4 Star Selection
****Kent State 30 BALL ST. (-3.0) 21
09:00 AM Pacific, 24-Nov-06
Ball State has played better recently, covering 3 straight games with 3 point victories over Miami-Ohio and Toledo and an 8 point loss against an uninterested Michigan team. However, those recent results have skewed the line on this game against a Kent State team that is far superior. Kent is only 0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively with Julian Edelman at quarterback and the Golden Flashes should have no problems moving the ball against a horrendous Ball State defense that has given up 6.6 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average just 5.0 yppl against an average team. The Cardinals do have a good offense (by MAC standards), as they've averaged 5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl, but Kent State has a very good defense that has yielded only 4.5 yppl this season to teams that would average a combined 4.7 yppl against an average stop unit. The Flashes have held 7 of their 11 opponents to less than 4 yppl, including Virginia Tech two weeks ago, so don't expect Ball State to move the ball as they usually do. As you can see, Kent has a 1.3 yppl advantage when they have the ball and a 0.2 yppl advantage over Ball State's offense. Kent's problem this season has been their horrible special teams but even after factoring that in I still favor the Flashes by 4 ½ points in this game. I'm not concerned about Ball State's recent spread run, as the Cardinals only played 1 ½ points better from the line of scrimmage in those 3 games and were out-gained in both of their recent victories by bad teams. In addition to the line value Kent also applies to a 54-14 ATS statistical match- up indicator and I'll take Kent State in a 4-Star Best Bet at +3 or more, for 3-Stars from +2 ½ to +1, and for 2-Stars from pick to -2 ½ points.
4 Star Selection
****GEORGIA (-2.0) 26 Georgia Tech 12
12:30 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-06
I've been waiting for a good time to go against the overrated Yellow Jackets and this looks like the week to do it. Georgia Tech is 9-2, but they've played a pretty soft schedule and their compensated stats are not that impressive. The Yellow Jackets' offense has averaged only 5.2 yards per play this season with Reggie Ball at quarterback, which is not good when considering that their opponents would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Georgia's defense has allowed just 4.6 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit, so the Bulldogs have a 1.2 yppl advantage over Tech's offense. Georgia Tech is known for their good defense, and they do rate at 0.7 yppl better than average if I exclude the stats against Samford and Duke, when the first unit didn't play much. Georgia's offense has been playing pretty well the last 6 weeks and they are now 0.3 yppl better than average for the season (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), so Georgia Tech's defense only has a 0.4 yppl advantage. Aside from being the better team from the line of scrimmage, the Bulldogs have superior special teams and are at home. My math model favors Georgia by 10 points in this game and Georgia Tech applies to a very negative 15-57-3 ATS situation. I'll take Georgia in a 4-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less, for 3-Stars from -3 ½ to -5 points, and for 2-Stars up to -7 points.
4 Star Selection
****Marshall 27 SOUTHERN MISS (-7.5) 24
04:30 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-06
Marshall played a tough early schedule that includes blowout losses at West Virginia, Kansas State and Tennessee and the Thundering Herd were 0-5 straight up and 0-5 ATS in games against Division 1A opponents heading into their game at UAB. You may recall that my math model pegged Marshall as a very underrated team for that game and I rode the Herd to a couple of Best Bet winners. Marshall is 4-1 straight up and 4-1 ATS since my math model tabbed them as an underrated team and the Herd are still underrated. Marshall is not good defensively, allowing 5.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, but the Herd make up for it with a versatile offensive attack that has averaged 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. Overall, Marshall is an average team from the line of scrimmage, which is better than a Southern Miss squad that is 0.3 yppl worse than average on offense (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) and average defensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would average 5.1 yppl). My math model favors Southern Miss by just 1 point in this game and Marshall applies to a very good 53-15-1 ATS road underdog revenge situation. I'll take Marshall in a 4-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more, for 3-Stars at +6 ½ and +6, and for 2-Stars from +5 ½ to +4 points.
3 Star Selection
***Ohio (-3.0) 25 MIAMI OHIO 12
09:00 AM Pacific, 24-Nov-06
The Bobcats of Ohio are 8-3 straight up this season and they've lost only one game all season to a team that they were capable of beating (Bowling Green), as their other two losses were on the road at Rutgers and at Missouri. Miami-Ohio, meanwhile, is 2-9 straight up and one of those wins was against lowly Buffalo (by just 7 points). Ohio isn't much offensively (0.9 yards per play worse than average), but Miami is 1.0 yppl worse than average offensively and the Bobcats have the far superior defense. Ohio has allowed just 4.7 yppl this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defense) and Miami has given up 5.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team. Miami is particularly bad defending the run (5.2 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average just 4.4 yprp against an average team), which is an ideal match-up for a Bobcats' offense that prefers to run the ball since they're so bad throwing it. In addition to the advantage from the line of scrimmage Ohio also has great special teams and my math model favors the Bobcats by 10 ½ points. In addition to the great line value Ohio also applies to a 54-14 ATS statistical match-up indicator and I'll take Ohio in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 2-Stars from -4 ½ to -6 points.
