take Purdue in a 3- Star Best Bet at -12 points or less and for 2-Stars from -12 ˝ to -14 points.
take Army in a 3-Star Best Bet at +30 points or more and for 2-Stars from +28 to +29 ˝ points.
take Boston College in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less while making the Eagles a strong opinion at -7 ˝ or -8 points.
take Oregon in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less.
take Wake Forest in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 3-Stars at +3 or more.
take Louisiana Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more and for 3-Stars at +21 points or more.
consider Central Michigan a Strong Opinion if they remain favored by more than 3 points, but I'll Upgrade Central Michigan to a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
consider Duke a Strong Opinion at +26 points or more and I'll make Duke a 2-Star Best Bet at +28 points or more.
consider Iowa State a Strong Opinion at +14 points or more and as a 2-Star Best Bet at +16 points or more.
consider Arizona State a Strong Opinion at -4 or -3 ˝ points and I'd take Arizona State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less
Dr. Bob thursday football pick
OHIO (-4.0) 24 Akron 14
Akron is a solid team from the line of scrimmage, averaging 5.3 yards per play on offense (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and allowing 4.9 yppl on defense (to teams that would average 4.8 yppl). The Zips are actually better than Ohio from the line of scrimmage, as the Bobcats are 0.9 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.2 yppl better than average defensively. Akron’s problem is their special teams and Ohio’s strength is their special teams so the Bobcats should enjoy much better field position in this game and turn their yards into points at a more efficient rate. My math model favors Ohio by 10 points, so I’ll lean with the Bobcats minus the points.
Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection ***PURDUE (-10.0) 41 Indiana 20
09:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
Purdue has not had the season that their fans anticipated, but the Boilermakers have been able to beat the teams that they are capable of beating, registering wins and spread wins against all 5 Big 10 teams they've faced that currently have losing records - Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Illinois. I'll look for that pattern to continue this week as the Boilermakers' potent attack ( 6.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) will score with ease against an Indiana defense that is 0.9 yppl worse than average (6.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense) and is especially horrible defending the pass (8.1 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.3 yppp). Purdue has had their defensive issues this season (0.5 yppl worse than average), but Indiana is a mediocre offensive team that won't be able to keep up with what their defense allows. Purdue is coming off consecutive road wins and they qualify in a very good 56-16 ATS home favorite momentum situation as well as a 93-41-4 ATS last home game angle. Indiana, meanwhile, is ready for the season to be over after getting whipped the last two weeks and the Hoosiers apply to a negative 33-75-2 ATS last game road team situation. My math model favors the Boilermakers by 14 points in this game and I'll take Purdue in a 3- Star Best Bet at -12 points or less and for 2-Stars from -12 ˝ to -14 points.
3 Star Selection ***Army 13 NOTRE DAME (-31.5) 34
11:30 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
A lot of people find it surprising that Notre Dame has not won a game by more than 26 points in two seasons under coach Charlie Weis, especially given that they've been favored by 23 points or more 4 times and by 30 plus points twice. The Irish are 0-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 21 points under Weis and it will be impossible for him to get his team focused on this game with their date against USC coming next week. Notre Dame also isn't good enough to be favored by this many points over a scrappy Army team hasn't won many games under coach Bobby Ross (9-23 straight up) but doesn't get blown out very often. Army is 7-3 ATS as an underdog of 14 points or more and they lost by just 4 points as a 27 point underdog to Texas A&M in their only such game this season. There are some general situations that favor Army to bounce back from their 7-43 loss at Air Force and they've had an extra week to prepare for this game. Army applies to a very good 88-21-2 ATS big road underdog bounce-back situation and that angle is 51-7-1 ATS if the opponent is on a win streak of 3 games or more – which assures that they are likely to be overlooking the big dog off a horrible performance. By the way, that 51-7-1 subset has won 35 consecutive times since 1995! My math model favors Notre Dame by just 26 ˝ points. Army has been turning the ball over at a very high rate ( 3.2 turnovers per game), but Notre Dame doesn't force too many turnovers and the math would favor the Irish by just 30 points if they are +2 in turnover margin instead of the +1.4 that my math model predicts. I took a horrible Stanford as a big dog against Notre Dame for an easy spread win earlier this season and I don't see the Irish playing with full intensity in this game either (they're just 1-7 ATS at home after consecutive wins under Weis). I'll take Army in a 3-Star Best Bet at +30 points or more and for 2-Stars from +28 to +29 ˝ points.
