[BuddyBear]

Season's almost over fellows and I am pretty sad over it. It's like having a child go away for college or something. It's been an interesting year and we all know how difficult bowl games can be to cap. Lot of uncertainty with the long layoffs, coaching changes, neutral sites, intercoference matchups, warm weather sites, varying degrees of motivational levels, etc...

As a result of all of these complicating factors and other uncertainties I have chosen to play only 3 games. Who knows I may play more but right now I am sticking with 3 games. Please provide feedback if you can or suggestions.

Good luck fellows the rest of the way....

OFFICIAL PLAYS:

Florida St +4.5 (2 units)
Texas A&M +5.5
Arkansas -1

[bigboydan]

Loving your A&M play double B. Although, I will be playing them on the ML myself.

Good good bro

[pags11]

GL buddybear...

[Razz]

Good luck buddy, really like those last two.

[prickbeater101]

I like them all however I am leary about Fla.St. I will stay away from that one myself...good luck!!!

[BuddyBear]

Believe it or not, based on my research FSU I feel is my strongest play. I didn't feel that when I first started doing the research.

The reason I played them is more situational than anything else. UCLA has blown their wad agaisnt USC and even the week before that they had a huge win against ASU. They fall into a terrible spot ATS in this game: Bowl teams playing off back to back upset wins are 0-10 SU (2-8 ATS) since 1980, including 0-6 ATS as favorites. Also consider that UCLA is 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl games after they have beat the Trojans in their final regular season game. Finally, UCLA is 1-12 ATS away from home as favorites if they rush for less than 120 yards or more And they aren't going to rush for 120+ yds against FSU's defense. UCLA finds themselves in a terrible situation here and I'll take FSU with the points on a neutral site against a team with a defense like FSU's.

Good luck fellows.

[pags11]

interesting approach to that one buddy...didn't realize that trend...

[BuddyBear]

One down...two more to go. Let's get A&M tonight. Line is moving down like crazy...hope that is a good sign.

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Buddy, just curious as to why you like Arkansas so much? I was leaning towards Consin in that game, but I saw that ARK was one of your plays and wanted to ask you about it... Any light you could shed would be helpful! Thanks buddy

[BuddyBear]

Buddy, just curious as to why you like Arkansas so much? I was leaning towards Consin in that game, but I saw that ARK was one of your plays and wanted to ask you about it... Any light you could shed would be helpful! Thanks buddy

Well you'll probably also find it interesting that I live in Madison, WI. I've seen almost everyone of UW's games this year and a lot of ARK's games as well. Basically there are a couple things here that led me to select ARK. First, UW's strength of schedule is horrid. Bill Snyder would be envious of the non-conference schedule the Badgers played. Playing Bowling Green, Western Illinois (1-AA school), San Diego St, and Buffalo aren't very difficult. You'd be hard pressed to find a team who played a weaker non-conference schedule. Then, their Big Ten schedule did not include Ohio State, but did include Mich who they lost to by DD. The rest of the Big Ten was beyond horrid so the 11-1 record is very very misleading and really anything less than 11-1 would be surprising given that schedule.

Moreover, P.J. Hill for the Badgers, their star freshman running back, really started to wear down at the end of the year. He really had some poor games. He was probalby worn out by season's end but did not have a good final few games and then would be cause for concern b/c a large part of UW's offense is predicated on the running game.

Now, ARK did lose their final two games but really games they should have won...at the very least split. They put up 358 yds on LSU's defense and 298 of those on the ground. LSU has the top defense in the country keep in mind and if they can move the ball on LSU then it stands to reason they can move it on anyone. They also fell down to FLA 17-0 and came back to take the lead 21-17 before a costly turnover hurt their chances to win the game. They are a tough team. Thrown in the fact that McFadden unlike Hill has been consistent all year.....throw in the fact that they won the SEC west, played a relatively difficult schedule that included USC and Auburn and FLA and LSU and SC and Tenn and even ALA you have a team that is tested. Take into consideration they are well coached and have an experienced head coach. I can't remember the exact trend, but new coaches have a very poor ATS recrord in their bowl game if they make it the first year.

