Sunbelt conference. FAU only returned 3 starters off last year's 7-6 team and ASU went 6-6 and brings back many more as has already been stated.
Nebraska had their season opening romp last week against FAU, but they have a big road game next week against Virginia tech. If there was ever a game to put them on the map and show that they are worthy of the hype, it would be a win against Virginia Tech. I think this is where their head is going to be this week. I'll take the points.
Penn State -27.5 (-130) for 2 UNITS -- Last week, PSU had their way with Akron St while Syracuse played over their heads against Minnesota in the dome at home. This is the first road game for the basketball player, Greg Paulus. Paulus is going to face a defense that is 3 times better than Minnesota's defense, if not more. Joe Pa's team jumped out to a huge lead in the first half against lowly Akron last Saturday and then he threw in his substitutes to give them some experience for the rest of the game. But, Syracuse is an BCS team and it's time for Penn State to show that they can blow somebody out and please the alumni. With Syracuse showing that they could hang close to Minnesota last week, I figure Joe Pa will not want to keep the close within reach of this team. Last year they beat Penn State 55-13 and I see a similar beat down this year.
Tulsa -16.5 (-130) for 2 UNITS -- I don't think this line is going to get any better, so I bought a point. New Mexico is in a state of devastation. Texas A&M is not a great team, but they absolutely man-handled New Mexico last weekend and racked up over 500+ TOTAL yards. That wouldn't have happened on a Rocky Long coached team. they might not have done any better offensively, but the defense would have been stouter. So what are they going to do against a team that is offensively better than Texas A&M? Probably worse.
Tulsa looked impressive on both sides of the ball against Tulane last week. Not great for a first game, but impressive. I think Kinne is the real deal for Tulsa at QB. He played really good for his first official start . . . . . and that on the road! I think Tulsa will cover this line easily in this game. The fade New Mexico train goes on . . . . .
Missouri -19.5 for 2 UNITS -- This line continues to go up as money comes in on Mizzou. I like this line up to -21, but I wanted to get it short of the -20 mark so I went ahead and jumped on it. My preseason research did not show Bowling Green to be very good this year with only 11 starters coming back off last season. So, it was a bit of a surprise whenever Bowling Green beat Troy last week at home. But, I think it is likely more a testament to Troy not being as good as anticipated than it was to Bowling Green being better. BG has no running game and won the game last week due to their passing game. That makes them one dimensional which is never a good thing in college football.
Missouri surprised us all last week against Illinois upsetting them in a game that was never close. Missouri only brought back 9 starters from last season, but it should not surprise us that they were still good considering the fact that Pinkel has recruited good over the last 4 years that his team has been good. He has a 5* QB running the offense and he looked every bit as good as Boogereater from past years. Defensively, Missouri held Illinois to 9 points. Now, this Saturday, they play a team that is even more inferior than Illinois and they play them at home in Columbus. I think Pinkel will allow his team to rack up as many points as they want so he can try to prove to the conference and nation that his team has not left the championship scene.
I'm playing my "leans" this week to finish out my card. These are not STRONG plays and will only be played for 1 UNIT each:
North Texas State +2.5 for 1 UNIT -- I had North texas as an improved team this season and I had last week's game as a "play-on" game in my preview, but I lost faith and didn't play it. Now, I regret it. This week they open up at home against a traveling MAC team. I like fading the MAC on the road and I like home dogs.
Army -1 for 1 UNIT -- I think this is the year where we cash some money on Army. I had them last week where as dogs they won straight up against Eastern Michigan. Last season they went 2-0 ATS at home and I think they win this one straight up as well. The new coach and the new triple option scheme fits Army.
Houston +15 for 1 UNIT -- Last week's win against Georgia was a HUGE win for Oklahoma State. There was a lot of hype going into that game, and with the big win by Oklahoma State, the Cowboys are now treading in alien territory for their program being ranked #5 in the nation. This is a letdown game for them and Houston can score some points.
Wake Forest -3 for 1 UNIT -- This is a bounce back game for Wake and Stanford, though much improved this year with their new QB, will do well to hang within a TD of Wake. It's never a good scene for a rookie QB to start his first road game all the way across on the other side of the country.
Tulane +17.5 for 1 UNIT -- BYU goes from the air conditioned dome in Arlington to the steamy atmosphere of Bayou country. Tulane bounces back and BYU lets down here in this classical situational play.
Vanderbilt +14.5 for 1 UNIT -- DD dogs in SEC play are usually money. Yes, I know this is being played at night at LSU which is always a tough venue, but that is only worth 1 TD, not two. LSU struggled with Washington last week and did not prove that they are increasingly better than last season. They may still prove it this year, but I'll take the team that starts well in the season and is getting disrespected here by this line.
UNLV +7 for 1 UNIT -- I've decided to play the 4* play in Steele's weekly PowerSweep newsletter. UNLV is his play. These are usually money every year and I'm not going to ignore them this year. He is already out to a 1-0 start picking Texas A&M last week. UNLV is tough at home in the early season and Oregon state has had a history of slow starts.
Good luck, guys!
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Originally Posted by mcbaseball10
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