2 Star Selection **BOSTON COLLEGE (-7.0) 32 Maryland 18
09:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
Maryland is the worst 2 loss team in the nation and the Eagles will help prove my point with an easy win in their home finale. The Terrapins are just barely better than average offensively, as they've averaged 5.3 yards per play with starting quarterback Sam Hollenbach on the field, against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. Hollenbach and company will have trouble moving the ball against a solid Boston College defense that is good against both the run ( 4.1 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp) and the pass (5.2 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.3 yppp). Overall the Eagles are 0.8 yppl better than average on defense, giving them a significant edge over Maryland's attack. Boston College also has the advantage when they have the ball, as the Eagles have averaged 5.4 yppl with Matt Ryan at quarterback (he missed the Buffalo game) while facing teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team. Maryland has given up 5.6 yppl this season to teams that would average just 5.2 yppl against an average defense, so they aren't likely to slow down the Eagles' offense in this game. Maryland does have great special teams, as they usually do every year, but Boston College is only 1.4 points worse in special teams and my math model favors the Eagles by 14 points in this game. BC has a very profitable 60% chance of covering at -7 points, based on the historical predictability of my math model, and I'll take Boston College in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less while making the Eagles a strong opinion at -7 ˝ or -8 points.
2 Star Selection **OREGON (-13.0) 30 Arizona 9
12:30 PM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
Oregon has a habit of beating up on mediocre or bad teams at home, as evidenced by their 24-11 ATS mark when hosting a team with a win percentage of .500 or lower (9-0 ATS recently). The Ducks should be in a mood to kick some ass after getting whipped at USC last week and they apply to a solid 137-67-6 ATS blowout bounce-back situation. The best part of that angle doesn't apply, but I don't need much technical support to get on the side of the Ducks in this game against the suddenly overrated Wildcats. Arizona has upset Washington State and Cal in consecutive weeks, but they were out-gained in those two upsets by an average of 4.3 yards per play to 5.8 yppl – so they really aren't playing any better than they have been all season. Arizona has been a bit better this season with Willie Tuitama at quarterback but his return coinciding with the two upset wins is just a fluke since the offense really hasn't played that well (as noted above). For the season the Wildcats have averaged just 4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team, and they're still 0.9 yppl worse than average with Tuitama at quarterback. Tuitama will have no success throwing against an Oregon defense that ranks among the best in the nation, allowing just 4.4 yards per pass play this season to teams that would combine to average 6.6 yppp against an average team. Oregon is 0.3 yards per rushing play below average defensively, but Arizona is a horrible running team (just 3.5 yprp against teams that would allow 4.6 yprp) – so the Wildcats are not likely to take advantage of Oregon's one minor defensive flaw. Arizona does have a solid defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average stop unit), but Oregon is 1.0 yppl better than average offensively and the Ducks have the advantage in that match-up. Overall my math model favors Oregon by 18 points in this game and the line would have been that high two weeks ago before Arizona pulled off two lucky upset wins while being out-gained by 1.5 yppl. I'll take Oregon in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less.
2 Star Selection **WAKE FOREST 20 Virginia Tech (-2.0) 12
04:00 PM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
There shouldn't be much more doubt about Wake Forest being for real after last week's resounding 30-0 victory at Florida State. The Demon Deacons have always played their best against good teams, as their mis-direction offense tends to level of playing field against athletically superior teams. It also tends to keep less talented teams close, which has made Wake Forest a bad bet against lesser teams. The underdogs is now 45-17-1 ATS in Wake Forest games since Jim Grobe took over as head coach, including 9-0 ATS this season. That is not the reason I'm playing Wake Forest this week, since they are not really much of an underdog. The reason for the play is 32-6-1 ATS situation that applies to Wake Forest that is based on last week's shutout win. That situation is 18-1-2 ATS when applying to home teams and has a solid 59% chance of covering at a fair line. My math model favors Wake Forest by ˝ a point and I'll take Wake Forest in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 3-Stars at +3 or more.
