Originally Posted by
freeneasy
well that just doesnt make a whole lot of sense. to start with i dont know what the heck tcu is looking ahead to when the first bowl game starts on dec 19. after tcu beats air f they will be 10-2 and they wont be playing in the poinsettia bowl on the 19th so lets move a little further down the time line to where the more important bowls begin. starting on dec 28 you got 21 bowl games that need 42 teams to fill.
tcu is not in the top 25 but they are in the top 30, so a reasonable expectation can be that the earliest tcu will see a bowl game will be on dec 28 in the independence bowl. your not going to see tcu any earlier, so whatever game it is that tcu might be looking ahead to is a minimum 28 days away. you think usc is looking ahead some 38 days to ohio st with ucla up. tcu is not going to get caught looking ahead even tho their playing an air force team that lost their last game to a pitiful unlv team by 3 points when they were favored to win by 10.
but to be a little more realistic, yeah, why not, air force does have a shot to cover that 17 1/2 point spread against tcu and just as well tcu has, in my opinion, as good of a shot to if not a little better to cover that 17 1/2 point spread over air force.
overall my numbers give me
tcu 30.03
af 16.94
tcu -13.10 with air force getting a 4.40 point advantage to cover in this comparison
in the more recent games played my number comes up
tcu 39.84
af 16.25
tcu - 23.60. tcu getting a 6 point advantage to cover here
averaging out to
tcu 34.23
af 16.64
tcu -17.60 making this game in my prospective a 50/50 play, least wise as far as the/my numbers are concerned.