3 Star Selection
***USC (-7.5) 33 Notre Dame 16
05:00 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-06
I've been waiting for this game for some time and Notre Dame has remained overrated by beating up on bad teams in recent weeks. The Irish, however, aren't good enough to compete with elite team with speed, which certainly describes USC. Notre Dame has played only one elite team this season and they were whipped 21-47 at home by Michigan. Playing on the road against a USC squad that is playing their best football of the year is a recipe for another blowout loss for the Irish. Last year's game was close on the scoreboard, but USC dominated from the line of scrimmage in that game, out-gaining the Irish 7.4 yards per play to 4.8 yppl. The Irish are mediocre defensively (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and they don't have the speed in the secondary to defend USC's great receiving corps. The Trojans' offense isn't as good as in recent seasons, but they are still 0.9 yppl better than average (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl) and have a 0.8 yppl advantage over the Irish defense. Notre Dame's offense isn't as good as it was last season and they have been only 0.5 yppl better than average this season, averaging 5.8 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. That unit has been held in check by good defensive teams this season, as the Irish have averaged just 4.7 yppl against 4 better than average defensive teams that they've faced this season (Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, and UCLA), who would combine to allow 4.6 yppl to an average team. USC's defense has shut down the more potent offenses of Oregon and Cal the last two weeks, holding those teams to a combined 4.2 yppl (those teams would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defensive team), and they have been 1.2 yppl better than average for the season (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl). USC has a significant advantage on both sides of the ball in this game and my math model favors the Trojans by 14 points. In addition to the line value USC applies to a solid 190-96-7 ATS home momentum situation and they are once again playing their best football at the end of the season (now 25-7 ATS under Carroll from game 8 on, including 3-0 ATS this season). I'll take USC in a 4-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less, for 3-Stars from -7 ½ to -9 points, and for 2-Stars at -9 ½ or -10 points.
2 Star Selection
**Colorado 20 NEBRASKA (-14.0) 27
12:30 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-06
Colorado has not quit on new coach Dan Hawkins despite some early struggles offensively. The offense is not great, but the Buffaloes have discovered what works for them and that is their running game. The Buffaloes have averaged over 200 rushing yards at 5.6 yards per rushing play in their last 8 games (against teams that would combine to allow 4.6 yprp to an average team) and they've actually moved that ball at a better than average rate (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl). I'll still rate the offense based on all 10 games with Bernard Jackson at quarterback (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl) and the Buffs should move the ball well against a mediocre Nebraska defense that rates as average against both the run and the pass. The Cornhuskers' offense is what makes them good, as that unit has averaged 6.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack. However, Colorado has a good enough defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl) to slow the Huskers down a bit and my math model favors Nebraska by just 9 points in this game. Colorado applies to a solid 137-62-1 ATS road underdog revenge situation and I'll take Colorado in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.
2 Star Selection
**PITTSBURGH 28 Louisville (-11.5) 30
12:30 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-06
Pittsburgh gave up 642 yards at 10.4 yards per play in last week's 27-45 home loss to West Virginia, but the Panthers will defend better against the more conventional Louisville attack. Pitt actually still has decent defensive numbers for the season even after last week's atrocious effort, as the Panthers have allowed 5.2 yppl against teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Louisville is 1.6 yppl better than average on offense (7.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), but Pittsburgh should be able to stay close with an offense that has been 1.0 yppl better than average this season (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl). The Cardinals are only 0.2 yppl better than average on defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team) and they haven't been as good away from home. Louisville is a great team at home (16-6 ATS under coach Petrino), but the Cardinals don't play nearly as well away from home (11-13-1 ATS) and they're 1-7 ATS in their last 8 as a road favorite of less than 21 points. Pittsburgh has lost 4 consecutive games straight up and to the pointspread, but my math model only favors Louisville by 1 ½ points in this game using full season stats and the math would favor Louisville by only 6 ½ points using the last 4 games for each team (when Pitt has played their worst). So, the Panthers are likely to cover even if they play at the same level as they've played during their losing streak. I'll take Pittsburgh in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more.