2 Star Selection **LOUISIANA TECH 23 Nevada (-20.0) 34
05:00 PM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
Nobody wants to be on a Louisiana Tech team that has allowed an average of 41.6 points per game, especially against a Nevada squad that has covered the spread in 8 consecutive games. However, those facts are the reason why Louisiana Tech is a good play this week. The Bulldogs apply to a 50-25-3 ATS big home underdog angle that plays on teams with a bad defense and Nevada is only 9-1 ATS this season because they are +1.2 per game in turnover margin, which isn't likely to continue (my math model projects +0.4 in TO margin for the Wolf Pack today). What is hidden by Nevada's great pointspread run is their horrible run defense ( 5.6 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average only 4.5 yprp against an average defense), and teams that allow 5.0 yprp or more are just 68-108-3 ATS as a road favorite of 10 points or more. The Wolf Pack apply to a very negative 21-65-1 ATS subset of that angle and Louisiana Tech has a freshman in Daniel Porter that has averaged 5.9 ypr since burning his red-shirt in game 4. In 7 games since Porter starting play the Bulldogs have averaged 5.2 yprp (against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) and my math model projects 6.3 yprp for Louisiana Tech in this game. Nevada does have an excellent pass defense, but Bulldogs' quarterback Zac Champion is a decent passer ( 6.0 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback). Louisiana Tech's offense should move the ball well enough to score enough points to cover the big number in this game, especially given that the technical analysis is in their favor. Louisiana Tech also tends to play better at home, as they are 20-36-1 ATS under coach Jack Bicknell away from home and 17-14 ATS at home, including 9-3 ATS following a game in which they lost straight up and to the pointspread. My math model favors Louisiana Tech by just 12 ˝ points and they'd be favored by just 17 points if they were their typical +1.2 in turnover margin. So, there is line value even if Nevada continues to get lucky with the turnovers, and I'll take Louisiana Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more and for 3-Stars at +21 points or more.
Friday Strong Opinion
Central Mich (-3.5) 31 NORTHERN ILL 21
05:05 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-06
I expected Northern Illinois to be very good running the ball again this season with Garrett Wolfe returning for his senior season and the Huskies were the best running team in the nation their first 6 games ( 7.7 yards per rushing play). However, opponents have stacked the line and Wolfe has been bothered by a sore hamstring and the Huskies have averaged a pathetic 62 rushing yards at 2.5 yprp in their last 4 games and teams will continue to put 8 or 9 guys in the box to stop the run until the Huskies prove that they can beat you with the pass. Quarterback Phil Horvath is a decent passer, but he's actually gotten worse the last 4 games too, which doesn't make a lot of sense since there are less defenders focused on the pass. Northern Illinois is still an average offensive team for the season ( 6.0 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team), but the Huskies have averaged just 4.4 yppl in their last 4 games against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack. Northern Illinois has averaged 3.9 yppl or less in 3 of those 4 games with the exception being against a horrible Temple defense, and Central Michigan has one of the best defensive units in the MAC and the rate a bit better than average defensively on a national scale ( 4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl). Central Michigan is also 0.1 yppl better than average offensively and they should move the ball very well against a bad Northern Illinois defense that's allowed 5.8 yppl this season to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average defensive unit. Overall, my math model favors Central Michigan by 3 ˝ points, which is right where the line has settled, but that number would be higher if Northern Illinois continues to play at the much lower offensive level that they've played at recently. Northern Illinois' upset home loss to Toledo last Tuesday is not a good omen for the Huskies today, as that loss set them up in a very negative 12-51 ATS situation. The Chippewas are unbeaten in MAC play and they should stay that way. I'll consider Central Michigan a Strong Opinion if they remain favored by more than 3 points, but I'll Upgrade Central Michigan to a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Duke 10 GEORGIA TECH (-26.0) 31
10:30 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
Georgia Tech doesn't have a good enough offense to be such a big favorite, as the Yellow Jackets have averaged just 5.1 yards per play with starting quarterback Reggie Ball in the game (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). Duke has a porous defense, but my math model only projects 5.8 yppl and 31 points for Georgia Tech in this game – which will make it tough to cover a nearly 4 touchdown spread. Georgia Tech does have a good defense ( 4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average stop unit), but my math model projects the Dukies with 11 points and favors the Yellow Jackets by just 20 ˝ points. Georgia Tech is only 3-10-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite under coach Chan Gailey and the Yellow Jackets are only 12-20-1 ATS after a victory in his tenure (1-8-1 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more). With their rivalry game with Georgia coming up next week I just don't see Georgia Tech being fully focused on Duke. I'll consider Duke a Strong Opinion at +26 points or more and I'll make Duke a 2-Star Best Bet at +28 points or more.
