[Jay Edgar]

These are purely on a yardage and point analysis that I've found works well in bowl season. Many of the lines are surprisingly close to the openers, but others (MINN-TEX TECH) bear no relation at all. I have had good success over the last few years using this as a handicapping guide -- the teams it points to have done well in the bowl games. I've bolded the 11 teams that these numbers point to most enthusiatically versus the opening numbers (at least the numbers that we have so far).


302 TCU 3.5
305 BYU 13
308 RICE E
312 SO FLORIDA E
313 SAN JOSE ST 2.5
315 UTAH 4
342 HAWAII 7
402 CENT MICH 1
404 UCLA 3
405 OKLAHOMA ST 4
408 RUTGERS 7.5
410 CALIFORNIA 4
412 CLEMSON 6
413 MISSOURI 3
416 SO CAROLINA 3
418 MARYLAND 3
419 MINNESOTA 6
424 BOSTON COLL 4.5
426 TEXAS 7
427 VA TECH 11
459 NEVADA 7
462 AUBURN 5
464 TENNESSEE 1 over PENN STATE
465 WISCONSIN 5
467 GEORGIA TECH E
470 USC 3.5
471 BOISE ST E
473 WAKE FOREST 2.5
476 LSU 7
482 W MICHIGAN 2.5
483 OHIO 3
490 OHIO STATE 10

[bigboydan]

I do agree with your Neveda number bro.

They may not have the talent level the Canes have, but they sure do play team ball. Then add all the troubles Miami is going thru right now, and that spells a good old fashion woodshed type game IMO

[pags11]

jay,

I see you working making your own lines...atta kid...

[Jay Edgar]

By the same method I apply to the bowl games, my opinion is that the wrong team is favored in the UMass-Montana game tonight. And it's a significant overlay -- as much or more than in any of the 32 bowl games.

Even counting for home field, I make UMass 5.5 over Montana and AppState 8 over Youngstown.

[pags11]

nice call on UMass...I saw them play Navy earlier this year and was pretty impressed...

[babaoriley]

what about Mass-AP. St? any insight?

[Jay Edgar]

Treating it as a neutral site game, I get UMass by 3.

[babaoriley]

Thanks Jay, I took UMass and the 3.5.

[Jay Edgar]

Playing games 4 points off or more . . . .

302 TCU 3.5
No Ill +12
L 0-1, -1.05u

305 BYU 13
BYU -3
W 1-1, -0.05u

308 RICE E
312 SO FLORIDA E
313 SAN JOSE ST 2.5
315 UTAH 4
342 HAWAII 7
402 CENT MICH 1
404 UCLA 3
405 OKLAHOMA ST 4
408 RUTGERS 7.5
410 CALIFORNIA 4
412 CLEMSON 6
413 MISSOURI 3
416 SO CAROLINA 3
418 MARYLAND 3
419 MINNESOTA 6
424 BOSTON COLL 4.5
426 TEXAS 7
427 VA TECH 11
459 NEVADA] 7
462 AUBURN 5
464 TENNESSEE 1
465 WISCONSIN 5
467 GEORGIA TECH E
470 USC 3.5
471 BOISE ST E
473 WAKE FOREST 2.5
476 LSU 7
482 W MICHIGAN 2.5
483 OHIO 3
490 OHIO STATE 10

[gummo]

I've got Troy tonight too

[bigboydan]

Add me to the Troy bandwagon as well fellas.

BTW, Very nice call on that BYU game last night Jay

[prickbeater101]

I like Rice tonite.

[Jay Edgar]

E Carolina and San Jose on Saturday.

On SJSU, the +4.5 and +172 that I have is long gone, but 3 and 140 is better than nothing.

302 TCU 3.5
No Ill +12
L 0-1, -1.05u

305 BYU 13
BYU -3
W 1-1, -0.05u

308 RICE E
TROY +6
W 2-1, +0.95u

312 SO FLORIDA E
313 SAN JOSE ST 2.5
315 UTAH 4
342 HAWAII 7
402 CENT MICH 1
404 UCLA 3
405 OKLAHOMA ST 4
408 RUTGERS 7.5
410 CALIFORNIA 4
412 CLEMSON 6
413 MISSOURI 3
416 SO CAROLINA 3
418 MARYLAND 3
419 MINNESOTA 6
424 BOSTON COLL 4.5
426 TEXAS 7
427 VA TECH 11
459 NEVADA] 7
462 AUBURN 5
464 TENNESSEE 1
465 WISCONSIN 5
467 GEORGIA TECH E
470 USC 3.5
471 BOISE ST E
473 WAKE FOREST 2.5
476 LSU 7
482 W MICHIGAN 2.5
483 OHIO 3
490 OHIO STATE 10

[pags11]

GL jay...

[gummo]

Nice call on SJSU ML, Jay.

