Was discussing this game in a different thread but decided to make a thread on it.
When it comes to these bottom of the barrel teams, motivation plays a huge part. That's why you have teams like UMass beating Akron even tho they were almost 14 pt dogs. They didn't want to have a 0 win season so they were able to make it happen against Akron.
Both UTSA and Idaho have only one FBS win, both beating NMSU by similar margins. I think UTSA being a TD favorite on the road is too much against two similarly bad teams. UTSA are also overvalued because of 5 wins against FCS teams.
This is Idaho's last home game and the last winnable one of the season after being walloped by BYU. Even though outmatched in that game, they were still playing defense (even tho against BYU's second string) and trying to put up points.
UTSA, on the other hand, will be playing their last game at home against a winnable Texas St team (maybe a bottom of barrel texas rival?). I think the motivation angle weighs heavily to Idaho at least covering or winning outright here. Probably worth a little on the ML too.
Said this on the other thread and will say it again, don't think Idaho is better than Tx St, especially after the latter dickslapped the former.
UTSA has done pretty good in their first year, played close against LT, scored well against SJSU. Both are the class of the WAC and both decimated Idaho.
But laying a TD on them is a little too much for me, even though they could easily do it.
Right, I think Texas St is better than Idaho too. I read your comment wrong in the other thread. Luckily Idaho isn't playing them again. My point is that Idaho and UTSA are close enough in talent where the motivation + home field +6.5 points is the better play. Same logic behind how Akron could probably beat UMass by 14 pts but motivation to get that first win was the key factor. One of my biggest bets two years ago was a winless Akron team going up against 1-8 Eastern (or Western?) Michigan. Akron pulled out a W there too even though they were clearly the worst team in the league.
Just putting you guys on an angle I really had success with.
I agree with the Umass part, that was their best game to win and they had been competing better lately so it's actually surprising Akron was favored by 17.
The only reason Im not putting my house on UTSA is because they are favored, it is just too much. But there is zero chance I would ever go with Idaho, they covered twice this year and once was last week's asterisked one.
^
Yeah I had to hold my nose when betting Akron 2 years back and UMass last week but it worked out pretty well. If you consider that the only people that would bet on these sorts of games probably feel the same way about Idaho as you do, then they must be at least somewhat undervalued due to perception alone. Or maybe I'm just being contrarian for the sake of it. Oh well, go Vandals.
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Worst Games of the Year Picks: UTSA @ Idaho +6.5
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