2 Star Selection
**San Jose St. (-6.5) 31 IDAHO 17
02:00 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-06
San Jose State was predictably flat last week after giving up a late lead in their near upset of Boise State the week before, but I expect the Spartans to bounce back against an inferior foe. San Jose's only losses this season have been to superior teams Washington, Nevada, Boise State, and Hawaii and they should control the Vandals on both sides of the ball. San Jose State has a pretty good offensive attack that has averaged 6.0 yards per play this season against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. That unit should have no trouble scoring against a porous Idaho defense that has allowed 6.3 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. The Spartans have scored 31 points or more in 4 of 5 games against sub-par defensive teams and the only time they didn't (21 points against Utah State) they averaged 6.9 yppl but turned the ball over 4 times. Idaho's offense has managed just 5.1 yppl despite facing a schedule of teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team, and the Spartans defense (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl) has an advantage in that match-up. Idaho also has horrible special teams and has a quarterback that has a history of throwing interceptions – while the Spartans have a quarterback that has thrown just 5 picks all season. My math model favors San Jose State by 13 points and the Spartans apply to a decent 153-77-6 ATS statistical match-up indicator. There is a situation that would go against San Jose State if they were favored by more than 7 points, so I'll take San Jose State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less only.
Strong Opinion
MIDDLE TENN (-9.0) 24 Troy State 21
12:30 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-06
This game is for the Sun Belt Conference title and my math model favors Middle Tennessee State by 11 points. Troy State, however, applies to a very strong 62-11 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation. I'll consider Troy State a Strong Opinion at +7 ½ or more and I'd take Troy as a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Arizona St. 20 ARIZONA (-3.5) 18
03:00 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-06
Arizona has pulled off 3 consecutive upset wins over Washington State, Cal, and Oregon, but I'm still not buying into the idea that the Wildcats are suddenly a great team after struggling for most of the season. Arizona's recent win streak has more to do with good fortune (+9 in turnover margin in those 3 wins) than it does with improved play, as they were out-gained in those 3 wins by an average of 39 yards and 0.6 yards per play. Quarterback Willie Tuitama appears to have returned to the form he had at the end of last season, but he still has averaged only 5.1 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback). Since the Wildcats have the same two top receivers as last season I decided to include Tuitama's great numbers from last season to gauge his likely performance level going forward. Tuitama's career average is 5.9 yppp against teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp, so I'll rate the Arizona pass attack at +0.3 yppp instead of -0.5 yppp. The Wildcats still have a horrible rushing attack even after last week's mysteriously good numbers, as they've averaged just 3.8 yards per rushing play this season and my overall rating for the offense is still 0.2 yppl worse than average. Arizona State's offense has been very inconsistent this season, but they've been 0.4 yppl better than average (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team). However, ASU's attack hasn't been nearly as good since averaging 7.7 yppl in their first two games. If I exclude those two games then I rate the Arizona State offense at just 0.3 yppl better than average (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl to an average team). Arizona State's offense rates at 0.5 yppl better than Arizona's attack and you might find it surprising that the defensive numbers also favor the Sun Devils. ASU has allowed 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl while Arizona has yielded 5.4 yppl to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average team. Arizona State also has better special teams and my math model favors Arizona State by 1 ½ points even after making adjustments that favor Arizona (i.e. adding Tuitama's good stats from last year to his sub-par stats from this year and excluding ASU's big offensive numbers from their first two games). I'll consider Arizona State a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
TEXAS EL PASO (-11.5) 40 Memphis 23
06:00 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-06
Memphis has covered the spread in two consecutive games after starting the season 0-7-1 against the number. The Tigers are still overrated and have one of the very worse pass defenses in the nation, allowing 7.9 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average only 5.5 yppp against an average defensive team. UTEP's Jordan Palmer is having a good year throwing the football (7.6 yppp against teams that would combine to allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback) and he should have no trouble finding open receivers in this game. My math model favors UTEP by 17 points and they are playing to become bowl eligible. Teams that are one game under .500 or at .500 are 29-7 ATS as home favorite of more than 4 points in their regular season finale, so there is some technical support for the Miners. I'll consider UTEP a Strong Opinion at -13 points or less and I would take UTEP for a 2-Star Best Bet if the line goes down to -10 or less (which is doubtful).
it would be sick if he was playing the opposite, so he posted these and then waited for the line movement and then faded what he told everyone to play, eventually people would catch on but damn lol
Prob with using touts on limited basis:
Let me qualify this by stating that he is a very capable handicapper but problem is:
Doc would be the first, and those of us around long enough know this, that to hit 60% consistently over the long haul is about the best you can hope for. So, when a hot tout comes along, chances are they are hitting over that before one starts following them, with the late coming sheep assuming the good times will continue. But then, the market corrects itself. Doc was one fire early but lately, not (yesterday I think 12-12 ats stars). I still enjoy reading his writeups and I do appreciate the time forum posters invest in making them available, I guess this is just a word of caution.
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