Strong Opinion
IOWA ST. 21 Missouri (-14.5) 30
11:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
Iowa State is 0-6 straight up and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games and head coach Dan McCarthy will be coaching his last game in Ames after 12 years on the job. I expect the Cyclones to rally for their departing coach and underperforming teams can be good plays in their finale at home. In fact, Iowa State applies to a solid 34-10-2 ATS bounce-back situation that plays on big home underdogs in their final game that have been struggling. Missouri, meanwhile, applies to a negative 15-47 ATS late season off a bye angle and the Tigers are not as good defensively without star defensive end Brian Smith (their all time sack leader), who has missed the last 3 games and is out for the rest of the season. My math model favors Missouri by just 10 ˝ points, but Iowa State has been allowing more points defensively than their stats would dictate since they have been horrible in 3rd down defense. If I adjust for that then I get a fair line of Missouri by 14 points. So, the line is at least fair and the situations favor Iowa State. I'll consider Iowa State a Strong Opinion at +14 points or more and as a 2-Star Best Bet at +16 points or more.
Strong Opinion
ARIZONA ST. (-4.0) 27 UCLA 17
07:15 PM Pacific, 18-Nov-06
Both of these teams are coming off good wins last week, but Arizona State is in a better position to play well again. The Sun Devils apply to a solid 89-47-4 ATS last home game situation and they've been better at home under coach Koetter (21-14 ATS) than they've been on the road (11-19 ATS). My math model favors Arizona State by just 3 ˝ points and the situation isn't strong enough to make the Sun Devils a Best Bet without some line value. I'll consider Arizona State a Strong Opinion at -4 or -3 ˝ points and I'd take Arizona State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
Thursday,November 16
College Best Bets 367-189-14 (66%) on a Star Basis Since 2004!!
48-16-2 on College Best Bets Rated 3-Stars or Higher Since 2005!!
College Best Bets 35-18-2 Last 9 Weeks!!
Both 4-Stars win with New Mexico +7 1/2 and San Jose State +14!!
I'm now 36-21-3 for the season on my College Best Bets and 100-53-7 on a Star Basis based on lines at the time of release (1-0 on 5-Star, 5-0 on 4-Stars, 15-11-1 on 3-Stars and 15-10-2 on 2-Stars). The lines have been moving on my games within a minute or two of my release to my monthly and season subscribers so I am keeping track of my record for those that missed getting the games at the line when I sent them out. The Best Bet record based on grading the games after the line moves, on games that still qualify as Best Bets, is still a very profitable 75-42-7 on a Star Basis (64%) and last year's incredible 74% on a Star Basis (136-49-5) would have still been 69% using lines after the line move. So, I'm still very profitable even if you do get the games in after the lines move and play the games according to the Star rating at the line you're getting. A Best Bet that is at the minimum line needed to qualify as a 2-Star Best Bet is still a 57% play, which is still very good, so you should expect to win in the long run as long as you play the games that qualify as Best Bets.
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**Dr.Bob's World Famous Picks**ending 11/18
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