Now yes, UW has a top 10 passing defense but don't worry ARK won't be passing much. As long as Dick can hand the ball off, ARK should be able to control the game.

However, I will give UW a big edge in QB play. John Stocco is very solid and does not make many mistakes. Howver, Casey Dick is there to hand the ball off not throw the ball and if he can manage the game then they should be okay. UW also has an experienced defense even though there has been some off field turmoil since thier final game worth noting. But defensively (total defense) slight edge to UW but not by much.

All things being equal (as most of their stats are), the advantage here goes to the team with the stronger running game and more experienced head coach and more difficult schedule. Of course, I could be totally off but i find this game to be one of the top 3 games on the board.

Good luck Payton....

[BuddyBear]

By the way, I still think ARK -1.5 or -2 is a play...-2.5 or -3 probably not.

[BuddyBear]

Tough day with TXAM...after that first drive things loooked good but that was it. They could not have stopped CAL if their life depended on it.

I've decided to include another play for today....perhaps more but right now I am going to make Missouri an official play.

Missouri +3.5 (1 unit)

Record to date 1-1 (+.90 units)

Win

Florida St (+2.00 units)

Loss

TXAM (-1.10 units)


Pending

Missouri +3.5
Arkansas -1

[prickbeater101]

Great call on Fla St. Good stuff. About Mizzou. I have been a fan of theirs all year but want to jump ship as they are reeling right now. What can you tell me about them to get me back on board? Why do you like them? I just see what Org St did to Hawaii's passing game and imo I think Hawaii's passing game is better that Mizzou's.....am I wrong?

Thanks

[BuddyBear]

Thanks Prickbeater...

From the actual content (i.e. bod of work) of the two teams, The only thing I can say is that Miss/OSU are pretty even in almost every statistical category and if anything I'll give a slight edge to Missouri considering the way the Pac-10 has looked so far, backing a pac-10 may not be the best idea since 3 of them have been shelled so far. Special teams are about even I would say but where I do see an advantage is in Missouri's passing game. They should be able to move the ball against OSU's defense. I also don't see any real advantage in coaching. Both coaches are average to below average.

From the technical side, there are a number of trends that point to Missouri...not to mention that OSU comes in very hot which is not neccessarily a good thing going into a bowl game. Also, for what it is worth, the Sun Bowl has long been a dog series then again so was the Holiday Bowl.

Good luck Prickbeater....

[prickbeater101]

Great writeup Buddy...thanks. Like I said before I am a big Mizzou fan and won alot of money of them this year but a little worried here. But this is what I feel good doing. I am taking Clemson/Mizzou in a teaser. I like this bet. Clemson -5 and Mizzou +9.5. Yep, thats the way I am going..

Thanks again and best of luck

[bigboydan]

I was liking Missouri in this game before double B.

I'm just concerned about the 20 players and coaches for Missouri that have that flu bug right now. Thats scaring me off of this one.

[prickbeater101]

Hey Bigboy from what I hear the flu is NOT effecting any of the starters....as of yesterday.

[Aces]

Arkansas looks great to me Buddy GL.

[BuddyBear]

Thanks Aces....i like ARK a lot and am glad I got -1. Judging by the way the two Big Ten teams played yesterday, I am becoming slightly ever more confident with ARK. One of the main reasons I selected ARK was because of UW's pathetic schedule. I am not playing too many games just b/c of what has been happening and the strong season I had this fall I don't want to blow it all now. To me, this is pretty normal for bowl season....although a lot of blowouts I guess so far. I may make another play or two because I've gotten off to a good start with FSU and Missouri....not seeing much today though. I am going to do some reserach first and I'll let you guys know if i make a play but may have some stuff to do with my folks and I hate not being able to watch or listen to the game.