[bigboydan]

San Jose St. looked like stealing today, and surprisingly it cashed with ease, and we both know that usually never happens that way.

Congrats Jay

[Jay Edgar]

Thanks.

I know it's easy to say with hindsight, but I really felt good about SJSU, Troy, and BYU going into their games, and I had major trepidation that No. Ill. and ECU would lay eggs.

Looking ahead, I'm excited about VaTech, WISC, and Boise most of all, then Wake and Missouri.

[hawk 5]

Really like virg tech game.

[Jay Edgar]

Agreed, Hawk.

Oh -- and Nevada also. Can't forget them.

[Jay Edgar]

Update

Good showing ATS.

Don't want to talk about the ML plays this week.
(MO, MN, Navy, NV)

PLAYING ALL GAMES WITH 3 pt DIFFERENTIAL

302 TCU 3.5
No Ill +12
L 0-1, -1.05u

305 BYU 13
BYU -3
W 1-1, -0.05u

308 RICE E
TROY +6
W 2-1, +0.95u

312 SO FLORIDA E
ECU +5.5
L 2-2, -0.10u

313 SAN JOSE ST 2.5
SJSU +3
W 3-2, +0.90u

315 UTAH 4

342 HAWAII 7

402 CENT MICH 1
MTSU +8.5
L 3-3, -0.15u

404 UCLA 3

405 OKLAHOMA ST 4

408 RUTGERS 7.5

410 CALIFORNIA 4

412 CLEMSON 6
KY +11.5
W 4-3, +0.85u

413 MISSOURI 3
MO +3
W 5-3, +1.85u

416 SO CAROLINA 3

418 MARYLAND 3
MD +1.5
W 6-3, +2.85u

419 MINNESOTA 6
MINN +8
W 7-3, +3.85 u

424 BOSTON COLL 4.5
NAVY +7.5
W 8-3, +4.85u

426 TEXAS 7

427 VA TECH 11
VA TECH -3
L 8-4, +3.80u

459 NEVADA 7
NEVADA +3.5
W 9-4, +4.80u

462 AUBURN 5

464 TENNESSEE 1

465 WISCONSIN 5

467 GEORGIA TECH E

470 USC 3.5

471 BOISE ST E

473 WAKE FOREST 2.5

476 LSU 7

482 W MICHIGAN 2.5

483 OHIO 3

490 OHIO STATE 10

[bigboydan]

That double dip of losers with Mo. and Minny ML's were nightmares for sure Jay.

[gummo]

Nice research Jay. 4-0 in the early games today. Hope it keeps up with USC and Boise

[Jay Edgar]

Thanks, Gummo.

I missed the Boise-OU finish!!
(Too busy typing in the next room!)

6-0 today.
12 of last 13.
15-4 for bowl season so far.


Wake, WesternMich and Ohio are left (and maybe OSU as well, if -7 -105 or better can be had).

302 TCU 3.5
No Ill +12
L 0-1, -1.05u

305 BYU 13
BYU -3
W 1-1, -0.05u

308 RICE E
TROY +6
W 2-1, +0.95u

312 SO FLORIDA E
ECU +5.5
L 2-2, -0.10u

313 SAN JOSE ST 2.5
SJSU +3
W 3-2, +0.90u

315 UTAH 4

342 HAWAII 7

402 CENT MICH 1
MTSU +8.5
L 3-3, -0.15u

404 UCLA 3

405 OKLAHOMA ST 4

408 RUTGERS 7.5

410 CALIFORNIA 4

412 CLEMSON 6
KY +11.5
W 4-3, +0.85u

413 MISSOURI 3
MO +3
W 5-3, +1.85u

416 SO CAROLINA 3

418 MARYLAND 3
MD +1.5
W 6-3, +2.85u

419 MINNESOTA 6
MINN +8
W 7-3, +3.85 u

424 BOSTON COLL 4.5
NAVY +7.5
W 8-3, +4.85u

426 TEXAS 7

427 VA TECH 11
VA TECH -3
L 8-4, +3.80u

459 NEVADA 7
NEVADA +3.5
W 9-4, +4.80u

462 AUBURN 5
AUBURN -2
W 10-4, +5.80u

464 TENNESSEE 1
PENN STATE +4
W 11-4, +6.80u

465 WISCONSIN 5
WISC +2
W 12-4, +7.80u

467 GEORGIA TECH E
GT +10
W 13-4, +8.80u

470 USC 3.5
USC +2.5
W 14-4, +9.80u

471 BOISE ST E
BSU +7
W 15-4, +10.80u

473 WAKE FOREST 2.5
WAKE +10
L 15-5, +9.75u

476 LSU 7

482 W MICHIGAN 2.5
WMU +7.5
W 16-5, +10.75u

483 OHIO 3

490 OHIO STATE 10