Updated record 2-1 (+1.90 units)

Pending

Arkansas -1

[prickbeater101]

Well the thing that worries me about Arkansas is that if they can't run the ball they will not beat you with the passing game. They have virtually no passing game. I am a big,big SEC fan and will always "pull not necessarily bet" for all our teams playing, but I am a little worried here. Granted Mcfadden is a special back but he can only do so much. Nutt have will some creative plays for Wisconsin but once again, is that enough? This is a dangerous game for Arkansas. I know Wisconsin is big and physical and if they pile it at the line of scrimmage, then it could be a long day for Ark. Do I think they can handle Wisconsin, yes. But they will need to play a great ballgame....just my opinion

[BuddyBear]

sorry fellows...no games to play today. Card looks very unappealing. However, I would lean to Iowa but I am not going to force a play today just to have action. That's a perfect way to go broke. I won't play NEV/MIAMI either...

[BuddyBear]

well fellows, I am a degenerate what can I say:

Official Play: Iowa +10 (-118) (.5 units)

Not thrilled about the juice but i lowered the unit size here. Good luck....

[BuddyBear]

Well the thing that worries me about Arkansas is that if they can't run the ball they will not beat you with the passing game. They have virtually no passing game. I am a big,big SEC fan and will always "pull not necessarily bet" for all our teams playing, but I am a little worried here. Granted Mcfadden is a special back but he can only do so much. Nutt have will some creative plays for Wisconsin but once again, is that enough? This is a dangerous game for Arkansas. I know Wisconsin is big and physical and if they pile it at the line of scrimmage, then it could be a long day for Ark. Do I think they can handle Wisconsin, yes. But they will need to play a great ballgame....just my opinion

Yeah...it's pretty simple I think in this game. If you think ARK can run the ball effectively on UW's defense and that UW can not match the same effort in the running game than it should be ARK who you play. If you feel that the UW defense can shut down ARK's running game then play UW. I am confident that UW can't stop ARK's ground attack.

[BuddyBear]

It could have been a great day yesterday but settled on one play and did that for half a unit. Should have played Georgia though...oh well. No play tonight on Nev/Miami. Howver, I have a slight lean to NEV +3.5.

Updated Record 3-1 (+2.40 units)


Pending Play

Arkansas -1

[pags11]

GL tomorrow buddybear...

[prickbeater101]

Dang Buddybear I was pulling for you bud...I knew Arkansas had a huge uphill battle trying to move those big Wisconsin boys out of the way. I was doing all I could for you from here but it didn't work out too well. Wisconsin played pretty well so my hats off to them...

[Razz]

All you can do is have the right side by a mile.

[BuddyBear]

yeah i was pretty upset about that game. It was very frustrating to watch that that the team that won the game statisically by a mile, outrushed them by like 200 yards, held their running game basically to nil and Stocco had his worst game of the year (yet still won the capitol one MVP), won the field position battle, won the turnover battle and still somehow managed to lose.

Really poor coaching from Arkansas to abandon the run so early and very poor play calling for the most part. Most disappoing was the qb play by Dicks and Mustain. I had reservations about the qb play as I knew it was a weakness but I thought handing the ball off and throwing a few times should not be that big of a problem for them...apparently they couldn't even do that with any level of success. I found myself asking if the 3rd string qb on ARK could have been much worse.

I'll tell you from now...ARK could be national championship material next year if their QB play improves drastically. Their running game, defense, and special teams are strong. Mustain and Dicks have a lot of work to do this offseason.

Keep an eye on ARK next year.


Wiscosnin had a great year this year and I still contend they are very overrated given their horrid schedule. They should be solid next year but their should be an interesting battle for the QB position next Spring with Tyler Donovan and I forget the other guys name but I think he is a Kansas St transfer and is suppose to be fast and mobile. Anyway...we'll talk about that stuff in the summer.

[BuddyBear]

Well I am done for the bowl season. 5 plays for me is more than enough. Upset about TXAM as I knew their was something about that line that was fishy yet I still played it. Disappointed with ARK though as I will stil maintain that it was the "right side" but also the losing side at the same time. Given the way that bowl season has gone for a lot of posters, I can't complain about the record and consider myself fortunate. Profit is profit I suppose and I want to keep this taste of success in my mouth. So I am done for the 2006/2007 college football season and have no intentions of placing a bet till March Madness.

Final Record 3-2 (+1.40 Units)


Good luck the rest of the way fellows and thanks for the comments

[pags11]

good job buddy...